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Big opening line vs. SJSU - washingtonismoney - 09-02-2013

STAN (-26.5 thru -27.5) vs SJSU

(see http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ and http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports?categoryId=206)

Other lines of interest:

Ball State (-7.5 thru -9) vs Army
SC (-15 thru -16.5) vs WSU
Oregon State (-27) vs Hawai'i.
Oregon (-21 thru -24) @ Virginia
N.D. (+3.5 thru +4) @ Michigan




Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - rudruff - 09-02-2013

Wow, that seems a bit high.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - yvonne - 09-02-2013

That's crazy. I'm glad the team doesn't pay attention to that.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - ChicagoCard - 09-02-2013

Yes, acknowledging that San Jose St is on a surge of just one season, they are a bit like the Reno of FBS teams. I don't see anybody considering them a contender in the Mountain West or even in their division. Paul Myerberg of USA Today who does a pre-season ranking of all FBS teams has them at 70. (I also think Mike McIntyre is a sleeper among new major conference program head coaches.)

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - JeffInCorvallis - 09-02-2013

I don't gamble, but if I did I would take San Jose and the points.  Hope I'm wrong, but I think it's much closer than that.  Just watched Eastern Washington take down OSU, and while I don't think the Spartans have a single player as exciting as Vernon Adams, as a team they may be roughly on par.

Not feeling it... - AlbanyCardinal - 09-03-2013

(09-02-2013, 11:16 PM)JeffInCorvallis link Wrote:I don't gamble, but if I did I would take San Jose and the points.  Hope I'm wrong, but I think it's much closer than that.  Just watched Eastern Washington take down OSU, and while I don't think the Spartans have a single player as exciting as Vernon Adams, as a team they may be roughly on par.

SJSU loses its head coach and key personnel on both sides of the ball (including their career sack leader). Their secondary is young, thin, and somewhat banged up. I respect SJSU mainly b/c of Fales and what its previous coach did to right the ship. But even Fales had a mediocre game agst. Sac St. Should he get back to his old ways agst. us, I still think our seniority, talent, depth, and QB (whom they were fortunate to miss last season) will win out more comfortably than last season.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - Cardinal96 - 09-03-2013

Yeah, I would take San Jose State with that spread.  Which means we will probably cover.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - OutsiderFan - 09-03-2013

If Stanford is as good as it's #4 ranking, Stanford will cover. 

It never ceases to amaze me how Cal fans (in general) always overrate their team and Stanford fans (in general) always underrate their team when it comes to football and basketball.  Cal was an underdog by like 5-6 points to Northwestern and there was no shortage of Cal fans predicting a 2 TD+ Cal victory.  Now, Stanford is favored by 27 against a team it should roll, and here we have Stanford fans showing no confidence in their team to meet high expectations.

To put this another way, Florida State beat Pitt on the road with a RS Frosh QB, 41-13, a score that would beat the spread if you were to substitute Pitt for SJSU and Stanford for Florida State.  Is San Jose better than Pitt?  No way.  Nevada is surely better than San Jose also, and they got thumped by 30+ by UCLA.

Remember, David Shaw wants to emphasize the WRs to put points on the board because he knows he's got to impress poll voters, and he's got one of the most dominant defenses in the country.  I just don't understand why any Stanford fan wouldn't lay the 27 points.





Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - Cardinal96 - 09-03-2013

(09-03-2013, 04:53 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:If Stanford is as good as it's #4 ranking, Stanford will cover. 

It never ceases to amaze me how Low APR U fans (in general) always overrate their team and Stanford fans (in general) always underrate their team when it comes to football and basketball.  Low APR U was an underdog by like 5-6 points to Northwestern and there was no shortage of Low APR U fans predicting a 2 TD+ Low APR U victory.  Now, Stanford is favored by 27 against a team it should roll, and here we have Stanford fans showing no confidence in their team to meet high expectations.

To put this another way, Florida State beat Pitt on the road with a RS Frosh QB, 41-13, a score that would beat the spread if you were to substitute Pitt for SJSU and Stanford for Florida State.  Is San Jose better than Pitt?  No way.  Nevada is surely better than San Jose also, and they got thumped by 30+ by UCLA.

