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Recruiting evaluation - BostonCard - 02-05-2014

Now that the recruiting cycle is in the books, I wanted to see how our recruiting has filled our needs.  I like to think of recruiting as a series of overlapping two-year cycles.  Especially for Stanford, there is too much year-to-year variability between recruiting classes and class sizes to be useful, and in any given class, you will have some people redshirt and some people playing as true freshman.  Moreover, any recruiting class will have its greatest impact in its third to fifth years, when guys are juniors and seniors.  So, it makes sense to consider this class jointly with last years (and again in a year with the class of 2015).  I also like to consider short term needs (places where we are likely to play freshmen and sophomores, versus longer term needs).  So without further ado, here are my thoughts (stars are based on scout, but they should only be considered a loose guideline).  Grades are based on how well our recruits fit our current and future needs.

QB: Ryan Burns ***/Keller Chryst ****: A
Short term, we have Kevin Hogan for at least another year, probably two, and Evan Crower can continue to back him up.  Longer term we are set with Burns and/or Chryst, both of whom are very highly regarded.  Burns could conceivably pass Crower on the depth chart this spring; he certainly has the raw tools, it is just a question of whether he has the mental aspects of the game.  Remember he did not play in a passing offense in high school.  Chryst is our most mentally prepared QB since Andrew Luck (helps that his dad is a QB coach).  You never know how these things turn out (both Nottingham and Nunes were 4* QB's out of high school and neither really panned out for us), but it would take a series of disappointing events for us not to be in great shape at QB for the next four to five years.

RB: Christian McCaffrey ****/Isaiah Brandt-Sims: A-
McCaffrey is considered a stud; Brandt-Sims elicited a little bit of an eye raise by Hulk, whose evaluations are pretty good.  Short term, we have a lot of returning running backs, but not a lot of carries between them, as Gaffney gobbled up PT last year, and our starter (Gaffney) and top back-up (Wilkerson) both are graduating.  Still, we have a lot of highly regarded players (Wright, Young, and of course, Barry J Sanders, not to mention Ricky Seale). So, there is a possibility that McCaffrey could impress and play right away, but it seems almost certain that one, and perhaps both running backs will redshirt this year and one of them will back-up Sanders (presumably) when Wright and Young graduate after this year.  Longer term, it is good that we took two RB's this year, because after this coming season, it will be Barry J Sanders (senior), McCaffrey, and Brandt-Sims.  I suspect we will still need to take one RB next year.

[EDIT: Forgot One, sorry]
FB: Daniel Marx ***: A/B
Fullback is a tough position to evaluate because we recruit very few (we have had exactly two starting fullbacks since the 2007 season, Marecic and Hewitt), and yet it is a key position to our offense.  That's why I am giving it a broad range.  Marx could be awesome (Owen Marecic) or he might not pan out.  I would bet on him being awesome, but you never know.  The bottom line is that we need a fullback and we got a fullback.  Short term, we are fine; despite Hewitt's graduation, we still have Ward (1 more year) and Skov (2 years, I think).  So, we should probably be fine for the next five years, barring injury or disappointment from Marx.

WR: Francis Owusu ****/Taijuan Thomas ** [subject to Thomas possibly going to CB]: B+
We like Owusu a lot, enough to play him as a true freshman (though sparingly) an Thomas is fast.  Short term, we have a ton of returning talent at WR, so not signing anyone this year is not a problem at all.  Basically, all our top receivers from last year (Montgomery, Rector, Cajuste, Whitfield) will be back, and only Montgomery will be in his last year of eligibility.  Longer term, we will certainly need to sign a wide receiver, probably two, next year, as the 2016 season will feature a bunch of guys likely in their final year of eligibility (Rector, Whitfield, Owusu).  The long-term needs will be somewhat alleviated if Thomas thrives and stays at wide receiver.  Fortunately, 2015 is supposed to be a good year for west coast wide receivers.

