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Michigan State defense overrated? - metsjetsfan - 12-09-2013

Given that I've read in numerous places that Michigan State has one of the top defenses in the nation (statistically #1 run defense, #4 in points allowed/game), and that many writers have joked about a "first to 20 points" type of game, I was curious to see what offenses they've played against in the Big 10.

With some research, I found that only 2 of the 13 offenses they've played this year (Ohio State and Indiana) finished in the top 40 in total yards in the nation (out of 120 FBS teams). Four teams (Western Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota, South Florida) finished in the bottom 20 in the nation in total yards, and a fifth team is a FCS team (Youngstown St).

In contrast for Stanford, 7 of 12 offenses (8 of 13 if you include Arizona State twice) finished in the top 40 in the nation in total yards. Only one offense was in the bottom 20 (Army at 87th). The next lowest were Utah (77th) and Notre Dame (75th).

Now, perhaps Pac-12 defenses are significantly inferior to Big-10 defenses, and the Pac-12 up-tempo spread attack schemes are more conducive to high scoring teams. Also total yards may not be the best measure of an offense's success, though I think a quick glance at points/game stats tells generally the same story. Regardless, I think there's a very strong case to make that Michigan State's defensive stats have been padded by playing against some very weak offenses.

Given all this, I have serious doubt in my mind that this Michigan State's defense is nearly as formidable as we've been made to believe, and likely not at the same level as Stanford's defense. Stanford's old-school, huddle-up offense is ranked 40th in the nation in total yards, which would be the 3rd best offense that Michigan State has faced so far this year. By points/game, Stanford would be the 4th (out of 14) highest scoring offense that the Spartans have faced. Granted, Ohio State and Indiana were held to just 24 and 28 points respectively against Michigan State. But with the way the offense has played the last few weeks, hanging 27 and 38 points against decent defenses in ND and ASU, I think its more likely than not that Stanford scores more than 20 points against this defense.

On the flip side, Michigan State's offense is in the middle of the pack in total yards at 64th, ranking fewer than all but 3 offenses that Stanford has faced this year. In points/game, their offense would be the 6th (out of 13) highest scoring offense that Stanford has faced. Against common opponent Notre Dame, Michigan State only managed 13 points and 254 yards. Their offense has also had the propensity for plain ineptitude, scoring 14 or fewer points in 3 games this season (Stanford's lowest scoring output was 17 against U$C). With the defense not giving up more than 20 points since losing to Utah, and the fact that the Spartan offense is average relative to both the nation and Stanford's opponents, I have a lot of confidence that our defense can (perhaps easily) hold Michigan State's offense to fewer than 20 points.

Thus, if this is a "first to 20" type of game, I have a lot of faith that Stanford will, rather easily, do just that, and I think the ~1.5 point spread is far too generous to the Spartans. In fact, I predict a roughly 28-14 type of game in favor of Stanford.

But I've only seen just parts of the ND/OSU games - perhaps others on this board who have watched Michigan State more can weigh in? I do respect and believe that the Spartan defense is very good (perhaps comparable to the ND defense), but are they truly elite? Are there others who also think we should be much more than 1.5 point favorites, or am I just being too optimistic/biased in evaluating the numbers??

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - OutsiderFan - 12-09-2013

If you want a simplified assessment, Michigan State and Stanford have defenses on par with each other when you factor in the level of competition, and Stanford has a better offense.

What is interesting is I believe Stanford and Michigan State are the only two teams in the country not to have allowed more than 28 points in any game all season.  For MSU, it's because they haven't played many very good offenses, and for Stanford it's because Stanford's offense has been so good on 3rd down conversions, which has given opposing offenses fewer opportunities.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - fullmetal - 12-09-2013

I think Michigan State is a bit overrated, perhaps better than the U$C team Stanford faced earlier this season, but Stanford will be prepared this time around.  MSU's defensive front seven has not encountered an OL like Stanford's.  OSU might have had a decent OL, but not Stanford-level good.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - rudruff - 12-09-2013

Maybe, but our ability to keep games close concerns me. They are definitely good enough to put us in a situation where we won't want to be late.



Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - stanfan - 12-09-2013

Having watched them play a couple of times, they are outstanding.  We will need our A game.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - Bruce Wang - 12-09-2013

One member of Michigan State's defense is certainly not overrated: Darqueze Dennard.  That guy made play after play in the B1G championship game and that's when the ball got thrown his way.  I suspect they put him on an island and took away one side of the field. 

The matchup between him and Montgomery will be the most interesting one of the Rose Bowl.  Ty is faster, taller and stronger than OSU's receivers so I like his chances.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - stupac2 - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 05:39 AM)fullmetal link Wrote:I think Michigan State is a bit overrated, perhaps better than the U$C team Stanford faced earlier this season, but Stanford will be prepared this time around.  MSU's defensive front seven has not encountered an OL like Stanford's.  OSU might have had a decent OL, but not Stanford-level good.

I was really hoping to see how well they handled Wisconsin, since their offense is similar to ours in a lot of ways, but they didn't play. These conferences where none of the good teams play each other are infuriating.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - greenmachine - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 10:04 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:I was really hoping to see how well they handled Wisconsin, since their offense is similar to ours in a lot of ways, but they didn't play. These conferences where none of the good teams play each other are infuriating.

We were pretty upset that we didn't play Wisconsin, tbh. The past couple of years we have had some awesome games with the Badgers. We had an extremely weak schedule in the regular season when it came to our in-conference opponents, but we've also played well against the "better" (and I use that term loosely, since the B1G isn't exactly the highest caliber conference) teams we have played in Minnesota, Nebraska, and OSU.

Minny plays pro-style and has a beast of a DT in Hageman, who would probably fit in on any D in the country. While they're offense is something to be desired, their season was good compared to previous years of being a lower tier B1G team. Comparing Stanford to Minny would be an insult to Stanford, but it's the best comparison out of the teams MSU has played.

The problem with the B1G is that there are a limited number of "good" teams to play. I wish we could have played Wisky, and think the outcome is dependent on when in our schedule we play them. In the beginning of the year we would have lost to Wisky by double digits. At the end of the year, I could see us struggling with their run game, but being able to control the air well like we did with OSU.

Stanford's OL is the real deal, and will be our biggest task to date. OSU's OL is pretty damn good, but after watching several of your games this season, I would be a fool to think it'll be an easy task to pressure your QB like we were able to with Braxton. Our DL is solid. Doesn't always get the pressure we want, but they are a solid unit which knows their system.

Our secondary is second to none. Kurtis Drummond sometimes can misread his assignment (as seen in the Nebraska game), but our CBs are lock-on and excellent at coverage. Darqueze could go up against any WR in the country and give them a challenge. Our pass defense is dependent on our secondary doing its job. It buys time for the DL to get pressure.

Max Bullough may not be picking up stats like Shazier from OSU, but he's an on-field coach with the way he adjusts plays. Max has been known to override Narduzzi (our D coordinator) and make a better play call. He sets up guys like Denicos Allen to make plays, and Denicos is good at his job. I personally think that our system is excellent and can give anyone a challenge. I suppose we'll have to wait and see if things are overrated when the time comes. The D has certainly played well against pro-style offenses, but your OL is a whole different beast.

Do your receivers rely more on their speed or strength? Curious to know how physical your guys are. The secondary/receiver match-up is the one to watch, imo.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - kuz - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 10:43 AM)spartandawgz link Wrote:Do your receivers rely more on their speed or strength? Curious to know how physical your guys are. The secondary/receiver match-up is the one to watch, imo.
A bit of both. Ty Montgomery is our no.1 receiver and he's a beast (6'2, 215) who runs a 4.4 40. Only problem is that he doesn't have great hands - some games he has a seriously bad case of the dropsies (see USC) and he's always had trouble tracking the ball over his shoulder while running go routes. I imagine Dennard will match up against Ty, which will be interesting - I don't think Ty is particularly great at fighting for the ball, which Dennard seems to be elite at. But Dennard, although no slouch, probably isn't as fast as Ty, so he may be able to get open deep. The other thing is that we like to sling it to Ty in space (either quick screen passes or end-arounds), so the Sparty D will need to be both quick and sound tacklers. Judging by the games I've seen, they should be up to the challenge.

