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WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - 81alum - 12-19-2012

I'm only listening, hoping that those of you who are watching will chime in.

One piece of important news is that Taylor Greenfield just checked into the game, meaning her injury must not have been that serious.  Good news!

*** TEN MINUTES

The first 10 minutes of the game sounds like it was a defensive slugfest, and Joslyn had 4 blocks already!  Finally we have bludgeoned our way up 14-7 with about 10 minutes in the half.

*** HALF

Stanford got stuck on 14 points  for 5 minutes while South Carolina caught up and took the lead.  Things broke open slightly at the end of the half.  Amber lays in a buzzer beater at the end of the half for a 24-19 lead.

Stanford has been turning the ball over an uncharacteristic amount--as might have been expected with South Carolina, which is famous for steals.  Amber has 4 turnovers and Toni 3 at the half.  Keeping Stanford in this game is Joslyn Tinkle, who has 6 blocks in the first half!  We are 0-3 for 3 point shooting.  Chiney is 4/7 and Amber 3/6.  We are outrebounding 22/13.  South Carolina has taken 33 shots to our 23 shots, and has stolen the ball 6 times.  We are shooting 39% and they are shooting 24%.  Toni's shooting is off so far--she is 1 for 6.  Joslyn has only taken one shot.  In fact, Chiney, Amber, and Toni are the only players to take more than one shot! 

I'd say that turnovers are keeping Stanford's offense down, and blocks and poor shooting is keeping South Carolina's offense down, resulting in this defensive near-stalemate. 

Now, if some of you who are watching will chime it, it would be good to know how this is happening.  What defenses are being played?

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. South Carolina - sheriand - 12-19-2012

I'm watching the game with WBBFAN2.    We notice that the Stanford offense has no movement and poor spacing.  Chiney has forced up some low percentage shots, and is making a reasonable number.  She has no alternative to the shots, due to no movement by the rest of the offense.  She has gone one on three multiple times and scored. Toni is having a uncharacteristically poor game, missing chippies.    Jos has been great on defense, blocking shots and rebounding, but she should dominate down low and is not.  Mikaela was tough while she was in, matching the Gamecock's physicality.  Hope to see her more in the second half.    Really surprised to see Erica in so early, maybe just looking for movement and energy.    I expected this game to be close, I remember last year in Fresno.    Hoping the coaches are doing their magic at halftime.

Re: WBB: Stanford vs. South Carolina - 81alum - 12-19-2012

10 MINUTES LEFT IN SECOND HALF 36-31

The KZSU coverage has been awful--several minutes of technical difficulties at a time.  The second half has been a continuation of the first, with simply atrocious shooting. Stanford is now 0/5 from three.  South Carolina has made a couple of 3s and Toni hit a dribble drive and-one.  Then another last second shot.  Toni is keeping us in it during this stretch.  Joslyn still has not scored in the game.    The longer South Carolina stays close the more their crowd gets in it and the more worried I become.

***
With 4:39 we are up only by 1 point and our offense seems to be stagnant.  16 turnovers and shooting only 37% with 0 three pointers.  Now we are down by 2 after South Carolina hit a three.  Amber makes a 2 and it is tied at 42 with 3:30 left.
***
KZSU goes off the air with the score tied with a minute left.  Sheesh.  Following the boxscore on ESPN it looks exciting, a series of fouls with Toni making two free throws with 26 seconds left to put us up 3.  Now 7 seconds left. 
***
KZSU keeps trying to come back and we hear half a sentence before they are lost again.  Amazing.  They don't even get a score out of their mouths before they get cut off again.
***
Boxscore has South Carolina hitting a 3 and then Toni making final freethrows with one second left for us to win 53-49.

That has to be the most frustrating listening experience in all my years of following sports.  Wow.  Glad we won.  I'll wait for the viewers to offer some analysis.


Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Yellowlab - 12-19-2012

First takeaway, they (SC) played great defense.  Second takeaway, what do you do if they take Chiney away?  Chiney still beat them, but it was obvious that she was the focus. What is plan B?  They tried to stop her, but they could not.  What if a team is bigger and stronger and tried to stop her?  What would Stanford do?