TE: Greg Taboada ***/Austin Hooper ***/Eric Cotton ***/Dalton Schultz ****: A
I considered giving this two-year stretch an A+ given the quality (Schultz top tight end in the country) and depth (four promising players), which will hopefully re-establish Stanford as Tight End U.  And after this last year, boy do we need it.  Expect a starter and a significant contributor (perhaps two) out of this set of four.  The only reason I didn't give it an A+ is that all three of last year's tight ends redshirted, and if there ever was a year that someone could have been a significant tight end contributor as a true freshman, it was this last year.  Nonetheless, we have a brobdingnagian need for the tight end position going forward, and the two-year class seems almost certain to put us in a good position for at least the next four years.

OL: David Bright ***/Thomas Oser ***/Brandon Fanaika *** (2012 signee coming back from Mormon Mission, so he will be entering with this year's class)/Casey Tucker *****/Reilly Gibbons ***/Austin Hall ***/Jesse Burkett ***/: A
OK, so not quite the 2012 class (who looks destined to start at every position of the offensive line in 2015), but still, we got quality and depth.  We are more than fine in the short term (next two years, as the 2012 class could, barring injury, potentially start together for over 25 games unless Peat goes pro after this coming season), though I suspect some of these guys will see action as backups or in the Ogre/Elephant etc. formations, and with 7 offensive linemen signed over the last two years, we should be fine over the next four to five years.  Stanford has been on a phenomenal run of having the strongest offensive lines in the Pac-12 (probably the top or one of the top two lines for 6 years running), and we should continue our run of dominance for the forceable future.  We will need a couple linemen next year, but OL is a position we need to recruit every year.

[Continued with the defense in the next post].

BC

Re: Recruiting evaluation - doublespiral - 02-05-2014

(02-05-2014, 02:39 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:dominance for the forceable future

Love this. (Even though I think it was unintentional.)

Looking forward to the report on the D.

The defense - BostonCard - 02-05-2014

DL: Mike Tyler ***/Solomon Thomas *****/Harrison Phillips ***/Lane Veach *** B-

Tempting to give it a C because of the lack of interior defensive linemen, but somehow we always manage to fill the spot.  Even though getting a prototypical space-eating 3-4 defensive tackle is a twice a decade phenomenon, we often make due, so I'm not going to penalize the 2-year stint too much for it, especially given the quality and depth we have at the ends.  Obviously Solomon Thomas is a stud; perhaps the get of the class.  In the short term, we should be OK.  We lose Mauro and Gardner (although we've already coped with the loss of Gardner pre-Oregon), so we have two returning starters (Anderson and Parry), and experience (Leuders)  plus highly regarded players (Shittu, Watkins, Kaumatule, and Nwafor) to step into the void.  Longer term, we should be ok at DE, but it would be nice to get a DT next year, especially if Nwafor has any sort of recurrent injury problems.


LB: Kevin Palma ****/Peter Kalambayi ****/Joeiy Alfieri ****/Bobby Okereke ****/Jordan Perez *** A
As a group, our linebacking corps and offensive linemen are the strongest units in the two-cycle recruiting class (and this doesn't even include Sean Barton, who is on a mission and will be a part of next year's class, which already has verbals from two four star linebackers!).  Tempting to give the unit an A+.  This is good, because we fare losing Skov, Murphy, and Lancaster this year, though we have some good experienced returning talent (Tarpley, Anderson, Vaughters) and some highly regarded players from 2012 (Noor Davis and Blake Martinez).  Still, I expect some of the guys we signed last year to contribute this year, with the possibility of a starter coming from Palma and Kalambayi.  Longer term, we look pretty set, especially since the class of 2015 is off to a hell of a start at the position.

S: Brandon Simmons ****/Denzel Franklin *** B+
Another place where we need help quickly, and we got two great safety prospects this year.  Simmons would be my bet for player most likely to burn a redshirt, since Safety is a position of acute need, with Reynolds and Carrington gone, and Madhu medically retired.  Much will depend on whether Lyons moves (back) to safety or if Lloyd develops the skills he needs to succeed there.  Any way you cut it, we will be inexperienced at the free safety position.  Longer term, we got two safeties over the last three years, three if you throw in Lloyd (we got three nominal safeties in 2012, but Hoffpauir seems to have moved to nickel back, Carter is a corner, and Madhu was lost to injury).  So, safety will be a position of need again next year.