Remember, David Shaw wants to emphasize the WRs to put points on the board because he knows he's got to impress poll voters, and he's got one of the most dominant defenses in the country.  I just don't understand why any Stanford fan wouldn't lay the 27 points.

I have vivid memories of last year's nailbiter so I have a hard time seeing us win by that kind of margin.  I see us winning by 17 points or so.  But I would love to beat them by 5 TD's.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - Leftcoast - 09-03-2013

Oh, there are reasons for a betting man to be cautious of this game - Stanford opening game miscues, a long week of prep for the Spartans, an early season date that guarantees their best, pre-attrition shot and the close game last year in our Rose Bowl season.

I see it differently. Stanford is the better and bigger team at almost every position and playing at home.  Stanford should dominate the third/fourth quarters and this team won't be surprised by their resurgent neighbors.  No need for the stereotypical Stanford caution. "We smoke these guys."

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - washingtonismoney - 09-03-2013

(09-03-2013, 07:28 AM)NYCCardinalFan link Wrote:I have vivid memories of last year's nailbiter so I have a hard time seeing us win by that kind of margin.  I see us winning by 17 points or so.  But I would love to beat them by 5 TD's.

I agree that 17 points or so might happen but don't agree with the logic you've taken to get there. Last year is not particularly material to this year -- for Stanford, you have to sub in Hogan for Nunes, put in Skov for Vaughters, Gaffney for Taylor, etc. On the other hand, SJSU loses a ton, as has already been mentioned.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - 76lsjumb - 09-03-2013

(09-03-2013, 04:53 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:It never ceases to amaze me how [...] Stanford fans (in general) always underrate their team when it comes to [...] basketball. 

Okay, I figured I'd beat garvin to the punch on this one...

Re: basketball, it's not really hard to explain these days.  Just think: Charlie Brown; Lucy; Placekick.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - terry - 09-03-2013

Two things I don't like about the San Jose State match-up:

It's Stanford's first game, but SJSU's second game. As we saw in a number of games last week, even good teams can have some problems in their first game. SJSU already had a chance to get the misfires, drops, sloppiness, and mistakes out of its system. It's often said that the biggest improvement of the season comes between game 1 and game 2. SJSU has moved along that improvement curve. Stanford still has to cope with those issues. Stanford is at a disadvantage.

This is the biggest game of the year for San Jose State. There's nothing close to this on the rest of their schedule. San Jose State has not defeated a ranked opponent in 13 years, and never has defeated a team ranked in the top 5. If San Jose State were to win this game, it probably would be the biggest win in school history. This is their chance to make a major statement. After coming so close last year, they must believe they can win. Stanford, on the other hand, doesn't have the same factors in play. This game is not in the discussion of Stanford's important games this season. Stanford is just trying to avoid an upset in a game it should win. I don't like that dynamic.

Stanford is the better team and should win. But I'm worried about this game. I just want to get out with a win. Style points would be nice, but aren't essential.

I agree... - Mick - 09-03-2013

good post, I was thinking the same thing. I also think Caragher says before the game, "If you want to play in the NFL, this will be the only game on our schedule that NFL coaches will want to see" or words to that effect.  Every single SJSU player will bring their "A" game, such as it is.

Fales wasn't lights out last week (16 of 32), but if he was getting his timing down and their coaching staff was holding back on their play selection and they pull out all the stops against Stanford and SJSU's receivers do well against Stanford's defense and SJSU's defense plays aggressively and SJSU's DBs make things tough for Hogan and Hogan is a little bit rusty, then....well, in all honesty, SJSU probably stays close for a half, then loses by 2 TDs.  IMHO, that's their best case scenario.

As for what I think will actually happen?  Stanford 44, SJSU 10.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - Extra Point - 09-03-2013

I agree with Terry on this one. Anyone who watched games last weekend saw a lot of mistakes. This happens every year. By the second weekend, most of the jitters and miscuesd are worked out. I think there is another factor to this game as well. San Jose has had one more week of practice than Stanford. Bill Walsh once said that the thing he liked the most about bowl games is that it gave him two more weeks to prepare for the next season. Another week of practice is a big deal. Put me in the worried category.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - 76lsjumb - 09-03-2013

Everything in terry's post is spot on.  However, if Shaw is half the motivator I think he is, there isn't a thing in terry's post that: (1) Shaw hasn't considered, and (2) Shaw and the other coaches haven't made clear to the team. 