Unless someone who has not yet stepped up, steps up, I think this team goes as far as Chiney can take it, and no farther.

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Viking_Guy - 12-19-2012

Jos may have been solid in the first half, but in the last ten minutes she really didn't play well, and finished the game with NO points while generally being defended by players 3 or 4 inches shorter than she was.  Mostly, she has no business putting the ball on the floor - she kept bringing it down and letting the smaller Gamecocks get a hand on it.  18 turnovers at the end are what kept South Carolina in the game - they shot horribly, but had SIXTEEN more shots than Stanford did, in spite of I guess aided by the Cardinal's 11 blocks.  As a team, take away their leading scorer Welch, and the Gamecocks shot 11-53.

Chiney was playing tough, but people are right - there was little to no movement by the rest of the team.  We often started in a 1-4 low set (1 player at the top with the ball and 4 on the baseline), then brought up one or two players to the wing to screen.  But most of the offense seemed to only involve 3 players - the one with the ball, one screener and Chiney.  The other two players on the floor didn't enter into the flow at all.  Stanford also got all of 2 points from the bench, and no made field goals - Bonnie was 2-2 from the FT line.  They got two made shots from the entirety of the team other than Chiney, Amber and Toni - by Mikaela Ruef.

Key stat - Stanford assists?  FOUR.  For the entire game.  While South Carolina plays good defense, that's an offense that's just anemic.  One other - 5 offensive rebounds the entire game.
 
Amber hit a key pull-up jumper to tie the game at 42, but also turned it over 7 times. 

Actually, I might give the gameball to Ruef (and might consider giving a designated one to Chiney - she's been so consistently good and critical to Stanford's success that I look for other contributors).  After Chiney converted a really tough and-1 opportunity to put Stanford back up 45-44, the Gamecocks, who are among the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, hit 1 of 2 to tie it up.  Ruef got the ball on the left of the lane, with Chiney in the right post and three players sagging in on her.  Ruef took her player and drove her under the hoop to hit a driving layup and give Stanford a 47-45 lead.  After a good defensive stand, Toni was called for a very touchy foul with almost no time on the shot clock, but South Carolina could again only hit 1-2, and with under 25 seconds, had to foul.  Kokenis was lucky she wasn't called for traveling - she ran back toward an inbounds pass which came in high, caught it and looked like she took two steps before she could get it to the floor.  But it wasn't called, and she got the foul, calmly hitting both shots and giving Stanford a 3 point lead.  The Cardinal, switching everything to guard at the three-point line, gave up a drive down the left, but Ruef stepped out and took the charge with 10 seconds left.  Kokenis again sank her FTs, but South Carolina hit a pull-up 3 with under 2 seconds left.  Toni again hit her FTs, and Stanford escaped.

Yuck.

Hope they can step it up on Saturday against a pumped-up Tennessee team, smarting after getting shellacked by Baylor in Waco earlier this week.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - FarmDad.01 - 12-19-2012

I caught the game at a sports bar. It was ugly. Stanford missed so many bunnies (only a few of which were contested) that I had a flashback to Carolyn Moos. There were very few replays, thus I couldn't confirm my impression that the refereeing was like a Missy Barlow lowlight reel. Having tuned in to part of the TN-Baylor game, I'm not that worried about the Lady Vols; the Cardinal cannot shoot worse. UConn will be the real test.

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Nan3cy - 12-19-2012

VG already pointed out the statistic that has me shaking my head: 18 turnovers to 4 rebounds. Crikey.  ???

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Yellowlab - 12-19-2012

OK.  That was a road win versus a ranked team.  And, I have a feeling that SC is going to make a few more teams look bad, before they are through.

Agreed, however, they have to play better.

