WBB: How will this year's team develop?

WBB: How will this year's team develop? - Printable Version

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WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 09-24-2012

***EDIT: Reposted from the beginning of the season.Â See how your predictions turned out. ***

This year is shaping up to be a very challenging one for Tara to coach, with the loss of Nneka and the injury to Aly.Â I'm really wondering what this team is going to look like.

Guards.Â With Alex Green and Jasmine Camp coming back from injuries to join last year's starters Amber Orrange and Toni Kokenis, plus newcomer Kiran Lakhian and junior Sara James--we are much deeper at guard this year than last.Â I wonder if we will see some three guard sets--which sounds somehow "wrong" for Stanford.Â Jasmine showed us early last season that she could be productive against the likes of Connecticut (before her injury), while we have not seen Alex or Kiran play yet.Â I think we have too many great guards not to use three of them at the same time on occasion.Â Fortunately Toni and Amber both showed the ability to drive to the basket last year, which gave us a new dimension.Â But Stanford's three point shooting last year was the worst in team history, and there could be a lot of rotation until at least one of them gets hot from beyond the arc.Â We can't rely completely on three point shooting from a wing like Bonnie--a shooting guard is supposed to shoot the three, and we need someone who can do it in consistently in at least the mid 30% range.

Posts.Â Chiney Ogwumike will clearly get as much time as she can handle, but I am guessing that with Nneka gone, every team will double Chiney and force us to use someone else to score.Â That person will often be Joslyn Tinkle, who has always been good offensively and might have a big year now that she will probably get a lot of minutes.Â Her defense seemed to improve last year, and at times her offense was superb--but there were other times she struggled to score against taller, physical teams.Â Who will be the primary backups to those two posts?Â With Aly out it might be that Tess Picknell will get quite a lot of time for a frosh--her reputation is as a defensive stopper, it will be interesting to see if she can develop her offensive game.Â Perhaps she could become a Kali Benett type player.Â Tess may be asked to body up Griner when we play Baylor, for example.Â But the adjustment to college is difficult--even Nneka was significantly more limited her frosh year.Â That makes me think that there might be a big role for Mikaela Ruef, who is coming back from injury.Â Mikaela was playing wing last I remember--but that was because we had more posts than we needed, and she always seemed a little out of place on the wing.Â Maybe this will be a chance for her to spend some time inside.Â Will this be Mikaela's break-out year?

Wing.Â This is the one area that I think we never really got figured out last year.Â Tara went back and forth between Taylor Greenfield, who seemed like a more rounded player who was able to play decent defense from the start, and Bonnie Samuelson, who often was our best three point shooter.Â But Bonnie was not always consistent, and Taylor had limited offensive output, so midway through the year Tara began to let Joslyn play out there instead, much like she had with Mikaela the year before.Â And so, as sometimes happened in previous years,Â we seemed to play a lot with three natural posts--Nneka and Chiney and Joslyn.Â Several of us like Erica Payne's moves to the basket and hope that she would develop.Â Tara answered a question last year about her to the effect that she would get more minutes if she started scoring more--meaning that she needed to finish more of those moves.Â Remembering Tara'a addage that the greatest improvement usually comes between the freshman and sophomore years makes me suspect that Erica, Bonnie, and Taylor should all be expected to improve significantly from last year, and the one of them who improves the most will get the starting job.

Overall.Â Given Tara's track record of adjusting her schemes to her personnel, my guess is that she will find a way to play the best five players she has, and even she does not know right now who those five will be.Â Just like last year, the starting lineup could well evolve and change over the first eight weeks of the season or so.Â The alternate schemes could put pressure on our wing spot, with either a 3rd natural guard or a 3rd natural post taking that slot.Â Given the injury to Aly, I would guess that it is less likely that we do the three post rotation very much this year.Â

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - BobK - 09-25-2012

Fantastic 81.Â I doubt we see a 3 guard line up.Â Remember Bonnie and Taylor were just frosh last year.Â Taylor could be very good on D and no one has a higher D IQ than Bonnie so I can't see benching them both for a Guard.Â

Jos was one of the best offensive HS Centers I have ever seen and finally she may get to play a lot there.Â If you saw her at Kezar a year ago you would rave about her as I am.Â

The open practice will be announced soon see you there

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - SControl - 09-26-2012

Great analysis 81alum.

