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Well, 71Bear called THAT one - Printable Version

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Here's why it will probably get WORSE - Redrum - 06-11-2013

From Bear Insider:

Quote:Here is the issue-

Report year/ SINGLE YEAR APR
2010/963
2011/921
2012/923
2013/923

(remember that report year lags 1 year behind, so today's 2013 report is for the 2011-12 academic year... and the 2011 fall football season).

So guess what happens when that 963 rolls off the books and is replaced by XXX? We need around a 950 from this current year to stay above 930.

AND..."our own" 71 Bear explains why 930 is an important number and how the rolling average is the gift that keeps on giving (emphasis mine):

"This is a four year rolling average. The score for 11-12 was 923. This does not bode well for the future because it is in the "penalty zone" and will remain on the scorecard for three more years. Also, we can anticipate one more terrible year (12-13) before Dykes can (hopefully) begin turning things around.


Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - OutsiderFan - 06-11-2013

Probably appropriate to refer to the school in Berkeley as Low APR U given today's news...

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - FarmBoy - 06-11-2013

So, what's the probability Ca.l gets hit with a postseason ban in football next year? Seems pretty likely, the way things are going (on the other hand, will the post season ban matter in '14?)

And, one of the B.e.ars does his best Kevin Bacon imitation - Redrum - 06-11-2013

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

If you look at it the right way,  the low APR is just validation about how academically virtuous Kal is:

Quote:"For those who don't know, the APR is simply the percentage of student athletes who remain in school and academically eligible times 1000. That's it. It is not a reflection of those students' grades, or even graduation rates.

So 93.5 % of our football players in 2011-12 remained in school and aademically eligible. It begs the question, what do we require to be academically eligible? Is it in any way more difficult than other schools? Do our professors grade harder?"


Re: Here's why it will probably get WORSE - yvonne - 06-11-2013

(06-11-2013, 01:40 PM)Redrum link Wrote:From Bear Insider:

Quote:Here is the issue-

Report year/ SINGLE YEAR APR
2010/963
2011/921
2012/923
2013/923

(remember that report year lags 1 year behind, so today's 2013 report is for the 2011-12 academic year... and the 2011 fall football season).

So guess what happens when that 963 rolls off the books and is replaced by XXX? We need around a 950 from this current year to stay above 930.

AND..."our own" 71 Bear explains why 930 is an important number and how the rolling average is the gift that keeps on giving (emphasis mine):

"This is a four year rolling average. The score for 11-12 was 923. This does not bode well for the future because it is in the "penalty zone" and will remain on the scorecard for three more years. Also, we can anticipate one more terrible year (12-13) before Yikes can (hopefully) begin turning things around.

If we assume, based on the current average,  that the number 921 from 2011 is incorrect and should be 931, then Cal will need a 940 this year to avoid any sanctions. Given the events so far this season, that's unlikely.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - FarmBoy - 06-11-2013

And what happens when the '14 Ca'l football team runs through their schedule undefeated but can't participate in the the post season because of APR related sanctions? Mass suicides in Strawberry Canyon? Does Kapp just go ahead and drink the whole bottle of tequila, followed by a handful of sleeping pills? Does Tedford get tracked down by Avinash Kunnath for a ritual killing?

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - needle - 06-11-2013

I'd be shocked if Kal or any Pac-12 football program is ever sanctioned. Of all they ways schools game the system, I hope Kal chooses this one:

Quote:An oft-used method of manipulating APR scores is recruiting former team non-graduates to return to the university and earn a degree. For example, if a basketball team needs to dramatically raise its APR score, providing financial support for a former player to come back to school can save the team from serious penalties and embarrassment. To finance such a degree completion program for former players is expensive and often not a viable option for underfunded institutions.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8248046/college-sports-programs-find-multitude-ways-game-ncaa-apr

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - washingtonismoney - 06-11-2013

(06-11-2013, 02:53 PM)needle link Wrote:I'd be shocked if Kal or any Pac-12 football program is ever sanctioned.

They banned UConn from March Madness thsi year. And UConn's a much better basketball school than kal is a football school. So I wouldn't be shocked at all.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - 71Bear - 06-11-2013

...and the score will be worse next year because of two reasons:  1) the 963 tallied in 2009 will drop off and because this year, 2012-13, was a horrible year (remember that I said that CoachDykes is cutting his losses now to get them behind him).