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - 81alum - 12-19-2012

All season I have been worried about what will happen when a team takes Chiney away, as probably Connecticut will.  What happens when someone does to Chiney what we did to Griner?  Now we know--sort of.  And so does everyone else.  The Connecticut boards have had a lot of discussion about Stanford being a one woman team this year--their fans are thinking what we are also thinking.  In fairness, we are certainly not a one woman team.  But when it comes to offense, we are getting pretty lopsided.

In her early career, Jos's offense was erratic.  She would have high scoring games against inferior teams and then struggle against good defensive teams.  I had hoped that she had matured out of that.  She had 11 points against Baylor, for example.  But tonight is cause for alarm as far as her offense is concerned.  On the other hand, you could say she won the game for us with a remarkable defensive performance.  Seven blocks in one game!  Is that some kind of record?  Amazing.

What is it with our three point shooting?  Two games in a row it has been horrible, simply horrible.  But we only took 4 shots, and only one in the second half.  This has to be a coaching decision not to feature the three.  Was this decision a cause or a symptom of poor long range shooting?  What happened to that 8/14 three point shooting we had against Gonzaga?

I noticed that we outrebounded South Carolina 36-27, but they had many more offensive rebounds than we had--11 to 5.  How did that happen?  How is it that they had no one over 6 feet and we had three who were 6-3 and they got so many more chances than we did?  Their steals and offensive rebounds resulted in their taking 63 shots to our 47.  When one team gets 16 more chances to score than the other, you have to think that they will usually win.  Fortunately, they made only 29% of their shots, which I would guess is due in part to our height advantage.  Or were we just playing absolutely spectacular defense?  Hard for me to know without having seen the game.  How will this same defense of ours hold up against UConn?

How about some praise for shooting free throws?  After Chiney missed her first two free throws, we went 100% from the charity stripe.  They shot 64%  That could be the game.  Something positive we did, anyway.  Special kudoes to Toni who was 7-7, including critical free throws down the stretch.

What is it that cuts assists down so sharply?  Was that South Carolina's style of defense, or our own lack of imaginative offense?  This is the second game in a row with sub par assists.  Amber had 3 assists and 7 turnovers, Toni was 0/3.  Mikaela got a lot of assists last game but 0 this game, suggesting that she was not able to get the high-low passing going at all. 

While we cringe at 18 turnovers, keep in mind that 10 of those 18 were steals by South Carolina, which is almost exactly their average.  That is just what they do.  And at least a couple of the other 8 were travels or errant throws caused by aggressive defense.  What I don't know is whether Tennessee or UConn have the personnel to duplicate the South Carolina steals.

Right now the Tennessee coaches are studying this game and dissecting it, trying to see if there is anything they can learn or use from it.  I think they will learn a lot more to help them get ready for us than we will learn by watching the Tennessee-Baylor game.  We have another dangerous game around the corner.



Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - M T - 12-19-2012

I usually like to watch a game twice before commenting much, but this time I don't have that luxury.

My game ball goes to Toni.  While she did have 3 turnovers (Chiney had 4), she handled the ball during much of the critical part of the game, and of course went 7 for 7 from the FT line with 6 of those coming in the last 22 seconds.  (Garvin says she missed two 3ptrs in the first half, but the stats only lists one.)

Chiney did have the scoring load on her shoulders for the first 39:38 of the game.  What I saw was that generally we pulled 4 players out to the 3pt line and isolated Chiney to go one-on-one (hopefully). (The idea seems to be that fewer defensive hands reaching in might mean fewer turnovers and more goals.) Hence there was little movement since anyone cutting into the lane without the ball would crowd Chiney.  Hence Jos was in position to take only one shot and get only one OR.  Unfortunately, Chiney wasn't as successful at this offense as Nneka, perhaps because they were better prepared for it.  They kept enough pressure on Chiney so that the passes into her weren't easy and were the source of a number of turnovers.  When she did get the ball, she was usually far from the basket and had to make moves to get closer, or throw up prayers.  Hence few assists.  Fortunately, Chiney sank a lot of prayers.  This style of play also impacted our offensive rebounds.  You can't crash the boards from the 3pt line without giving up fast breaks.

