The CardBoard
Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 (/thread-5205.html)


Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - washingtonismoney - 05-28-2013

https://twitter.com/BFeldmanCBS/status/339411784656105472

"Latest BCS odds: Bama 3-1; OSU & A&M 13-2; ORE 7-1; GA 14-1; Stan 16-1; LSU 18-1; UF 20-1; UL 22-1; CLE 25-1; MIA, MICH & SoC 28-1 (Bovada)"

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - CowboyIndian - 05-28-2013

That's worth a $100 bet. Do you take checks?

Re: SportingNews Preseason Ranking: Stanford #2 - Bruce Wang - 05-28-2013

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2013-05-24/college-football-preseason-rankings-top-25-2013-sporting-news/

Preseason #2 should be good for better than 16-1.  Then again, just checked Vegas: Stanford is 18-1.

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - washingtonismoney - 05-28-2013

(05-28-2013, 10:56 AM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:That's worth a $100 bet. Do you take checks?

Yes. A Nigerian prince will be in touch shortly.

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - OutsiderFan - 05-28-2013

Stanford may be overvalued, but not any more so than LSU or Georgia.

LSU and Georgia had many guys drafted off their defenses.  It seems a little bit presumptuous that those two teams would have odds close to Stanford's.

Probably fair to have Alabama, aTm, Ohio State and Oregon above Stanford in the odds department, but Oregon shouldn't be favored very much more.

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - Farm93 - 05-28-2013

These odds reflect scheduling realities that negatively impact Stanford.

Stanford has a 12 game schedule that includes 10 BCS AQ games, a non-AQ opponent that was ranked in the top 25 last year, and a road game all the way across the country against Army.  Worse, the toughest games are at the end of the season, making it unlikely that Stanford will recover from a late loss.  That is not a schedule friendly for a BCS run.

Many in the SEC will have only 8 BCS AQ games and 4 other home games against very weak FBS or FCS teams.  And for those teams they will get some of the weakest SEC teams and an FCS team in November.  That is a schedule friendly for a BCS run.

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - Spiny_Norman - 05-28-2013

Alabama has the mid-season lead for the Fulmer Cup too, though two Pac 12 schools are very close behind.

http://www.sportsargumentwiki.com/index.php?title=Fulmer_Cup

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - OutsiderFan - 05-28-2013

Those Fulmer Cup standings are from March 14.  Surely there must be a more recent update?  Would the Summer break be considered the "stretch drive" for the Fulmer Cup, when the serious contenders break away from the pretenders?

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - OutsiderFan - 05-28-2013

(05-28-2013, 02:22 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:These odds reflect scheduling realities that negatively impact Stanford.

Stanford has a 12 game schedule that includes 10 BCS AQ games, a non-AQ opponent that was ranked in the top 25 last year, and a road game all the way across the country against Army.  Worse, the toughest games are at the end of the season, making it unlikely that Stanford will recover from a late loss.  That is not a schedule friendly for a BCS run.

Many in the SEC will have only 8 BCS AQ games and 4 other home games against very weak FBS or FCS teams.  And for those teams they will get some of the weakest SEC teams and an FCS team in November.  That is a schedule friendly for a BCS run.

This makes some sense.  Stanford can probably afford one loss and still make the BCS title game given the gauntlet of a schedule they face.  But that loss probably can't be against Oregon because the Pac-12 doesn't have the cachet to have a team in the BCS title game that doesn't win its conference.  Losing to Oregon likely counts as two losses; an L in the loss column, and head-to-head tiebreaker loss as well.

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - stupac2 - 05-28-2013

Aren't these odds calculated based on how people bet? Do we expect them to reflect wisdom-of-the-crowds consensus, or just "who are the more optimistic/homerific fanbases?"

Re: Updated national title odds: Stanford #6 - FarmBoy - 05-28-2013

I'm not an expert in gambling, by any stretch, but I've always heard that if "homer fans" bet the line so that it's out of wack with the likely outcome, then the "wiseguys" step in and place money on the other side of the line in order to make a profit. But I don't know if pre-season bets on who will will the championship are the kind of bet that "wiseguys" focus on, since the pay off is so far out and they're betting on one team to beat the field. My sense is that line based betting is a fairly "efficient market" but maybe not if the category is too niche.