CB: Alijah Holder ***/Terrence Alexander ***/Alameen Murphy *** [possibly Taijuan Thomas ** as well if he moves from WR] A-
A fairly strong two-year haul at a position that has been traditionally tough for us to recruit (perhaps a little less so going forward if Richard Sherman continues to be a stud NFL CB).  If Lyons stays at CB, we are fine there in the short term; otherwise these guys may be pressed for action, at least as backups.  We do have Ronnie Harris as a potential starter if Lyons moves to Safety.  Longer term, these guys could anchor an awesome backfield, and we ought to be ok. It would be nice to have another CB next year, because of how unreliable the CB pipeline is for us.  Some years we have two or three outstanding prospects at once; then we'll go three years without any significant CB.

BC

Re: Recruiting evaluation - BostonCard - 02-05-2014

(02-05-2014, 03:57 PM)doublespiral link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=9515.msg83292#msg83292 date=1391636368]dominance for the forceable future

Love this. (Even though I think it was unintentional.)

Looking forward to the report on the D.
[/quote]

Ha ha.  No, not intentional.  But it was great CowboyIndian bait.

BC

Special Teams - BostonCard - 02-05-2014

K: Hayden Lekacz A/B
For the same reason that FB is graded with a range (numbers are too small, and an injury or misjudgment can mean the difference between being in a position of strength and being in a position of weakness.  We have Williamson for another year, and Ukropenia has proven able when Williamson was injured and has three more years of eligibility, so no acute need.  But Lekacz has a strong leg, and is walking on, so you take these guys whenever you can get them.  If all goes well, we should be set at kicker for another five years.

P: --- Incomplete
We have Ben Rhyne at punter for one more year and Ukropenia could be our punter after that. With no other guys in this two-year class, that leaves us needing a punter next year.  Along with DT, P is the only position we really whiffed on.

LS: C. J. Keller A/B
No reason to believe that Keller won't be an awesome long snapper.  The position is an afterthought in many places; to get a recruited walk-on who merits a write-up by the recruiting services (a brief one, to be sure) means the kid can play.  WE don't have an acute need; Reed Miller should have the position for the next two years.  But long snapping is one of those things that you don't want to have to worry about, and we shouldn't.

Conclusions - BostonCard - 02-05-2014

I echo Hulk's appraisal that this is not just a very strong recruiting class (at or near the top of the Pac-12), but that when paired with last year's smaller class is an almost exquisitely balanced class.  We basically addressed virtually every position of need, particularly tight end and safety where the need is most acute.  Obviously lots can happen between now and a year from now (injuries, early departures, etc.), but we head into next year's class with almost no urgent needs.  We will be recruiting mostly for quality and long-term needs.  Linebacker and Offensive line are, again, some of the strongest units; our two-year class in TE looks sweet, and we should be in excellent shape at QB. To give you an idea, Scout ranks the top 15 teams by unit.  Stanford ranks:

#9 at QB
#7 at RB/FB
#12 at OL
#10 at LB
#11 at DB

Only WR (where we didn't recruit anyone this year) and DL were positions where we didn't rank in the top-15 this year.

If there are a couple of spots where I'd like to know recruits are coming down the pipe, it is DT (always a need at Stanford).  Second on the level of importance is WR, where we are great in the short term, but have nobody signed in this year's class, as well as safety.

BC

Re: Recruiting evaluation - Nan3cy - 02-05-2014

Great stuff BC. Thanks!

(You haven't retired, have you? I'm trying to figure out how you have the time to go into this depth of analysis.)