Now, whether the team internalizes and responds appropriately is what makes Saturday's game interesting. It gives us a chance very early to know whether we're contenders...or pretenders.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - oman - 09-03-2013

I think Stanford's champing at the bit.  I think they are going to rock SJSU. 

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - OutsiderFan - 09-03-2013

(09-03-2013, 12:39 PM)garvin link Wrote:
Quote:David Shaw wants to emphasize the WRs to put points on the board because he knows he's got to impress poll voters

What's the evidence for this claim, OutsiderFan? I've never heard Shaw say anything of the sort.

He never said anything about poll voters (of course), but he did say something about emphasizing the WRs this year to be a more explosive (or similar adjective) offense, which is a euphemism for "score more points."  I'm pretty sure Shaw knows if he had that more explosive offense with his defense last year, Stanford would have played Alabama in the BCS Championship game.  He's got arguably an even better defense in 2013, now he needs that more explosive offense, which I'm imagining will be on full display against San Jose State.

As far as the "they have had a game to get the mistakes out" notion, exactly how many mistakes is Sac State good enough to force?  My guess is San Jose will make far more mistakes this week than last because Stanford is orders of magnitude better than Sac State.

Re: Big opening line vs. SJSU - Extra Point - 09-03-2013

"He never said anything about poll voters (of course), but he did say something about emphasizing the WRs this year to be a more explosive (or similar adjective) offense, which is a euphemism for "score more points."

All coaches want to outscore opponents by a safe margin. But, I doubt Shaw wants to score more points to wow poll voters. A major premise of power is controling the clock so the opponent's offense cannot get on the field. What Shaw said was he wanted to see more long passes. The reason for doing this in a power offense is to force the safeties to play deeper. The same logic applies to plays like the fly sweep, bubble screens, and spider 3 Y banana. These plays force the defensive lineman and linebackers to spread out. The more vertical and horizontal space that a defense has to account for, the more effective power running becomes.

I see more to like than not like... - AlbanyCardinal - 09-03-2013

(09-03-2013, 10:24 AM)terry link Wrote:Two things I don't like about the San Jose State match-up:

It's Stanford's first game, but SJSU's second game. As we saw in a number of games last week, even good teams can have some problems in their first game. SJSU already had a chance to get the misfires, drops, sloppiness, and mistakes out of its system. It's often said that the biggest improvement of the season comes between game 1 and game 2. SJSU has moved along that improvement curve. Stanford still has to cope with those issues. Stanford is at a disadvantage.

This is the biggest game of the year for San Jose State. There's nothing close to this on the rest of their schedule. San Jose State has not defeated a ranked opponent in 13 years, and never has defeated a team ranked in the top 5. If San Jose State were to win this game, it probably would be the biggest win in school history. This is their chance to make a major statement. After coming so close last year, they must believe they can win. Stanford, on the other hand, doesn't have the same factors in play. This game is not in the discussion of Stanford's important games this season. Stanford is just trying to avoid an upset in a game it should win. I don't like that dynamic.

Stanford is the better team and should win. But I'm worried about this game. I just want to get out with a win. Style points would be nice, but aren't essential.

For one, losing Macintyre is a big loss, imo. Then, the graduation of several key players. One could argue the same for Stanford, but we didn't lose our career sack leader and our talent is more spread out across the entire team, especially on D.

On Stanford's side, there's the addition of Hogan. Not only does SJSU miss out playing agst. a raw Nunes, but they get a more seasoned Hogan. As well, the defense that SJSU faced last year was not the unit it became by season's end -- and the Spartans took advantage of that. In Saturday's game, SJSU will face what many of us agree is a deeper, more talented and veteran defense than last year's at its peak. Same goes for the offensive line, which played its worse game of the season agst. SJSU, IIRC. Will the play of this year's line on Saturday likely be as bad? I doubt it, given some of the changes and maturation, even factoring in the loss of Schwartzstein.

All this adds up to a more comfortable margin of victory, imo.