It was a physical game.  Players were just run over and knocked flat on their backs with no apology.  Hands swatting at everything and sometimes hitting the ball.  The officials blew a number of calls.  I have to say I was worried that it would devolve into the basketball equivalent of penalty kicks (which I believe So. Carolina would be happy to see).

Our biggest lead was 14-7.  Even though we were ahead most of the second half, it was by less than 2 possessions, making the outcome a roll of the dice or the bounce of the hoop or the tweet of a whistle.  So. Carolina got a couple of those bounces with 3 pointers, the last with 3 seconds to go, leaving us only 2 pts ahead.  (Btw, their 3pt percentage was very close to their season average.)

I think tie balls where the team retains possession don't count as turnovers, but if you're on the wrong parity, you get charged with a turnover.  My recollection is that except for that, we'd have had even more turnovers.

No 3ptrs.  A few years back, I remember the KZSU announcer talking about our streak of games with a 3ptr.  I also remember some games with but one 3ptr, including our previous game against So. Carolina.  But since I haven't heard such a streak mentioned recently, I guess it got broken but I can't remember when.  We only tried 4 three pointers, only one in the second half (by Bonnie, (apparently) with the shot clock running down).  I think most of those were contested.

As frustrated as we were at shooting, imagine how the Gamecocks (or is it Gamehens?) felt.  63 shots, 11 blocks, 18 baskets. 28.6%.  They were outmatched in height and yet tended to try most of their shots within 10 feet of the basket.  It appeared that we dropped off any player but one at the three point line.  They weren't even taking shots at the foul line, but we were covering them there.

We actually did better in rebounding than I expected.  So. Car. got 28.2% of the offensive rebound chances (they averaged 50%).  Stanford got 33.3% of their offensive rebound chances. (VG says only 5 OR, but there were also 4 team ORs)

VG wrote "she [Jos] kept bringing it down and letting the smaller Gamecocks get a hand on it".  Wasn't that at most twice, since she only had 2 turnovers?  Yes, it was frustrating to see that turnover with 6:18 in the game, but she was too far out for a good shot and had 3 opponents on her so getting a pass off wasn't going to be easy.  I think it is obvious that her role today was to be there for defense (7 blocks, 6 DR) and not for offense (only tried 1 shot; only got 1 OR).  If you're told to be out at the 3 point line, it doesn't matter much if you're taller than your opponent.

Yes, Amber did sink that shot at the end of the first half and wound up with 11 points.  But in my book she played like she wasn't playing against good players.  Her errors were generally unforced, and she'd throw the ball where it would be stolen.  In my book, she shouldn't be our quarterback.

An interesting question is why didn't Mikaela play more?  She was 2 of 3 FG with 6 rebounds, 1 TO.  She did get to 3 fouls in her 22 minutes.  But her numbers seem better than Taylor + Bonnie combined (0 of 3 FG with 3 rebounds, 0 TO, 1 foul in 24 minutes).

A question I'd have is whether we'd ever use this offense again this season.  Probably not.  Not against Tennessee; not against UConn;  not against the #8 team.  We'll run plays like this, but not so exclusively.  This seems suited only for a shorter team that is very strong defensively.  Frankly, I hope we don't.  We have offensive weapons that weren't properly utilized in this game.

A silver lining:  For the second time this year, our team was challenged, this time by a lower ranked team.  We stuck with it and won.  That's a good character-building experience and may help us later.

Fortunately (I hope!), we have the Tennessee game before the next polls are decided.  If we beat Tennessee reasonably well, I hope the voters will keep the same order of voting for the top few spots.  It doesn't really matter if the polls come back with Stanford second behind UConn, because that will be settled shortly.  But the worry would be if some voters use this game (plus beating Tennessee by less than 23) as an excuse to put Baylor ahead of Stanford, despite our victory on a neutral court.  Voters that do that might vote Baylor ahead of Stanford even if Stanford beats UConn by a slim margin.

