The CardBoard
WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... (/thread-6386.html)


WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - 76lsjumb - 12-16-2013

...on Saturday against Tennessee.

http://campl.us/GKNRAxW3urQ

I'll leave the detailed analysis of tonight's WBB game against New Mexico to the usual experts, but I've attached a photo I took of the scoreboard at the first media timeout in the SECOND half.  For reference, all the players then listed on the Stanford roster were also the game starters.

Notice anything...interesting?  ::)  That's right, exactly ONE of our starters had managed to score any points at all after 25 minutes.  Guess who?  The bench had obviously contributed some [with Erica McCall looking particularly good tonight, IMHO], but it wasn't until a couple of minutes after this photo that Amber Orrange finally put points on the board for any starter not named Ogwumike.

Also, despite sitting for a few minutes in the first half, you will also note that Chiney was still leading New Mexico when this photo was taken [and, indeed, she (personally) had never trailed in the game to that point].  Shortly thereafter NM hit a 3 to finally take the lead [over Chiney, not Stanford].  Chiney ultimately sat after posting 32 [which, I believe, tied her career high].

Somewhere, I assume, the NM coach is telling reporters in a post-game conference that "we knew Chiney was going to get her points, so we figured we would try to shut down everyone else..."  ;D 

Anyway, like I said, I'm not so optimistic about our chances against Tennessee if no other starter besides chiney has scored any points five minutes into the second half on Saturday...

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - BBGuru - 12-16-2013

I'm a little more hopeful, but not much.

The way I see it, it's either six of one thing, or half-dozen of another.

Meaning, in the games where Chiney scores between 20 and 30 points there is going to be a lot less scoring done by the other players. In the last game Chiney scored under 20, but everyone else pretty much contributed nicely, so there was more balance on the scoreboard. However, I believe there were some grumblings about not getting the ball in to Chiney more often, especially when she was down there working so hard to get open.

Tonight, it seemed that everyone made a very concerted effort to look to Chiney as the first option, and to get the ball into her with a lob pass as often as possible. Therefore, that meant less scoring opportunities for everyone else. Instead of looking to score, they are looking to pass the ball, and since Chiney is not creating shots for herself, they are doing a pretty good job of creating scoring opportunities for her instead of for themselves.

I have to believe this is the way Tara wants it. Chiney's catch-and-shoot basket right under the bucket is going to be a higher percentage shot than someone else's shot beyond the arc, or even in the paint. So, as a coach do you go with your sure-shot first and foremost, or do you allow others to begin creating shots for themselves, rather than settling for shooting only if they happen to find themselves open?

Personally, I think now that Chiney has reached her 2000 point mark Tara should start doing even more to prep the younger players for next year. She gave them good playing time today, but they could stand to be in the heat of things earlier in order to get that kind of experience and gain some confidence. Some of them still seem afraid to take chances for fear of being yanked out.

That said, I have reservations about Tennessee as well. I think we play far too timidly and hesitantly in the opening minutes. TN will be going to war from the very first seconds of the game. Can we keep up?

Will our team be encouraged to play aggressive defense against an offensive-minded team? Will they be rewarded for that aggressive defense by sitting on the bench? Will some players (who have figured out that if they foul they will come out of the game) step up defensively and stop allowing themselves to be scored on at will?

Is there a possibility that players will be permitted to see the entire floor and get the ball to the open man, even if it's not Chiney?

Will Chiney be allowed to kick out when she is triple-teamed?

Can we pass the ball a little quicker to take advantage of opportunities?

Can we complete a fast break by throwing the ball up to the runner instead of slowly dribbling to a spot until the defense is in place and set up?

So many questions, so little time! :-\

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - Mike - 12-17-2013

I thing the reason for the disproportionate funneling of feeds to Chiney tonight was because of who was defending her most of the night: a third-string freshman playing only her fourth college game, forced to play because of injuries to New Mexico's starting and back-up bigs. That's a sound plan on Stanford's part, considering the circumstances. Why would you not do so?