The good news is that the penalty that Berkeley will receive next year as a result of missing the target (and they certainly will) is a "Letter of Reprimand".  The real penalties, loss of scholarships and bowl restrictions, don't begin until Year 2 and 3 respectively of the penalty phase.  Therefore, CoachDykes has to get things in order beginning in 2013-14 to avoid the draconian penalties.

As noted in an earlier post, color me skeptical........


Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - Roberton3 - 06-12-2013

(06-11-2013, 02:53 PM)needle link Wrote:I'd be shocked if Kal or any Pac-12 football program is ever sanctioned. Of all they ways schools game the system, I hope Kal chooses this one:

Quote:An oft-used method of manipulating APR scores is recruiting former team non-graduates to return to the university and earn a degree. For example, if a basketball team needs to dramatically raise its APR score, providing financial support for a former player to come back to school can save the team from serious penalties and embarrassment. To finance such a degree completion program for former players is expensive and often not a viable option for underfunded institutions.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8248046/college-sports-programs-find-multitude-ways-game-ncaa-apr

I don't think I'd even call that gaming the system.  The point of the APR system is to give schools an incentive to make sure players graduate.  The "gaming" method you mention is doing just that -- albeit doing it after they've stopped playing.  But it seems to be completely in line with the goal of the whole system.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - Bruce Wang - 06-12-2013

(06-11-2013, 05:29 PM)71Bear link Wrote:The good news is that the penalty that Berkeley will receive next year as a result of missing the target (and they certainly will) is a "Letter of Reprimand".  The real penalties, loss of scholarships and bowl restrictions, don't begin until Year 2 and 3 respectively of the penalty phase.  Therefore, CoachDykes has to get things in order beginning in 2013-14 to avoid the draconian penalties.

With regards to the 59ers, I can't think of a more toothless sanction than a bowl ban.

Re: And, one of the B.e.ars does his best Kevin Bacon imitation - terry - 06-12-2013

(06-11-2013, 02:14 PM)Redrum link Wrote:
Quote:"For those who don't know, the APR is simply the percentage of student athletes who remain in school and academically eligible times 1000. That's it. It is not a reflection of those students' grades, or even graduation rates.

So 93.5 % of our football players in 2011-12 remained in school and aademically eligible. It begs the question, what do we require to be academically eligible? Is it in any way more difficult than other schools? Do our professors grade harder?"

That's wrong. It's more complicated than that. The NCAA says that a four-year APR of 930 is supposed to correspond to a graduation rate of 50%.

Just to be clear... - Redrum - 06-12-2013

The quote that terry deconstructs (above) is a quote from a B.e.ar that I used in my post.  My crime, among many I'm sure,  is that I quoted a B.e.ar expecting him to have his facts straight.

To quote my favorite series of phone commercials - jacketree - 06-12-2013

(with the kids and/or former NBA stars and the straight man)

"It's not complicated"

The APR is is simple calculation of percentage, multiplied by 1000. It has nothing to do with graduation. There is no specific correlation, although maybe someone has gone through and correlated multi-year APR averages to graduation rates.  From the NCAA:

Quote:Each student-athlete receiving athletically related financial aid earns one retention point for staying in school and one eligibility point for being academically eligible. A team’s total points are divided by points possible and then multiplied by one thousand to equal the team’s Academic Progress Rate score.

"Academically eligible" must mean per NCAA rules to play. So you get a point for registering (I guess) and a point for meeting academic eligibility requirements. I can't tell if you need to be a full time student or not.

The way I read it, the APR is just the ratio of those on athletic scholarship (partial or full) who are academically eligible and/or registered at some point in time (end of a semester/quarter/year?)  to [(the total number on athletic scholarship) x2 points], at that same point in time.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - 82 Card - 06-12-2013

Sounds like it's really a 500 point scale. If you ignore the free point, you can compute the percentage of players meeting eligibility requirements:
((APR-500)/500)*100=%eligible
A 930 translates to 14% of the players ineligible to play and a 923 translates to 15.4% ineligible. I have no idea what the relationship is between remaining eligible and eventually graduating.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - 82 Card - 06-12-2013

From the NCAA web site at http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/resources/latest+news/2013/june/student-athletes+continue+classroom+success:

Quote:In order to compete in the 2013-14 postseason, teams must achieve a 900 multi-year APR or a 930 average over the most recent two years. The same standard was in place for the 2012-13 academic year. This standard will increase to a multi-year 930, which predicts to a Graduation Success Rate of approximately 50 percent, or a 940 two-year average APR for the 2014-15 postseason.

