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Stepfan's prospects - FarmBoy - 01-23-2013

Mel Kiper doesn't include Stepfan Taylor in his top 5 senior RBs (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8826592/2013-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-top-5-senior-nfl-prospects-every-position). For those without ESPN insider, he lists Kenjon Barner, Montee Ball, Ray Graham, Andre Ellington, and Theo Riddick ahead of him. None are 1st round prospects, according to Kiper. Ted Miller is pretty complimentary of Taylor and believes he'll be a good pick up by some team. What do the folks on here think of his prospects? He doesn't seem to have that 2nd gear that you need in the NFL to break off a really big run, nor is he a big  bruiser who will be able to run through NFL linebackers. CBS ranks him 9th (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2013/RB) and projects him as a 4th rounder.

I don't really know the trajectory for the average NFL RB. Is the NFL full of players who are unlikely to make it to the 2nd contract payout but teams need them to get through the grind of a 16 game season with an Adrian Peterson to carry the load? Is Taylor going to be a valuable asset to allow the star to rest and eventually hand over that role to another guy out of college?

Re: Stepfan's prospects - CowboyIndian - 01-23-2013

(01-23-2013, 12:21 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:I don't really know the trajectory for the average NFL RV.

I think most of them show up at the parking lot on Saturday...and leave Sunday night after the game, maybe Monday morning for those without a job.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - slide - 01-23-2013

4th round seems about right to me.  Stepfan does a lot of things well, particularly pass protection.  he has got the body size to put on a few more pounds and not lose effectiveness.  if puts up a good 40 time (or at least one that surprises the scouts), he might move up and pass Reddick and others listed ahead of him.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - fullmetal - 01-23-2013

To be fair, if Toby hasn't made it as a feature back in the NFL, should we have high expectations of Stepfan?  I know that Toby's situation is unique, but still...which teams right now need a solid back?  Maybe the Panthers, Rams (to replace an aging Jackson), Bengals, Packers, Patriots(?), Titans(?)...but no team ever drafted solely on need.

And Doug Martin is tearing it up with the Bucs--I think Taylor is better than Martin.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - Oasis - 01-23-2013

Stepfan is underrated. He must have had the most yards after contact of anyone last year.  It seemed to me that almost every time he got the ball in 2012 he got hit in the backfield and had to get what he could on his own.  When he had the ghost of an opening, he was gone.[size=12pt][size=10pt][size=10pt][size=12pt][/size][/size][/size] [/size]

Re: Stepfan's prospects - pincemob - 01-23-2013

I happened the catch the NFL Network coverage of the Senior Bowl today and they were gushing about Taylor and Thomas.  With Taylor, it was his consistency, lack of fumbling, big game performances (Oregon) plus all of the overlooked qualities (awesome blocker, picks up blitzes, etc).  They made it sound like he could go high.    For Thomas, there were many superlatives, punctuated by Mayock saying something like "in all the film I watched, I never saw him in the wrong position".    Sounds like he could go pretty high also.

One question I had (not to throw this off topic):  how do they determine who plays for the "North" vs. the "South"?  Our guys and the Cal guys are on the "South" whereas the UCLA, SC, Oregon State, Washington, San Jose State, etc guys are in the "North".  Does not seem to make much sense.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - dabigv13 - 01-23-2013

Stepfan does not seem to be getting much love from the ESPN scouts...

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/52852/franklin-leading-pac-12-senior-bowl-charge
http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/52889/pac-12-shines-on-day-2-of-senior-bowl-practices

I think he'll be a mid round selection, and he could be a solid guy in the right setting, ie Alfred Morris, or he could flounder as the 3rd string RB in somebody's backfield.

The thing about RB in the NFL is that the great ones are usually freaks in some way. But the difference between a decent starter and a practice squad player is very slim. Hence why so many teams don't mind waiting on RBs until the later rounds.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - fullmetal - 01-23-2013

I wonder if the North/South designations refer to a player's high school rather than college...huh. 

I agree that Taylor will need the right kind of situation (personnel/scheme) to shine--hopefully a nice OL included.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - Bruce Wang - 01-24-2013

Seems to me that Andrew Luck is calling the shots now, so hopefully the Colts will draft Kulabafi.  He's got to be better than Ballard.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - fullmetal - 01-25-2013

I see Taylor as a RB in the Matt Forte mold.  I do think Taylor would do better than the timeshare going on in the Colts backfield.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - stan01 - 01-25-2013

Stepfan got the Senior Bowl Practice Award.  He impressed a lot of scouts there:

Eric Galko ‏@OptimumScouting
Notable players who impressed me today: Rb Stepfan Taylor, OT Lane Johnson, OG Larry Warford, LB Vince Williams, and Saf Shawn Williams.