Finally, kudos to Dawn Staley for the players she put together on this team and their style of play.  Imagine if one of them were 6'4" or one of them was a 50% 3pt shooter.  If I were coach of one of the D-II schools, I'd be trying to emulate this.  While they haven't yet beat a ranked team, I'm sure they will.

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - 81alum - 12-20-2012

Terrific analysis, MT.  That helps so much to understand and make sense of the stats.

So, what would have been a more effective offense?  If we had four players staying out at the 3 point line to draw defenders away from Chiney, wouldn't that demand that we take and make more three point shots to make it a credible threat?  Otherwise, why shouldn't they ignore our perimeter players and just keep mobbing Chiney?

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Viking_Guy - 12-20-2012

MT--

To be fair, the reason Jos' bringing the ball down is stuck in my head is because she put the ball in a contested space at least a couple of times in the final minutes of a close game - one trying to dribble the ball in traffic, the other bringing down a potential offensive rebound to waist height instead of holding it over her head and tossing it out to the perimeter - not sure if they counted it as a turnover or not, as she may never have officially had the rebound.  But the one where she was standing 6 feet from the hoop, with Chiney on the far side of the lane, and three smaller defenders around her, really stuck out when she lost the ball trying to dribble in the middle of the crowded lane after her one offensive rebound of the game.  Primarily as a rebounder and defender or not, having a starter attempt 1 shot in 36 minutes, especially one with as dramatic a height advantage as she enjoyed, is tough on offensive balance.

The 1-4 I was describing was the initial set I saw us in most of the time - ball handler up top, almost always Amber on the right side, two wings in the corners, and a double post.  Then the non-Chiney post, either Jos or Mikaela, would come high to set a pick for the ball handler, and try to isolate Chiney inside.  If the defender on the pick hedged well, bring the ball back out and reverse and try to enter again or reset (or, a little too often, try a threaded pass either straight or on the bounce through traffic to Chiney).  The major problem seemed to be that South Carolina's on-ball defense denied the easy pass inside to Chiney, so even if she got good position she often didn't receive the ball in a timely fashion, allowing her defender to work around to front or 3/4 her and deny the ball.  But more generally, cutters through the lane setting up cross screens on Chiney's defender, or forcing a switch, would've been nice to see.  And especially late in the game, South Carolina was dropping the two wing defenders in to crowd the lane quickly once the ball went in.  Given how the team was shooting, don't know if kick-outs once those defenders dropped in would be advisable, but it seemed to me like a lot of Chiney on 3 offense late. Of course, sometimes that worked - the "and 1" she converted split the double team and got up before the third defender could join the fun.

More generally, Stanford won for one important reason - South Carolina can't shoot very well.  The blocks were in part a result of that - undersized forwards and guards trying to drive into the lane and get to the hoop against Jos and Chiney.  I kept hoping for more zone, especially helping out against Welch, who was the Gamecocks' only real consistent offense.  This game strikes me as good preparation for both UCLA and C.al, although they'll have more size - not great shooting teams that rely on quickness, steals and turnovers to generate transition opportunities at the basket.

Glenn, I agree that South Carolina is a good team - although their record is a bit misleading, as they've only played 3 teams with winning records thus far (and 6 that are RPI 140+).  But I also watched the teams that I compare them with, Baylor and UConn, dismantle Tennessee and destroy Penn State respectively; they're both better than South Carolina.  With a similar effort on Saturday, I don't think there's any way Stanford wins in Knoxville.

God, I want to win there.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - Cardinal96 - 12-20-2012

Having seen a few Connecticut games and a few Stanford games this year, it will probably take a great performance by us and a subpar performance by them for us to win that.  But you never know.

Hopefully, we can pick it up against Tennessee.

Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - meos - 12-20-2012

Congrats to the team for finding a way to win a tough defensive battle of a game. Lots of lessons learned there to be sure.