If Kal can bring the 2014 APR above 957, they can avoid post-season ban, if that becomes relevant.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - terry - 06-12-2013

The APR number for a year isn't just the percent who remained in school and stayed eligible times 1000, as the UC Berkeley fan indicated.

For example, assume a football team of 80 players. Everyone is eligible to play in the fall and everyone returns for the spring. In the spring semester, 68 players stay eligible and either graduate or return, while 12 players become ineligible and drop out. At the end of the year, the percentage of players who were retained and stayed eligible is 85% (68/80). The APR calculation is this: For the fall semester, 80 players get 2 points each (one point for being in school and one point for being eligible), for 160 points. For the spring semester, 68 players get 2 points each, and 12 players get 0 points, for 136 points. Total points = 296, total possible points = 320. The APR = 296/320 x 1000 = 925.

Of the original 80 players, let's assume there were 25 freshmen, 21 sophomores, 17 juniors, 13 seniors, and 4 fifth year seniors. Let's assume that 9 of the 13 of the seniors graduated, along with the 4 fifth year seniors, for a total of 13 graduates, and that the other 4 seniors return for a fifth year. Let's assume that of the 12 players who dropped out, 4 were freshmen, 4 were sophomores, and 4 were juniors.

In year 2, let's assume that a new class of 25 freshmen arrives. Then the same thing happens as in the previous year. Then it happens again in year 3, again in year 4, and so on.

Each entering class starts with 25 players and ends up with 13 graduates, for a graduation rate of 52%. The four-year APR is 925.

In real life, there are more variations, with players transferring in and out, players becoming ineligible and then regaining eligibility, players exhausting eligibility without graduating (they lose a point), players turning pro (they don't lose a retention point), players returning to school after a pro career (they can earn an extra point by graduating), and so forth.

To me, an APR number such as 925 is not intuitive. It doesn't mean anything in real life. Contrary to what the UC Berkeley fan said, you can't just drop a decimal in it and turn it into a meaningful percentage.

According to the NCAA, an APR of 930 predicts a graduation rate of 50%.

Re: Well, 71Bear called THAT one - jacketree - 06-12-2013

OK maybe I was wrong. It is complicated. Or the NCAA can't explain a formula in FAQ to save its life.

The APR seems to just provide an incentive to keep kids in school and eligible as long as possible. As such there is a slight advantage to the quarter system as long as people remain eligible.

Let's use Terry's example, but with quarters. (I'm assuming the calculation is the same.)

Start with 80, 68 remain at the end of spring.  If those 68 also make it through winter, the APR is higher than a semester program with the same retention rate that academic year:

Fall points:      80 x 2 =160
Winter points:  80 x 2 = 160
Spring points:  68 x 2 = 136

Total achieved = 456
Total available = 160 x 3 = 480

APR = 456/480 x 1000 = 950 > 925

Schools are rewarded for keeping people eligible longer. Same situation but half of those 12 drop out winter quarter:

Fall points:      80 x 2 =160
Winter points:  74 x 2 = 148
Spring points:  68 x 2 = 136

Total achieved = 444
Total available = 160 x 3 = 480

APR = 444/480 x 1000 = 925  (ruh, row, raggy; again same end of year retention but now the program is in trouble)

Schools are also rewarded for having ineligible kids try to regain eligibility rather than up and quit. That seems like a good thing. Assume instead of dropping out winter quarter, those 6 stay in school and since they can't play, they sit on the bench in street clothes, become morose, and fail out spring quarter anyway. But at least they were there; if only a name in a database.

Fall points:      80 x 2 =160
Winter points:  74 x 2 + 6 x 1 = 154
Spring points:  68 x 2 = 136

Total achieved = 450
Total available = 160 x 3 = 480

APR = 450/480 x 1000 = 938  (same exact situation at the end of the year, but we have staved off sanctions)

Jay Bilas backs up Terry - jacketree - 06-12-2013

Quote:Your education is determined by NCAA's APR the same way your health is measured by weight, or your maturity by age. It has little meaning.

A tweet or something I saw somewhere else.

Re: Jay Bilas backs up Terry - stupac2 - 06-12-2013

(06-12-2013, 08:20 PM)jacketree link Wrote:
Quote:Your education is determined by NCAA's APR the same way your health is measured by weight, or your maturity by age. It has little meaning.

A tweet or something I saw somewhere else.

Yeah, anyone who thinks that Alabama and Stanford are doing equally well at educating their players is seriously deluded.