I have never seen Green play, but she is the tallest of the three 2011 guards. I like Orrange's game. She is smart, efficient, and did I mention smart (great assist:turnover #). Camp is savy and fearless from what I saw in the UCONN game. I hope she's not rusty from injury and that we see her tenacity early in the season. Going back to Orrange- in the semifinal game against Baylor, I could see that she was holding back. I know going against a ruthless defender like Sims isn't an easy task but lets hope we see an improvement to show up against that kind of guard competition this season.

Stanford has always been known for being a BIG team. But you are right, we definitely have more of a guard "surplus" this season. Bebee's second ACL tear is a bit of a bummer but i am very excited to see how Picknell develops. I am definitely getting an Appel/Dolson vibe from her.

Also, I'm looking forward to Greenfield and Samuelson this season. Their abilities to play outside and inside is always an asset. With their heights, 6'3/6'2 ish, I would like to be able to see their physical strength improve and help defend bigger bodied center and power forwards with their length. If newly committed Kailee Johnson can develop a midrange shot (I believe she played post most of her hs career) she would be a force the next four years after this season.

Sara James' limited minutes these past two years have surprised me. Following her at Oak Ridge, her rank jump going into her senior year had me really excited to see her make an impact once she got to Stanford. Anyone have any insight on her? Still love her game though.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 09-26-2012

(09-26-2012, 05:06 PM)SControl link Wrote:Sara James' limited minutes these past two years have surprised me. Following her at Oak Ridge, her rank jump going into her senior year had me really excited to see her make an impact once she got to Stanford. Anyone have any insight on her? Still love her game though.

That is a good question.Â I've also been waiting for a breakout.Â Usually, though, the players who are going to start at some point will have shown something special by the second half of their sophomore year.Â I watched Sara pretty carefully last year thinking it would be her turn to do really well and earn more minutes.Â My impressions were that she did everything well except shoot accurately.Â She had .256 three point shooting and .305 overall.

You know, I really wonder about three point shooting.Â When I was looking through the archival records I would often come across famous Stanford players who would shoot 42% one year and 28% the next.Â Their mechanics or skill didn't just vanish.Â Take Lindy, who shot .273 last year, .386 the previous year.Â Or Toni, who shot .282 last year but .415 her frosh year.Â Why does that happen?Â It can't just be random and the coaches must do everything in their power to get them back on track.

Maybe this is the year that Sara will "go off" on a hot shooting streak and earn more time.Â

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - SControl - 10-02-2012

I am new on here so I am unfamiliar with who exactly "Lindy" is (I am familiar with the website) but a Top 25 list was posted on the ESPN forum.

Quote:Lindy's full top 25
1. Baylor
2. Connecticut
3. Duke
4. Maryland
5. Stanford
6. Louisville
7. Kentucky
8. Penn State
9. Notre Dame
10. Delaware
11. Georgia
12. St. Johns
13. Oklahoma
14. California
15. Oklahoma State
16. West Virginia
17. Purdue
18. Texas A&M
19. Nebraska
20. Vanderbilt
21. Texas
22. Iowa State
23. Tennessee
24. Middle Tennessee
25. San Diego State

Not that I believe this list has any merit but can someone explain why Duke and Maryland would be ranked higher than Stanford? I know losing the #1 WNBA draft pick to graduation can be seen as a "big loss" to some, but we also gain new talent (albeit one is injured) return a good bench, players to injury, and promising players that did very well last season.