South Carolina's style of defense (which will be repeated by some upcoming top teams) was pressure defense with strong (wo)man-to-man deny on all passes. Defenders stayed glued to their targets; which helped them force turnovers and helped eliminate the 3 pointers. Stanford's style of 3-point shooters need time and space (usually via catch and shot), and neither time nor space was available very often with SC's defense. That defensive style also puts more of a premium on offensive players who can "rise" to a shot (with no dribbles), and those that can dribble confidently in traffic and shoot (Amber and Toni; in one of last plays Mikaela showed she can, but confidence wise, she usually doesn't).

So in essence this became a scrum that Stanford managed to win with the collective effort and skills of every player.

Being smaller and faster, and in deny position on D, South Carolina was able to get many deflections as too often Stanford players tried to dribble in traffic. The shame of it was, that in most cases, playing to their height was an unused option. Meaning , with strength, chinning the ball straight up to their entire height, and putting up a soft shot. That technique alone would reduce turnovers, and unleash the Stanford secret weapon, Chiney's offensive rebounding.

Along those same lines of lessons learned, it seems like they are still figuring out what works best with Chiney in a high pressure game. Nneka for example had much more bulk/strength and could fight for and hold her offensive position when posting up. Chiney is lighter and is more easily pushed out of the post. So Chiney and the team need to be more in sync on when and how to get Chiney the ball. And Chiney needs to be much more aware of the ball coming her direction at any time. On one play, Mikaela passed the ball but not high enough. In another, Jos was afraid to make the pass when Chiney had a solid post. So recognizing Chiney will have to do it slightly differently, on the Mikela play for instance, the a defensive player was fronting Chiney. The play was there to bounce the ball off the backboard to get it to Chiney. But all team members have to read the defense and practice these skills in a way that acknowledge Chiney's style will be a little different at times to get the ball.

Lessons learned comes after the game and when back at practice.

But real-time, at least they managed to solve the problems the D of SC presented enough to get a win.



Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - M T - 12-20-2012

This 3 minutes of video was posted by South Carolina
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oiz5wM1nCoA
The score of what they show is So. Carolina 29, Stanford 18.
Stanford offense:
0:15  Stanford appears to have only one player inside the 3pt arc. When Chiney comes out to set a screen, then other players move in.
0:32  Chiney has the ball in the paint with 4 players on the 3pt arc. (Taylor had just run the baseline from left to right, but seemed to just be transitioning, not getting into position inside the arc.)  When she makes her shot, she is 12' from the basket with 4 opponents between her and the basket.  She is the closest Stanford player to the rim, so we weren't going to get any rebound.
0:47 Jos breaks into an open lane, that is surrounded by 5 opponents.  Amber throws an arcing pass that allows the opponents to collapse and steal the ball, resulting in a fast break. (And, note the foul on the fast break.)
1:05 Chiney works her way to the basket while the rest of Stanford backs away from the 3pt line. (I only see 4 Stanford players.  The fifth must be out near half court!)
1:13 Toni drives & scores.
1:32 Toni drives & scores
1:45 With only Chiney inside the 3pt line, Toni drives from near half court & scores as shot clock runs out.
1:50 Attempted fast break by Toni is blocked out of bounds.
2:06 The OR by Jos that results in a steal. Correcting my earlier post: She has 4 opponents around her. Only 2 other Stanford players are in the frame. Jos could have tried a contested jumper, but I don't see her getting off a pass before being called for 3 seconds or getting tied up.  Results in a fast break with Amber unable to stand up to the one-person break.
2:19 Chiney with the ball, with Jos on the other block.  The other 3 are out at the 3pt line, but one comes in.
2:30 Amber shoots from 14 with Chiney & Mikaela on the blocks
2:35  Chiney in the paint with the other 4 on the arc.  Stanford does go to the paint after Chiney gets in trouble with the ball.


Re: WBB: Stanford 53 South Carolina 49 - 81alum - 12-20-2012

Thank you so much for linking that video--and your timeline comments are very helpful for me to follow along and see illustrations of what you have been saying. 

I'm impressed with South Carolina for posting highlights that show the highlights of both sides.  Stanford highlight videos are usually all Stanford offense, which means we can't watch highights of our defense or appreciate the other team.  In any case, to someone who could not watch, this is mana.