If a starting cornerback and his back-up both went out due to injuries, and a rookie third-string CB appearing in only his fourth NFL game replaced them, I know I'd have my QB immediately and continuously target the rookie until the cows came home. Plus, if something is working great, or if you have a great advantage in some area, you keep working it until they stop you. It's the same in any sport.

After Chiney got her 30, and we simultaneously stretched the lead out to 20-something, Tara rested her and began preparation for Tennessee. At the same time, Stanford's scoring and player activity returned to what you normally see.

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - 81alum - 12-17-2013

To keep the threads together I am moving my write-up here:

Chiney scored 32 and topped 2000 for her career tonight.  She could have scored many more had Tara left her in, but the blowout win was serious enough that it provided opportunities to give other players and lineups a final tuneup before Tennessee.

Chiney scored most of her points off of lobs.  I saw some of this against Gonzaga too, but it is now clear that lobbing the ball over the top of the defense to Chiney is a major weapon that we have been working on.  I have not seen Chiney taking a great many of those midrange jumpers she apparently worked on so hard in the off season--instead the strategy is getting it to her over the top.

Other notable story lines:

1. Tara started Sara James in the 3 slot, but Sara was 0-5 tonight and gave way to Taylor Greenfield and Bonnie Samuelson much of the game.  Taylor was 3-3 and Bonnie scored 8 points, so competition for the 3 slot is heating up significantly.  Taylor looked good to me tonight, but she may be limited in her time as she comes back from her injury.  Still, compared with her first two years, her offensive game looks much more confident and aggressive--and she has always been very sound defensively.  If she keeps playing this way she may realize the potential we always hoped she had and nail down the wing.  But that is still a ways off, and she has a lot of competition.

2. Ruef started and led the team with 10 rebounds, but once again was offensively challenged, just scoring 2 points on a nice 10 foot jumper in the 2nd half.  Kailee and Erica played significant time and Kailee continued to look very good offensively, while Erica also showed flashes of what we hope will become more consistent.  I have to believe that at some point Ruef will not be starting.

3. Guards continue to be up in the air.  Lili and Amber started, but Lili seems to have hit a bit of an offensive slump of late.  Alex Green, however, had some excellent minutes and scored 6 points, including a magnificent backdoor cut fed by Taylor.

4. We are seeing a weakness on our defensive boards.  We gave up 20 offensive rebounds and only grabbed 12 of our own.  Against an overmatched team like New Mexico that is not a good stat.  One can bet that Tennessee will be far more difficult to box out than New Mexico, and if we give them 20 offensive rebounds we will lose.  New Mexico actually took more shots than we did.

5. We had 21 assists tonight--not a surprise after feeding Chiney so much.  Also 12 blocks--also not a surprise considering our height advantage.

All things considered, I would like to have seen the team jell more prior to going in to the Tennessee game.  Taylor Greenfield and Alex Green did themselves a lot of good tonight, which almost leaves the lineup even more confused.

To all of the questions, all I can say is that the Tennessee game will answer at least some of them.  We will see if we can diversify our offense against a well balanced, elite group of athletes or whether we are still stuck on Chiney alone.  And we will see if Lili, Kailee, and Erica can successfully defend elite players without fouling.  And we will see if our improved success from three range is possible against a team that can defend the perimeter.  Those are the three keys not just to the Tennessee game, but to going on to a successful season.

I do think the players know this:

Quote:"When you think Tennessee, you think big, tall and rebounding," said the 6-3 McCall. "I'm going to focus on boxing out. I'm pretty pumped up."


Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - fullmetal - 12-17-2013

(12-17-2013, 04:28 AM)Mike link Wrote:If a starting cornerback and his back-up both went out due to injuries, and a rookie third-string CB appearing in only his fourth NFL game replaced them, I know I'd have my QB immediately and continuously target the rookie until the cows came home.