*We were also ranked 5th in the ESPN preseason list last season behind Baylor, ND, Tenn, and Conn but I am having a little trouble seeing Duke and Maryland's jump.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - fullmetal - 10-03-2012

(10-02-2012, 10:46 PM)SControl link Wrote:I am new on here so I am unfamiliar with who exactly "Lindy" is (I am familiar with the website)

Lindy Larocque, who graduated last season: http://www.gostanford.com/sports/w-baskbl/mtt/larocque_lindy00.html

Either Duke or Maryland just had a crop of recruits burst into bloom or the pollsters think Stanford is too young or doesn't have enough proven talent.Â And that's why they play the game.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 10-03-2012

(10-03-2012, 06:18 AM)garvin link Wrote:Count me among the doubters who think this season's team will break our string of Final Fours. I don't see anybody who will remotely replace Nneka's contributions. However, in full disclosure mode, I'll admit I said the same thing about last year's team re Jeanette Pohlen and Kayla Pedersen, and was gloriously wrong.

Sadly, I think your doubts are justified.Â One can never expect too much from frosh and even there Beebe is out for the year.Â

As Tara has pointed out, most of the improvement comes between the 1st and 2nd years.Â The scenario to go back to the final four will therefore be that Amber, Jasmine, Taylor, and Bonnie all show astounding improvement.Â I do think it likely that our guard play will improve this year over last.Â

Half the fun is watching players develop.
1. Will Chiney develop a better jump shot?
2. Will Joslyn be more consistent on offense, and have her best year ever?
3. Will Toni cure her 3 pt. shooting slump?
4. Will Amber develop any regular 3 pt. shot?
5. Will Taylor learn how to score more and not just defend?
6. Will Mikaela blossom now that she is healthy and likely to play in her natural position?
7. Will Jasmine get back to form after injury?
8. Will Tess be more than a limited-time defensive player during her first year?Â Will she show signs of becoming the next Jayne?
9. Will Bonnie diversify her game?

If most of these 9 things do happen, then we will go back to the final four.Â But if most of them don't happen then we won't.Â What is more likely is that some will happen and some won't, and getting back will depend on the luck of the draw and how gritty and determined our players will be.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - BobK - 10-04-2012

Well you lost one Picknell is not the next Jayne.Â Nor should anyone expect her to be an all American or score 46 in a game.Â

Good lust otherwise.Â :)

Who is going to the open practice?

Bob

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 10-04-2012

Denia Ebersoll just showed up over at the Fast Break Club on the "Ask the Freshmen" video and her name just showed up on the official roster for the first time.Â A 5'6" point guard.Â I presume she is a last-minute walk-on.Â She was not mentioned on September 24 on the "Here are the Freshmen" story, so she seems to have been added during the last week.Â

Her biography says she played for International High School in San Francisco, was team captain.Â Her brother Chris played basketball for the Stanford men in 2009-10.Â Played for the Olympic Club Elite.

You mean the red/white scrimmage, Bob on October 19?

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - BobK - 10-05-2012

Yes on Oct 19.Â See you there?Â

I didn't realize she was Chris' brother.Â So several years ago I saw her play and I know only because I sat next to Chris.Â small world.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 03-31-2013

I thought I would bring this old topic back so we could review our predictions and analysis in light of the season.
To answer my list of nine questions:

1. Will Chiney develop a better jump shot?
Partial success--she did from in close make highly effective use of floaters and short jumpers, but she did not make much use of a mid range jump shot, as Nneka did her senior year, and this may have made it easier to double her.

2. Will Joslyn be more consistent on offense, and have her best year ever?
She went from 47% shooting her junior year to 46%, from 38% from 3 to 32% from three.Â Often she did not score in first halves.Â She remained outstanding in some games and quiet in others.

3. Will Toni cure her 3 pt. shooting slump?
No, she was at 29% this season before having to leave with her illness.

4. Will Amber develop any regular 3 pt. shot?
Yes, to a degree.Â This was evident the last few games.Â She finished the season at an even 40% from three, the highest percentage on the team.

5. Will Taylor learn how to score more and not just defend?
She had a great game against Baylor, but otherwise seems not to have progressed much on offense.Â She went from 3.6 to 3.9 ppg.

6. Will Mikaela blossom now that she is healthy and likely to play in her natural position?
Yes, to a degree.Â She helped in several critical situations, but did not become much of a consistent offensive or free-throw shooting threat.