Devon Cajuste is a WR in a TE's body (6'4, 228). Probably not elite speed, but he averages over 20 yards per catch, and he seems to get behind defenses unexpectedly at least twice a game. Unsurprisingly, he's our best blocker (which is of course crucial, consider how often we run the ball).

Michael Rector (6'1, 187) is a burner - averages more than 30 yards per catch, admittedly on a smaller number of catches. In the first half of the season, he was limited to pretty much running go routes, which did work a fair percentage of the time. In the last few games, Shaw has opened up the play book a bit more, no doubt as opposing defensive coordinates have started to key in on Rector's route running habits. The ASU game in particular featured a great play call where Rector feigned to charge off the line, but then turned around and caught a quick screen pass that he turned into a 30 yard gain.

On the whole, this is the most talented group of receivers we've had in several years, but having seen a couple of Sparty games, I think the edge still goes to the Sparty secondary. It doesn't help that Hogan isn't an elite passer and will somehow manage to throw at least one wounded duck every game.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - stupac2 - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 10:43 AM)spartandawgz link Wrote:Do your receivers rely more on their speed or strength? Curious to know how physical your guys are. The secondary/receiver match-up is the one to watch, imo.

Our receivers are really balanced. The guys are all fast, but beasts at run blocking too. Montgomery is clearly the star, he's also the best KR guy in the country. Rector and Whitfield are both speedy and strong. Cajuste isn't as fast, but he's big. His game-changing 80-yard reception came when he was in the slot matched up against a LB, there are probably few LBs in the country where that matchup isn't hilariously terrible for the defense. We like to stretch the field too, a new tendency this year, and Hogan is apparently on of the top 3 QBs in the country at completing passes of 25-yards or more.

One of our posters said in another thread that Dennard (your best corner, right?) on Montgomery is the matchup of the game, so I think you're right to key in on the secondary vs WRs. How are your WRs/passing attack? Lots of downfield? More intermediate?

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - martyup - 12-09-2013

I doubt if the Sparty D could hold Oregon scoreless for 3.5 quarters of football. 

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - greenmachine - 12-09-2013

Thanks for the info, guys. Sounds like it's going to be a really good game. Dennard is going to have his hands full with Montgomery - he's a beast!

(12-09-2013, 11:09 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:How are your WRs/passing attack? Lots of downfield? More intermediate?
We don't really have just one WR who stands out. Cook likes to throw to whoever is open, and it really varies. Cook has been known to make some very bad decisions and throw into coverage - amazingly, he only has 5 picks. Unfortunately, he won't be able to get away with that versus Stanford. He's become much better at decision making and isn't afraid to get tackled when running the ball. The guy seems to dislike sliding, actually.  :-\

We love to use a variety of routes, but often sweeping up the middle for small/medium gains is how we work. We also aren't too bad at throwing to the edge. When the WRs catch, they have (surprisingly) pretty good feet. Occasionally we'll throw a long ball to get the defense out of sync (as was observed with OSU), and we like to revert to screens (which don't always work) when it comes to blitzes. We had a lot of TFLs from OSU because we seemed to enjoy throwing screens.

Our biggest vice is Cook under pressure. The guy either throws an absolute gem, or he decides to see if he can get lucky. He doesn't like to throw it out of bounds that much, but also doesn't like taking sacks. With the pressure your DL can give, I predict Cook having to move in the pocket quite a bit and even make throws on the run (which he either is good at or lays an egg).

While Cook can get flustered easily, he also is reliable on 3rd down. The guy can make the hardest throws into tight coverage in big moments. However, he can also make you think he is having some type of neurological issue and make the worst throws to wide open guys.

I'm going to be bold and say you guys will have the upperhand when it comes to our offenses being compared. Our OL is good this year, but yours is one of the best in the nation. However, I think our secondary gives our D a slight edge over yours.

@martyup -

I doubt we could. That was a phenomenal game your D had, but Oregon plays a different style of offense than Stanford and MSU. While it's much better than MSU's, we don't rely on speed so much as power. We're more of an offense that likes to pound a D, control time of possession, and take advantage of it in the 4th. As you saw with OSU, they were pretty tired when Langford broke out in the game-clinching run.