Tom Brady was going to agree with you, but...oh my, look how that turned out :)

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - WAcard - 12-17-2013

Hey it was good to see our vets out there, their minutes have been consumed by Kailee  and Erica Mcacall which is good and bad. Bad because as we saw in the Uconn game they may not be ready and good for next year. I agree on Ruef and Taylor just added a wrinkle, she is very good from the high post at distributing the ball, we may have another player at Ruefs spot which is also great news for next year. McCalls defense is still a problem and boxing out will hurt us in The Tenn game IMO. Also fouling, the same players are reaching in, Alex, Lili and Sara have issues with fouling.

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - Jskass - 12-17-2013

well, hopefully it will be more exciting than today's UConn-Duke romp!

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - M T - 12-18-2013

Geez, you'd think that this group would only be satisfied if every starter scored 20 points each (no one with as few as 19, of course), 7 rebounds each, and kept the opponents to 20 points, making no fouls and no turnovers, and no missed free throws.

New Mexico was simply outmatched & Stanford destroyed them.  Chiney had 23 points when she was pulled after 10:08 minutes of play.  At that point, Stanford was up 25-7.  While Stanford didn't have as overwhelming a defense after this, Stanford extended the lead to 36-14 before Chiney came back in 7 minutes later.  (While it might have been fun to see a Wilt Chamberlain game by Chiney, Tara would never allow it, and I agree with that.)

As for our offense, remove Chiney from the stats, and we shot 43%.  Not bad if you remove your star, and you play 13 players.    One can say that Lili & Sara & Mikaela weren't great at offense... But remember, NM only had 7 points at the 10 minute mark.  That to me is more telling than the 25 points of offense. 

We got 62% of the rebounds at our defensive end and 36% at the offensive end -- so we basically broke even on rebounding.  Not as good as we should be.  I happened to watch the rebounding and it was uneven but not as bad as some may think.  There were a lot of long NM rebounds when we had players in position for rebounds. 

Yes, it is easy for teams with an outstanding player to sit around and stare.  We've had that "problem", which most schools would die for. 

I've been a Stanford WBB fan for a very long time.  I've seen the best, and the promising.  I think this team has real promise, and I mean for this year.  The new players are coming along well.  We may not get up to the levels of offense we've had in the past, but our defense is among our best.

UConn was simply too much, and too early, for this team.  Tennessee will be a good test, but still early.  Even if we were to lose to Tennessee, I believe we'll have a long season.  We just might have a second chance against UConn in Nashville, and we may be the best chance to stop another UConn undefeated season, unless Louisville steps up. (ND is not on their regular season schedule.)


Tennessee beat Texas at home by 14.  Stanford beat Texas in that central Texas cavern by 9.  That's a wash.  Against Stanford, Texas started 1 Sr, 2 Jr, 2 So, while Stanford started 1 RSr, 1 Sr, 1 Jr, 2 Fr.  The Stanford set has probably improved more than Texas.
Tennessee has had 3 wins by 10 pts or less: 67-57 at Middle Tennessee (7-3), 87-76 vs Georgia Tech (7-2), 76-67 vs UVa (4-5).  Besides the 19-pt loss to UConn, Stanford's next weakest game was the 9 point win at Texas (then the 12 point win at Boston College).

And, of course, I note that while Stanford lost by 19 at UConn, UConn beat #2 Duke at Duke by 22.  In other away games, UConn beat #8 MD by 17 and #13 Penn State by 19.  Not a good scale, but it does help to put that loss in perspective.    (P.S., Don't forget Kal is playing UConn on Sunday morning 10AM on ESPN.  Set your DVR.)


Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - 81alum - 12-18-2013

(12-18-2013, 01:50 AM)MT link Wrote:Geez, you'd think that this group would only be satisfied if every starter scored 20 points each (no one with as few as 19, of course), 7 rebounds each, and kept the opponents to 20 points, making no fouls and no turnovers, and no missed free throws.
Very well said, MT.  I remain optimistic about this team and this year--more so than last year, simply because we have so much developing talent and we do not yet know how high it might rise. 

But besides the development of our frosh, the most important thing about the New Mexico game to me was the polish of Taylor Greenfield.  She does not look like she is rusty at all, and in fact looks much improved on offense than her 1st and 2nd years.  If she can continue to sustain that level of play, then the last piece of the puzzle falls into place.