7. Will Jasmine get back to form after injury?
This was a puzzle to me.Â She certainly looked like she was back to her old self, but was seldom played--even after Toni went out.Â For a guard who started and was successful against UConn last year, I'm not sure why she did not get more experience.

8. Will Tess be more than a limited-time defensive player during her first year?Â Will she show signs of becoming the next Jayne?
No and no.Â But she did improve and will likely play more of a role next year.

9. Will Bonnie diversify her game?
Yes, to a degree, but if she is going to be able to drive to the basket from the wing she needs to get in the weight room some more.Â But I loved to see her drive last night.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 03-31-2013

(03-31-2013, 09:12 AM)garvin link Wrote:I'm really pleased to have been wrong about Sara James. Her improvement over her first two seasons was remarkable. I look forward to watching her next year.

Absolutely.Â She was not even on my list of questions, she was completely off the rador.Â And to wind up starting.Â She basically took over the Lindy LaRoque role.Â Her future may depend upon whether Toni's health improves, how Jasmine develops, and whether Karlie Samuelson, Briana Roberson, and Khaliya Thompson show any signs of being able to play their first year.Â In particular, how good a defender at the college level with Karlie turn out to be?Â She reputedly is a better three point shooter than her sister, so I'm sure Tara will use her if she is not a defensive liability.Â Add in Alex Greene and we are going to have a whole bunch of unproven guards competing with Sara for playing time next year.

With Joslyn graduating and Ruef just constantly being bothered with foot problems, I expect that incoming frosh McCall and Johnson are going to get major opportunities their freshman year.Â McCall in particular, given her extensive international experience.Â McCall really could be as good as a freshman Chiney, and I think we are all hoping that she may become the next post super-star at Stanford, given that we have Chiney only for one more year.Â Johnson I know less about, but I've her her described as a little more wing-like, maybe a versatile post like Kayla.Â Just how much time these players get may depend on how Aly Beebe does after being injured for more than two years.Â That is a long time to make up.Â But she has enormous potential, too, but no one has seen her play since her junior year in high school.

In short, next year's team is going to have a lot of talent at forward and at guard that we have not seen play before.Â Even our "sixpack" year doesn't rival this, given the injured players coming back.Â Rotation choices look to me like this:

Chiney
Ruef/Erica McCall/Beebe/Picknell
Greenfield/Bonnie/Kailee Johnson
Kokenis/James/Karlie Samuelson/Jasmine/
Amber/Khaliya Thompson

At the beginning of the year I would expect that Taylor and Bonnie and Ruef will be Chiney's supporing cast of forwards in the out-of-conference season as we discover what Beebe and McCall and Johnson are capable of.Â At the end of the season, if the frosh develop well, I think one or two of them could work their way into the starting lineup.Â A lineup with Chiney/McCall/Beebe/Kokenis/Orrange with a very deep bench seems like a plausible guess, by year's end.Â I guess that reflects my hunch that--as much as I like them--Ruef and Bonnie and Taylor have probably given us all they have to give, but that Beebe and McCall and Johnson have a very high upside potential that will become apparent as they start to play.

If Toni does not come back then Sara, Jasmine, Alex, and Karlie will compete to start there.Â It will be especially interesting to see how Alex develops after hardly seeing her for two years.Â Khaliya I imagine will become an Amber understudy and prepare to be point guard and relieve her in limited minutes.Â But it is very hard to be a freshman point guard in this complex system.

Keep in mind Tara's general rule of player development--most improvement comes after the frosh year and before the sophomore year.Â (Sara James, however, shows that it is possible to show that degree of improvment later in your career.)Â That would mean Tess and Beebe.Â Beebe may not have played this year but she has been with the team and has been learning systems, hearing scouting reports, and will be working out and getting her body into college level shape.Â Tess's agility has already shown marked improvement.Â How much more improvement is she capable of?

Watching the team develop is going to be fascinating--there is so much potential and so much that will be unsettled deep into the Fall.

Re: WBB: How will this year's team develop? - 81alum - 03-31-2013

(03-31-2013, 09:12 AM)garvin link Wrote:I'm really pleased to have been wrong about Sara James. Her improvement over her first two seasons was remarkable. I look forward to watching her next year.