Also, we're not as great against the spread and duel threat QBs (Oregon). The teams who have scored the most points against us were duel threat and spread offenses. We've done pretty well containing pro-style offenses, but Stanford is better than any pro-style MSU has seen this year. That being said, we'll have our hands full with containing your RBs, but you may not do as well against our secondary.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - Spartandawg - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 11:34 AM)martyup link Wrote:I doubt if the Sparty D could hold Oregon scoreless for 3.5 quarters of football.

MSU has struggled with gimmick teams on occasion, but not against teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and Stanford.  Several analysts and coaches have claimed that MSU has the best defense they've seen in the last decade of college football.

Having 7 NFL players on defense (minimum) with a lot of experience allows MSU to do a lot of different things that most offenses have not seen.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - greenmachine - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 02:10 PM)Spartandawg link Wrote:MSU has struggled with gimmick teams on occasion, but not against teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and Stanford.  Several analysts and coaches have claimed that MSU has the best defense they've seen in the last decade of college football.

Having 7 NFL players on defense (minimum) with a lot of experience allows MSU to do a lot of different things that most offenses have not seen.

IMPOSTER

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - stupac2 - 12-09-2013

(12-09-2013, 02:10 PM)Spartandawg link Wrote:MSU has struggled with gimmick teams on occasion, but not against teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and Stanford.  Several analysts and coaches have claimed that MSU has the best defense they've seen in the last decade of college football.

Having 7 NFL players on defense (minimum) with a lot of experience allows MSU to do a lot of different things that most offenses have not seen.

Who has said this? Any analysis of MSU's defense that's more sophisticated than "OMG POINTS PER GAME" thinks they're not the best defense this year. FEI has them 3rd (behind VT and us), F+ has them 3rd behind VT and FSU (with us 5th), and ESPN's FPI has them 7th (and us 8th).

I don't think there's any case whatsoever to be made that MSU is the best defense of the past decade. It'd be tough enough to make the case that they're the best this year.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - Hulk01 - 12-09-2013

No reputable, credible, and sober football analyst would compare MSU's defense this year to Ohio State, USC or Virginia Tech '07, USC '08, Alabama '09, '11, and '12, LSU '11, or Notre Dame '12.

The two pro scouts whom I talk/drink with say that Dennard, Calhoun, Murphy, Skov, Carter, Richards, Reynolds, Anderson and Mauro all should go in the top 100-120 and that Lyons could crack the list if he continues his improvement.  That's a decisive edge to Cardinal defensive players, even if Bullough manages to squeeze into the third round (they have him 4th-5th round.)

"Big Ten defense don't get pressed this year," the one says.  Miller and White are the two best skill players in the conference and Mariota, Hundley, Sankey, Carey, Lee, Richardson, Cooks are at least their equals.  The QB guys says there at least eight Pac-12 quarterbacks (including Kessler, Goff, Hogan and Halliday) who play better and project higher than the second best QB in the Big Ten.  Tommy Rees could be the second best QB in that conference--dear God what does that tell us?

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - groverj3 - 12-09-2013

I wouldn't say our defense is overrated whatsoever, but of course I'm biased. However, the talking heads on ESPN have been saying it all year and are continually proven wrong. We gave up some yards to OSU, but that offense is nothing like Stanford. We've had some success over the years playing Wisconsin, although we didn't face them this season. From what I've seen this season I would give you guys the edge for overall D-line play, but I think we have the advantage in the secondary and maybe 2 out of 3 of the linebacker spots.

I worry about MSU stopping that crazy personnel package you run with tons of offensive linemen, since the middle of our D line is probably the weakest link on the defense.

Re: Michigan State defense overrated? - washingtonismoney - 12-09-2013

I wouldn't call MSU's defense overrated -- if ever the eye test meant a thing, it surely means something with the Spartans. But there may be a Galapagos Island effect with them: Big Ten offenses are, well, something. Even an offense like Stanford's poses some different problems than it's seen (Ohio State has a better offense, mind you, but it's so completely different that you can't generalize at all.)