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Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - FarmBoy - 01-02-2013

The NYTimes article yesterday did a lot of comparing Hogan with Luck, but didn't really provide any comparative stats. Here's what I pulled from ESPN on their first years as starters:

Passing: CMP ATT PCT YDS       AVG TD LNG INT RAT
Hogan:  109 152 71.7 1096 7.2 9 43 3 147.9
Luck:      162 288 56.3 2575 8.9 13 63 4 143.5

Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
Hogan:  55 263 4.8 27 2
Luck:      61 354 5.8 31 2

A few points of interest:
- Both players have great TD/INT ratios
- While the pass ratings are similarly high, they achieved them in different ways. Hogan was more "accurate" in completing 72% of passes vs. 56% for Luck, but Luck still achieved a higher overall YPA with 8.9 vs. 7.2. Hogan appears to have a ways to go on his down field throwing relative to Luck
- They were both effective rushers, though clearly Hogan rushes a lot more frequently than Luck did. They rushed almost the same number of times though Hogan probably have ~50% of the snaps as Luck had during his 12 game season. Even though Hogan is more of a stereotypical dual threat QB, Luck averaged more YPA.

Of course, Luck had the benefit of handing off to Toby Gerhart, potentially opening up more of the passing game than the threat of Taylor, so the situations aren't totally analogous, but both teams were built with a run first mentality and defenses were clearly cheating all year in both cases.

I think we're in good hands with Hogan returning at QB, but I think the NYTimes, and anyone else, drawing too many parallels between HOgan and Luck should temper their enthusiasm.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - Farm93 - 01-02-2013

Stanford 2009 - Lost the Sun Bowl 

Stanford 2012-2013 - Won the Rose Bowl  :)

QB Hogan and Coach Shaw have something on Luck and JH that goes beyond the YPA or PCT.  Though Luck and JH can both be certain that their efforts really helped make 2012/2013 possible.

Not too concerned about projecting Hogan out based on 5 games, but will happily support media types blogs and articles since the programs that get to BCS bowls the most seem to benefit from a certain level of pre-preseason hype.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - FarmBoy - 01-02-2013

Farm93 - (1) Luck did not play in the Sun Bowl. Had Luck played, we surely would have won that game as it was closely contested even with Tavita under center. (2) The 2012 Stanford defense was top 5/10 in the nation. The 2009 defense was bottom half/third of the Pac12. One win percentage alone, Hogan has a clear edge, but helps to have that defense on the other side of the ball.

I like Hogan. He is clearly a lead by example type of guy and provides a spark to the offense. He completes a high percentage of his passes and he's athletic enough to pick up a few first downs and keep the opposing defense honest. But comparisons to Luck are premature. He'll be his own player.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - washingtonismoney - 01-02-2013

http://www.ruleoftree.com/2012/12/27/3807362/hold-off-on-the-luck-comparisons-but-hogans-quite-good

Luck, by the way, had one of the best freshman seasons by a QB ever. Didn't get a lot of hype, but true.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - stanforddad - 01-02-2013

Hogan reminded me of Luck at Indy this year, when he stood in the pocket and delivered the ball to Ertz for long gain at the 3. The hit he took after the pass was brobdingnagian. Luck took a beating at Indy this year and keep on getting up. Hogan did the same thing.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - Farm93 - 01-02-2013

(01-02-2013, 12:15 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Farm93 - (1) Luck did not play in the Sun Bowl. Had Luck played, we surely would have won that game as it was closely contested even with Tavita under center. (2) The 2012 Stanford defense was top 5/10 in the nation. The 2009 defense was bottom half/third of the Pac12. One win percentage alone, Hogan has a clear edge, but helps to have that defense on the other side of the ball.

I like Hogan. He is clearly a lead by example type of guy and provides a spark to the offense. He completes a high percentage of his passes and he's athletic enough to pick up a few first downs and keep the opposing defense honest. But comparisons to Luck are premature. He'll be his own player.

Right!  Honestly!  Luck broke a finger in the game vs. Notre Dame.  And some dude named Toby tossed a TD to help secure the win.  Remember that well. Then a lot of people screamed TOBY, TOBY, TOBY with the hopes that a few Voldemort types might actually vote for a player outside of the SEC.

This is why I noted that STANFORD lost the 2009 Sun Bowl.  Even if Luck had played in El Paso that December they still would not have won the 2010 Rose Bowl.

Sun vs Rose.  Individual vs Team.

Luck in 2009 was a great QB.  Hogan in 2012/2013 was on a GREAT team.  Not too concerned if Hogan can match, or exceed, Luck's stats.  He is the only QB in the nation that has a chance to win back-to-back Rose Bowl games in the 2013-2014 season.

