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Bowl predictions by the numbers - fullmetal - 11-13-2012

http://www.bowlpredictor.com/ has predicted landing spots for every possibly bowl-eligible team using the pure points Sagarin predictor.  Stanford's biggest likely destination is the Alamo Bowl.  The other team with the biggest likelihood of ending up in the Alamo Bowl is...Texas.  That could be very, very interesting.

But I'm still gunning for the Rose Bowl.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - Robbie - 11-13-2012

Northern Illinois has a 39% chance of going to the national championship? I call foul.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - fullmetal - 11-13-2012

That's weird.  I pinged the site creator (c/o '09) about it...

edit:
The site mentions that these only generate predictions for computer component of the BCS rankings , and not for AP or Harris polls. By the computer rankings used right now, there's a 39% chance that NIU, having lost only their first game, ends up in the top two. With Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State all having tough games ahead, this is apparently 39% likely. Even if they are top two, I doubt the polls will put them that high, but they will probably end up in the top 16 and therefore qualify for a BCS bowl. (My paraphrasing of his reply, sent by text.)

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - SamAtoms1980 - 11-13-2012

(11-13-2012, 03:01 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:Stanford's biggest likely destination is the Alamo Bowl.  The other team with the biggest likelihood of ending up in the Alamo Bowl is...Texas.  That could be very, very interesting.

This came up on my radar a couple of weeks ago.  Among others, one big storyline would be our newly found offense versus Texas's newly found defense.  Both teams would provide stern tests for each other, no doubt about it.

Who has Northern Illinois beaten this year?  Louisiana Tech is likelier to get any mid-major BCS selections.  A 59-57 quality loss to Texas A&M has to count for something, too.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - fullmetal - 11-13-2012

There is no doubt that the LA Tech head coach is fielding phone calls from the likes of Kentucky or any other school interested in replacing their head coach.  I wonder if Mike Leach's contract has a morals clause :p

But it makes sense that the pure computer polls like N. ILL's chances of a one-loss season.  It's just an artifact of the pure computer basis.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - Griffins78 - 11-13-2012

(11-13-2012, 06:38 PM)SamAtoms1980 link Wrote:Louisiana Tech is likelier to get any mid-major BCS selections.  A 59-57 quality loss to Texas A&M has to count for something, too.
They play SJSU coming up. Go Sparty!

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - Roberton3 - 11-14-2012

(11-13-2012, 04:39 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:That's weird.  I pinged the site creator (c/o '09) about it...

edit:
The site mentions that these only generate predictions for computer component of the BCS rankings , and not for AP or Harris polls. By the computer rankings used right now, there's a 39% chance that NIU, having lost only their first game, ends up in the top two. With Oregon, Northern Indiana Parochial College, and Kansas State all having tough games ahead, this is apparently 39% likely. Even if they are top two, I doubt the polls will put them that high, but they will probably end up in the top 16 and therefore qualify for a BCS bowl. (My paraphrasing of his reply, sent by text.)

That makes no sense at all, and suggests that the site creator doesn't understand the computer rankings.  NIU isn't currently in the top 25 in any of the computer rankings used by the BCS.  Even if they win their remaining games, there's absolutely no way they'll be in the top two of the computer rankings.  I'd be very surprised if they'd even crack the top 16 of the computer rankings.  The computer rankings don't just look at wins and losses, they also look at schedule strength.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - Robbie - 11-19-2012

update on these predictions:

http://www.bowlpredictor.com/

Stanford with a 46% chance of going to the Rose. Sounds like a reasonable guess to me.

And I know that given current euphoria the Alamo Bowl would be a let down. But it still would mark the culmination a very successful season.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - FarmBoy - 11-19-2012

40% sounds about right to me.

Getting to the CCG: ~65% (assume 50% probability we beat UCLA + 15% probability Oregon loses to Oregon St., there's probably overlap in those outcomes, but I'm not dusting off my probability text books to calculate it)

Winning the CCG: 70% chance if we're in Palo Alto, 40% chance if we're at UCLA (meaning we lost the week before. Assume in 80% of Stanford in the CCG scenarios that we're the home team)

0.65 * ( 0.80 * 0.7+ 0.20 * 0.4) = 41.6%

I still wonder if we would have had a better chance of going to the Rose Bowl by losing to Oregon. With KSU losing, an undefeated ND goes to the NCG, removing that temptation from the RB committee. Then we'd only  have to beat a UCLA team that may be resting ahead of the Friday CCG against the Ducks to shore up a 9-3 record and likely spot in the BCS top 14.

Oh well, I guess the boys will just have to do it the (new) old fashioned way and beat UCLA twice.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - CowboyIndian - 11-19-2012

It's fun but there are too many variables to make any accurate predictions on bowl placement at the moment. That in itself is pretty cool in Thanksgiving week. I love college football!

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - pcgoode - 11-21-2012

Not a numbers prediction, but Stewart Mandel has us beating UCLA this weekend, but then going on to the Fiesta Bowl as an at-large pick, and Oregon going to the Rose Bowl as PAC 12 Champ.  I don't see how that works given that he thinks we beat UCLA this Saturday - Oregon would not be in the PAC 12 Championship Game.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/stewart_mandel/11/20/week-13-pickoff/index.html?sct=cf_t11_a1

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/stewart_mandel/11/19/bowl-projections/index.html?sct=cf_t11_a5

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - FarmDad.01 - 11-21-2012

Perhaps Mr. Mandel is relying on unskewedpolls.com?

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - fullmetal - 11-21-2012

IIRC, the polls don't even matter--if we win against UCLA, both our division and conference record would be tied with Oregon's (one loss each).  The next tiebreaker is the head-to-head matchup, and we win that (!!!), so we would go to the conference championship.

Re: Bowl predictions by the numbers - cardcoug - 11-21-2012

two things. first, the Northern Illinois business is just absolute nonsense, as Roberton pointed out. N.I. currently has an average computer ranking of 27.25. second, regarding Mandel: he said in the mailbag today that he has no idea who will win the Stanford/UCLA game, and just picked UCLA on a whim for his bowl predictions earlier in the week and then switched to pick stanford for his game predictions. This really does look like a tough game to pick. should be fun!