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Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - Printable Version

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Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - PrinceLightfoot - 10-06-2013

http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,53/r,T/s,25/t1,89/v,404/w,7/

Billinglsey and Colley Matrix both have us ranked #1
Massey Ratings has us ranked #2
Anderson/Hester  has us ranked #4
Sagarin has us ranked #12 (I am guessing his model weighs special teams production less than it does total offensive yardage)

Wolfe Ratings has not released any pre-BCS numbers for this year.

If this holds and we clean up against Utah next week, we will most likely see a BCS ranking of 3 or 4 when they first come out if the Harris Interactive poll mirrors the AP poll as it usually does.

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - JeffInCorvallis - 10-06-2013

Sagarin's computer, which I generally used to think was pretty good, must be putting some weight on margin of victory.  He has Oregon #1 and Baylor #3.  Granted, these two teams light up the scoreboard like pinball machines, but neither has played anybody yet.  Baylor is really better than Stanford, Washington, UCLA, LSU, and Florida State?  Let's just say I'm skeptical until they prove otherwise.  Their (UO and Baylor) strengths of schedule to date are laughable.  I'm very interested to see what the Huskies are able to do against the Ducks next week in Seattle.

No matter, we just have to keep winning.  If we win out through the remaining murderous schedule our SOS will be such that no one can ignore us.  From yesterday we see just how tough that is going to be.  We're going to take everyone's best shot.



Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2013

(10-06-2013, 03:49 PM)JeffInCorvallis link Wrote:Sagarin's computer, which I generally used to think was pretty good, must be putting some weight on margin of victory.  ...

Sagarin's PREDICTOR rating (which has us 7th) factors in margin of victory. BCS computers are banned from doing so. Sagarin thinks the rankings that don't factor in margin of victory are less accurate than those that do (which represents the consensus of most ranking folks).

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - dabigv13 - 10-06-2013

I'm a bit baffled by Sagarin's ratings...he has us with the 13th ranked schedule, far higher than any other similarly ranked teams. If you don't take into account margin of victory, then all that matters should be record (unblemished) and SOS.

The only explanation I have is that we've had 3 wins at home? But even that is not far out of line with other teams...anybody have an explanation?

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - washingtonismoney - 10-06-2013

(10-06-2013, 04:08 PM)dabigv link Wrote:I'm a bit baffled by Sagarin's ratings...he has us with the 13th ranked schedule, far higher than any other similarly ranked teams. If you don't take into account margin of victory, then all that matters should be record (unblemished) and SOS.

The only explanation I have is that we've had 3 wins at home? But even that is not far out of line with other teams...anybody have an explanation?

Yeah, it is weird. Not sure what's going on. Still, I can't bring myself to care about BCS ratings this early in the season.

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - fullmetal - 10-06-2013

I'd like to see our defense hold its own against a high-octane spread tempo (rather than hang on and survive it).  Specifically, I'm hoping the players get some more conditioning that allows them to block effectively and pass rush effectively in the 4Q.

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - CowboyIndian - 10-06-2013

(10-06-2013, 04:17 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:I'd like to see our defense hold its own against a high-octane spread tempo (rather than hang on and survive it).  Specifically, I'm hoping the players get some more conditioning that allows them to block effectively and pass rush effectively in the 4Q.

When we won at Oregon we had a lot of sustained drives that kept our D at least semi-fresh. Last night, UW had several long drives of their own and at least one 17-play drive. We followed, I believe, with a 3-and-out. I don't think any amount or quality of conditioning can prepare players for that.

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - fullmetal - 10-06-2013

True.  All three of Stanford's offensive possessions (that were not victory formation drives) were three-and-outs.  All three of them!  They averaged 1:40 of game time each drive.  So much for bleeding clock.  If you want to run the clock out, you're going to have to pick up first downs, and you might have to be a little more creative or execute a little better than dive left/right or tentative jet sweep.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/gameflash/2013/10/05/52513/index.html#drivechart

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - Cardinal96 - 10-06-2013

Looking at Sagarin's ratings, I think the ELO-Chess and Predictor may be mixed.  There is no way we should be ranked behind Baylor in ELO-Chess.  Schedule strengths is clearly in our favor.  And all of Baylor's games have been at home.

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - PrinceLightfoot - 10-07-2013

One week before BCS numbers will be officially calculated, we are ranked #2 using all polls currently available and assuming the Harris Interactive results similarly to the AP poll. If our team wins out, a BCS championship bid is almost a definite conclusion. I am concerned that the high flying offensive production of FSU or Clemson and their margins of victory may trump the power, ball-control philosophy of our offense in the eyes of human voters.

http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,53/p_1,53/r,F/r_1,F/s,25/s_1,25/t1,0/t1_1,0/t2,0/t2_1,0/v,0/v_1,0/w,7/w_1,7/index.php?option=com_psreport&task=top25&p=142&Itemid=3

Here are the results of all polls and the individual AP voters:

http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,36/t1,89/task,singleteamr/

Re: Receiving serious love from the BCS computers (minus one) - needle - 10-07-2013

I'm a little bummed that with Ohio State likely winning out, there's almost certainly no chance for a one-loss Stanford (or any Pac) team playing in the NCG (I don't see 'Bama losing twice or losing to a team with more than one loss).