By the way, love having to call it the 2012-2013 season, and I hope it becomes the 2013-2014 season.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - terry - 01-03-2013

In 2009, Luck had a relatively low completion percentage (56.3%), but very high yards per completion (15.9). It was a longer, but lower percentage, passing game. In 2010 and 2011, Luck had very high completion percentages (70.7% and 71.3%), with middle-of-the-road yards per completion (12.7 and 12.2). He was a master of the intermediate passing game. In all three seasons, Luck's yards per attempt were in the 8.7 to 9.0 range, which is excellent.

Hogan has a very high completion percentage (71.7%), as Luck did in his last two seasons. But Hogan has sub-par yards per completion (10.1). His completions are almost all short passes. He just doesn't complete many passes downfield. So he gets only 7.2 yards per attempt, which is OK but not at Luck's level.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - washingtonismoney - 01-03-2013

(01-03-2013, 03:16 PM)terry link Wrote:In 2009, Luck had a relatively low completion percentage (56.3%), but very high yards per completion (15.9). It was a longer, but lower percentage, passing game. In 2010 and 2011, Luck had very high completion percentages (70.7% and 71.3%), with middle-of-the-road yards per completion (12.7 and 12.2). He was a master of the intermediate passing game. In all three seasons, Luck's yards per attempt were in the 8.7 to 9.0 range, which is excellent.

Hogan has a very high completion percentage (71.7%), as Luck did in his last two seasons. But Hogan has sub-par yards per completion (10.1). His completions are almost all short passes. He just doesn't complete many passes downfield. So he gets only 7.2 yards per attempt, which is OK but not at Luck's level.

The key thing you leave out here is sacks. It's a point hammered on in the previous link I posted -- with sacks, Hogan's YPA drops to 6.4 (which is actually lower than Nunes' adjusted YPA). Part of that, we hope, is inexperience -- and Hogan took no sacks against Wisconsin, which is quite good. (The other two parts: Nunes was really good at avoiding sacks, and the offensive line performance dipped pretty appreciably. I don't want to be too harsh on the guy, but I think going from Wilkes to Murphy/Garnett/Peat will be a gigantic upgrade. Wilkes deciding to take a fun false start within our five yard line was probably my least favorite moment of the Rose Bowl, performance-wise.)

Anyway, I don't think the problem is Hogan as much as the targets. Here's a revealing link, pre-Rose Bowl: http://es.pn/Vs8GgN

The key comparison here is Luck 2011 w/ 2 TEs vs. Hogan 2012 w/ 2 TEs. Hogan's 9.2 YPA compares very favorably with Luck's 9.7 YPA, especially when you consider Luck had the help of Fleener, DeCastro and Martin. The same issue terry has wisely hit upon -- the overly high pass completion percentage -- is still there, but if you're averaging 9.2 YPA...well, it just doesn't matter.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - terry - 01-03-2013

The point about taking sacks into account in evaluating QBs is valid. Nunes is very good at avoiding sacks. Hogan takes about twice as many sacks as Nunes. The stats:

Nunes -- 8 sacks, 235 pass attempts; 1 sack for every 29 pass attempts
Hogan -- 11 sacks, 152 pass attempts; 1 sack for every 14 pass attempts

I'm going to have to think about whether to take sacks into account in calculating individual yards per pass attempt. Some sacks are not the fault of the QB, so it seems unfair to deduct those sacks from individual passing yardage. The NFL deducts sacks from team passing yardage, but not from individual passing yardage.

Hogan arguably makes up for the sacks to some extent with his ability to run the ball. On non-sack rushing plays, Hogan ran for 318 yards in 6 games, compared to 111 yards in 8 games for Nunes.

Hogan's success with 2 TEs is interesting, and it's a very positive stat. But of course, there's another side of that coin -- what happens when Hogan has to throw to WRs? He hasn't been as successful there. Not a lot of downfield completions. I think he has a lot of upside in that area. Obviously that will be an area of emphasis for next season.

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - washingtonismoney - 01-03-2013

(01-03-2013, 05:17 PM)terry link Wrote:I'm going to have to think about whether to take sacks into account in calculating individual yards per pass attempt. Some sacks are not the fault of the QB, so it seems unfair to deduct those sacks from individual passing yardage. The NFL deducts sacks from team passing yardage, but not from individual passing yardage.

It may not be precisely fair, but it's the best place to do it. I'm sure Nunes -- if you really pressed him, and gave him a truth serum, and promised that you'd keep the answer private -- would point out that the impressive number of drops on deep passes were also not precisely his fault (and would positively affect his YPA).

Re: Hogan 2012 vs. Luck 2009 - DC - 01-03-2013

During a passing play at the game, a Wisconsin fan said to me about Hogan - this guy doesn't like to pass. 

Of course, our WR seldom get open - if they could, that would help.