Re: The defense - StannyBoy - 02-05-2014

(02-05-2014, 04:19 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:DL: Mike Tyler ***/Solomon Thomas *****/Harrison Phillips ***/Lane Veach *** B-

Tempting to give it a C because of the lack of interior defensive linemen, but somehow we always manage to fill the spot.  Even though getting a prototypical space-eating 3-4 defensive tackle is a twice a decade phenomenon, we often make due, so I'm not going to penalize the 2-year stint too much for it, especially given the quality and depth we have at the ends.  Obviously Solomon Thomas is a stud; perhaps the get of the class.  In the short term, we should be OK.  We lose Mauro and Gardner (although we've already coped with the loss of Gardner pre-Oregon), so we have two returning starters (Anderson and Parry), and experience (Leuders)  plus highly regarded players (Shittu, Watkins, Kaumatule, and Nwafor) to step into the void.  Longer term, we should be ok at DE, but it would be nice to get a DT next year, especially if Nwafor has any sort of recurrent injury problems.

Veach and Tyler are LBs in our D.

Re: Recruiting evaluation - BostonCard - 02-06-2014

We will see.  Leuders was also a LB in our defense, until he was moved to DE.  We have a lot of linebackers and not a lot of defensive linemen, so my guess is they will probably bulk up and play on the defensive line.

BC

Re: Recruiting evaluation - StannyBoy - 02-06-2014

(02-06-2014, 12:01 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:We will see.  Leuders was also a LB in our defense, until he was moved to DE.  We have a lot of linebackers and not a lot of defensive linemen, so my guess is they will probably bulk up and play on the defensive line.

BC

I see your point but Veach and Tyler strike me as having skinnier frames. They remind me of Kevin Anderson who was never going to be able to bulk up to play DE. Lueders didn't come in at 230ish, was around 250 from what I remember. I actually wanted him moved to DE 2 years ago. I expect him to be able to put on some good weight before next season.

And we actually have more d-line guys than OLBs. We're down to Kalambayi, Anderson, Vaughters, Tyler, and maybe Palma if he moves outside. Only 2 have playing experience. You can add in Veach but he's obviously redshirting and coming off knee surgery. And I don't see Alfieri, Okereke, and Perez playing outside. Perez looks closer to a safety than a 3-4 OLB.





Re: Recruiting evaluation - AthleticsDynasty - 02-06-2014

Yeah Veach and Tyler are OLBers all the way.

While I like McCaffery a lot. As of now I have to give the RB grade a D, I thought we had a very clear need for size at the position, I think the coaches did too we recruited Freeman and Downs. But it seemed like after they went else where we didn't have a real backup plan. Of course this could all change if someone switches positions.

Re: Recruiting evaluation - Stymie - 02-06-2014

I personally think that not signing a Power right/Power left HB a la Tyler, Anthony, Stepfan and Toby might be a blessing in disguise.  What it will force us to do is play with what we will bring to the dance in the Fall which will be Young, Sanders, McCaffrey (and maybe Brandt-Sims) who are all anti-Power backs with tremendous skills and individuality, who could open up defenses 5-15 yards down the field rather than the "3-5 yards and a cloud of dust" that was our bread and butter last year.  Wright and Seale can continue to play supporting roles, and Marx--if he is as good as some of his highlight films seem to show--could be the first immediate star of this class.

Plus, we have a young and talented 4-some of tight ends who could complement the skill players in the backfield and wide receiver spots and bring back Stanford's "Tight End U" strength.  And, finally, we have so much young depth of talent on our offensive line who are not only big and strong, but also quick and intelligent.  What better weapon could we have to support an offense built around the balance of strength and explosiveness we will have from our "skill" players.

Yes, we may have to do some work to wean ourselves off of Power Right/Power Left/Wildcat, but we managed last year to shift the airborne part of out offense from the tight ends to the wide receivers, and we had a team which was as good (perhaps even arguably better) than any one of the still nascent Shaw/Harbaugh Era.

All IMVHO.

Re: Recruiting evaluation - slide - 02-06-2014

good thread BC.  I think though we may be suffering through grade inflation not seen this far from Cambridge Square other than the greater Lake Wobegon area.  :)

on weaknesses in the 2 year cycle, Stymie picked up on the absence of a power back, unless an Alfieri type switches position.  I don't think Marx has the speed beyond a short yardage specialist at TB.  WR is hard to give an A with one recruit in 2 classes even as much as we like Owusu.  interior DL is a concern as we didn't land a DT/NG type again unless Fanaika moves over from OL.  Simmons (great tape and looks to be a hitter in the Delano mold) and Franklin double our recruited scholarship safeties, but 2 safeties over 2 cycles after a 0 cycle in '12 keeps us on the thinner side.  Lloyd's switch will help a lot, but we might see another player move.