‏@TonyPauline
Stepfan Taylor/RB/Stanford continues to shine.  Annihilated Nico Johson/Alabama on a blitz pick up.

@RUSSLANDE
#Jets seemed extremely interested in Stepfan Taylor as RB who could be the replacement for free agent to be Shonn Greene.

@TonyPauline
Stepfan Taylor/RB/Stanford having a sensational practice.

Mark Dulgerian ‏@markdulgerianOS
Sitting at airport amongst smattering of NFL scouts. FWIW #Packers gushing about Stepfan Taylor's week to #49ers scouts

Re: Stepfan's prospects - 76lsjumb - 01-25-2013

(01-25-2013, 02:37 PM)stan01 link Wrote:Stepfan got the Senior Bowl Practice Award.  He impressed a lot of scouts there:

Eric Galko ‏@OptimumScouting
Notable players who impressed me today: Rb Stepfan Taylor, OT Lane Johnson, OG Larry Warford, LB Vince Williams, and Saf Shawn Williams.

‏@TonyPauline
Stepfan Taylor/RB/Stanford continues to shine.  Annihilated Nico Johson/Alabama on a blitz pick up.

@RUSSLANDE
#Jets seemed extremely interested in Stepfan Taylor as RB who could be the replacement for free agent to be Shonn Greene.

@TonyPauline
Stepfan Taylor/RB/Stanford having a sensational practice.

Mark Dulgerian ‏@markdulgerianOS
Sitting at airport amongst smattering of NFL scouts. FWIW #Packers gushing about Stepfan Taylor's week to #49ers scouts

Apparently those ESPN Insiders to whom dabigv linked earlier were attending practices for a different Senior Bowl with a different guy named Taylor...

I'm not sure what the "PN" stands for, but it seems "ES" must be the abbreviation for "Especially Stupid..."

Re: Stepfan's prospects - Rando - 01-25-2013

I think Gerhart can be a feature back if he wasn't behind the best HB in the league. He has a nice YPC and serves as a good #2 back in Minnesota.

Stepfan is an all around half back...I'm thinking like Matt Forte and Frank Gore. I can see Stepfan having a good career. I really hope he does.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - fullmetal - 01-26-2013

When AP was out with his ACL injury, Gerhart still didn't look like the world-beater I wish he was.  He was serviceable in the way that most of Green Bay's RBs this year have been serviceable...

There were about six games in 2011 where Toby either split significant carries with AP or was the outright starter.  He averaged 4.7 ypc over 90 carries for one TD.  Yup, just one.  In fact, if you take away his longest gains per game, he averages 3.3 ypc.  Over that same time span, Toby averaged 6 yards per reception through 15 receptions.  Taking out his longest receptions per game, he averages a very consistent 5.1 yards per reception.

But given a full offseason as some team's feature back and the chance to take a bunch of reps with the starters, I do think he would perform better.  I don't think his ceiling has been reached yet.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - terry - 01-26-2013

But you can't just arbitrarily take away a player's longest runs when you're analyzing the stats. The longest runs are part of his body of work. There's no justification for ignoring them. That's just not a valid way to analyze the stats.

For his career, these are Gerhart's stats:

Rushing -- 240 attempts, 1,022 yards, 4.3 yards/attempt
Receiving -- 64 receptions, 512 yards, 8.0 yards/catch

That would be a pretty good season, if he had done it all in one year.

I hope Toby can get out from behind Peterson and get a chance to play more somewhere else.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - Bruce Wang - 01-26-2013

(01-23-2013, 12:21 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Mel Kiper doesn't include Stepfan Taylor in his top 5 senior RBs.

Mel Kiper is a preening schmoo.

Re: Stepfan's prospects - fullmetal - 01-26-2013

I remember slogging through this earlier on the board :p  The yards per carry are going to look serviceable at 4.7, but only one touchdown?  Not good...

Re: Stepfan's prospects - yvonne - 01-26-2013

Stepfan ran for 53 yards on nine carries for an average of 5.9 ypc.

He trailed only Jonathan Franklin of the North, who had five carries for 41 yards. I don't know whether the North squad used him in that spread out style that was so effective against us.