Prediction Contest Against the Spread - Printable Version
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Prediction Contest Against the Spread - Bruce Wang - 12-16-2013
Out of curiosity I checked my predictions from our contest against the actual closing spread. Because of the vig, I think you have to go 7-6 against the spread to break even. I was only 8-5. Goes to show how efficient this market is. I've never followed a team this closely before and I was only a game better than breaking even. Guess I will not be moving to Vegas to make a living following Stanford football after all.
Here were the closing lines according to VegasInsider:
SJSU -24.5
Army -30.5
ASU -7
WSU -9.5
Wash -9
Utah -7.5
UCLA -4
OSU -4
Oregon 10.5
U$C -4
Kal -31.5
ND -16
Re: Prediction Contest Against the Spread - FarmBoy - 12-16-2013
Would you do better making bets earlier in the week against the opening spread? I wonder if people who follow one team have an advantage there and can recognize when the opening line is likely to change.
Re: Prediction Contest Against the Spread - Mick - 12-16-2013
(12-16-2013, 09:41 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Would you do better making bets earlier in the week against the opening spread? I wonder if people who follow one team have an advantage there and can recognize when the opening line is likely to change.
Actually, I'd be curious to know what effect the "late money" had on Stanford vs. the spread. In other words, if the spread started Stanford -7, then moved to Stanford -9 the day before the game, was Stanford more or less likely to cover?
Re: Prediction Contest Against the Spread - stupac2 - 12-16-2013
(12-16-2013, 04:32 PM)Mick link Wrote:Actually, I'd be curious to know what effect the "late money" had on Stanford vs. the spread. In other words, if the spread started Stanford -7, then moved to Stanford -9 the day before the game, was Stanford more or less likely to cover?
This got me curious, and after opening at Stanford -1.5, the line for the Rose has moved to Stanford -4.5. That's a lot of movement.
Re: Prediction Contest Against the Spread - Bruce Wang - 12-17-2013
(12-16-2013, 09:41 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Would you do better making bets earlier in the week against the opening spread? I wonder if people who follow one team have an advantage there and can recognize when the opening line is likely to change.
That's an interesting point. We do see the line move without any new information. Will have to remember to track that next year.