The soft spot in your defensive analysis - Redrum - 02-06-2014

And possibly in our DLine itself:

"plus highly regarded players (Shittu, Watkins, Kaumatule, and Nwafor) to step into the void. "

Of that group, Shittu and Nwafor have drawn comment for their disappearance.  Nwafor was injured, Shittu played and did not distinguish himself as a future star based on his play.  Watkins is never mentioned in the mix. Dunno why.  Only Kaumatule elicited any real optimism, but maybe that was just hope.  Hard to know, the only way we get to know and the only way they get a fair test is to play regularly.  But they might come up short in a fair test.  We have definitely been spoiled by the last three years.



Re: Recruiting evaluation - Renaissance Man - 02-06-2014

With all of the mentions of Marx and the running game, Ward seems to be overlooked.  I honestly thought that he was the best blocking fullback that I saw in the NCAA last year, and I kept expecting to see Hewitt spend more time in the slot tight end position where Ertz spent so much time, improving the offense at two positions (beings we had basically taken the fullback out of the passing game).

Some tweaks and projected needs for 2015 - Hulk01 - 02-06-2014

QB:  A without doubt
RB:  No power back and our offense revolves around one.  Plus every team must have a short yardage and goal line back.  But that could be Marx. 
FB:  Marx’s upside is All American.
WR:  Owusu and Thomas over a two-years is acceptable only because of the crowd of WRs just ahead of them.  brobdingnagian focus in this upcoming class where I really like Kirk, Sanders, and the prodigy Trent Irwin.
TE:  Exceptional.  We landed Najvar, Fleener, Ertz, and Toilolo over two years.  Schultz, Hooper, Cotton, and Taboada are unlikely to equal them but whoever will?
OL:  Excellent.  Missing an obvious Blind Side ace but terrific interior triangle group plus Tucker and Gibbons on the right edge.
Overall offense:  Could be great.  Almost cannot be average.

DL:  Two years without a nose tackle--worrisome.  Veach and Tyler go to OLB and leaves us with just Phillips and Solomon T in these two classes.  The staff was worried enough to push for Lealao, who might never play, and the kid from Compton who looks so raw and worrisome.  The staff feels anxious here now.  We need at least four more DLs.
LB:  Good God.  Kalambayi, Palma, Alfieri, Okereke, Veach, and Perez? 
CB:  A true cover corner in Alexander and hitters and edge sealers.  Great by Stanford standards, B by USC and UCLA standards.
S:  Too thin.  Simmons will be nearly ready when he arrives but might notl approach Jordan Richards. But he will be sounder than Reynolds.  Franklin looks puzzling. 
Overall defense: This class sounds and feels bonded and that’s worth points on defense.  Great tacklers in the group, particularly the DBs.  Great leaders (Phillips, Simmons, Aflieri).  Sean Barton can fill the hole at safety.

Our five needs for 2015.
A nose tackle.  Badly.
Three additional DLs.  Badly.
A power back.  Definitely.  Warren?
A possession receiver.  Think Welker.  Trent Irwin?
A wall left tackle.


Re: Recruiting evaluation - yvonne - 02-06-2014

From now on, Hulk, you are my No. 1 recruiting source!

Who is this "kid from Compton"? - Redrum - 02-06-2014

Somebody we went after but then lost to another school  or to academics?

Re: Recruiting evaluation - LuckE2Bhere - 02-06-2014

I assume he was referring to Uriah Leiataua (who went to Richard Sherman's HS), and ultimately "committed" (for what that's worth with a kid who is going on an LDS mission) to BYU.

Re: Who is this "kid from Compton"? - CowboyIndian - 02-06-2014

(02-06-2014, 10:15 AM)Redrum link Wrote:Somebody we went after but then lost to another school  or to academics?

I think it's the kid who chose BYU.