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - WAcard - 12-18-2013

Is this a sounding board or what. Not sure what the Geez was all about but there is nobodies butt to kiss around here.

The best part this year IMO is having a lot to work with. In no way can I see anything set at this point which is a good problem to have. IMO those who know what they are supposed to be doing against each opponent is what I look for. Whether a player like MCCall or even Ruef as examples will make the right decisions at the right time will depend on success.

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - 76lsjumb - 12-18-2013

(12-18-2013, 07:44 AM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=MT link=topic=9175.msg78723#msg78723 date=1387356646]
Geez, you'd think that this group would only be satisfied if every starter scored 20 points each (no one with as few as 19, of course), 7 rebounds each, and kept the opponents to 20 points, making no fouls and no turnovers, and no missed free throws.
Very well said, MT.  I remain optimistic about this team and this year--more so than last year, simply because we have so much developing talent and we do not yet know how high it might rise. 

But besides the development of our frosh, the most important thing about the New Mexico game to me was the polish of Taylor Greenfield.  She does not look like she is rusty at all, and in fact looks much improved on offense than her 1st and 2nd years.  If she can continue to sustain that level of play, then the last piece of the puzzle falls into place.
[/quote]

Since I started this, I figured I'd take a chance on jumping back in...although I'm poised to jump under the desk if the shooting becomes too intense.  :)

On one level, my interest in Chiney having 30 points and no other starter having even 1 point five minutes into the second half of a game was based on the fact that, in 50+ years of watching Stanford basketball -- men's or women's -- I could not recall having seen anything close to a box score like that.

Mike then asked [paraphrasing] -- If it's working so well -- we were, after all, well out in front and, as indicated, NM apparently couldn't/wouldn't stop it -- why not keep doing it?  As far as winning this game -- or putting together a box score very likely to get a mention on ESPN -- was concerned, there's no reason at all to stop.

But that's not what spurred my initial post, as the header was meant to indicate.  It seems to me a reasonable argument can be made, in the warmup game to what is likely to be the 2d most important game of your regular season, relying heavily on a strategy that is almost certainly NOT going to work in that later game not only wastes opportunities to work on other, more viable strategies against real live opposition [rather than just against yourselves in practices] but also risks getting everyone too reliant on something that, when it doesn't work in the next game, leaves us with that old bugaboo [the "dribble around for 25 seconds and throw up a prayer" offense] or worse [forcing ill-advised passes to Chiney that get picked off before they even get close to her].  In short, the reason not to keep doing it was based on the "big picture," not just winning that game.

Indeed, I saw at least one story after the NM game suggesting that Tara hereself wasn't particularly thrilled with the other starters' lack of production. 

It seems to me that there is a lot of room on the spectrum between one player scoring all of the points and not being satisfied unless "every starter scored 20 points each."  Coincidentally, if you look Tennessee's box score from last night, they had five players in double figures [although none scored 20], including three of the starters [the other two starters had 8 and 7].  I, for one,  would be more than satisfied with a box score like that. 

Of course, if Chiney goes for 50 against Tennessee, none of the other starters scores a single point,... and we win, I'd be perfectly satisfied with that as well.  ;D

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - 81alum - 12-18-2013

I actually think that nearly everybody in this thread has made a useful point.

I agree that we do not want to be a one armed (a one-Chineyd?) gorilla like last year, and that New Mexico somewhat raised that concern.  But I think the Purdue game (5 players in double digits) convinced me that we can be balanced against quality opposition in a way we simply could not last year, and so I am not as worried about this problem as I was a year ago.

76's photo was a brilliant way, though, of reminding us of the central offensive problem that this team has had since Nneka left and Connecticut waxed us in our own house.  It can't hurt to remind our team of the need for offensive production from everyone not named Ogwumike.

Re: WBB - Not Sure this is Gonna Work... - CompSci87 - 12-18-2013

Even just going back one game to Gonzaga, the scoring was much more balanced there. Chiney had 19, with lots of others scoring. So I wouldn't get worried that the rest of the team will start standing around and watching Chiney, etc., just based on one game.