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Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - OutsiderFan - 02-08-2014

There are certain programs that simply by virtue of who they are and what they are perceived to be, will attract a steady stream of elite talent.  In the PAC-12, USC football has long been a program that could have a monkey for its head coach and still land a steady stream of elite talent every year just by virtue of it having the brand and tradition it has.

To put a finer point on this, a USC offer to a coveted recruit has long been considered an "uh oh" moment for fans of opposing teams because so many top talents have that fulcrum of evil as their program of choice.  In such cases fans often fear or even resign themselves to the fact a recruit won't be coming to their school when the Trojans become an option.

My question is has Stanford football now reached this level?  Has Stanford's perceived value now become so high that we can now expect Stanford to land a healthy haul of very good talent in each class just because Stanford is Stanford?  And has Stanford reached the point where a Stanford offer puts fear into fans of programs who covet Stanford-offered recruits?

If it hasn't, Stanford is as close to having that stature as is possible without being there yet.  Perhaps it will take one more 10 win regular season in a row?  Or maybe it will take David Shaw leaving and another coach continuing to win 10+ games?

In any case, my sense is at least with David Shaw at the helm, Stanford football is in this "we don't recruit so much as draft" position that is reserved for only the most elite of programs.  The next thing that will be fascinating to see is if there is an uptick in the size of the eligible pool of Stanford-admittable elite football talent due to the success Stanford has had since every high school and younger football player knows nothing but Stanford success.

The one factor that could actually hurt Stanford is parents of academically-oriented kids may prohibit their boys to play football (due to the rising concern about concussions), in larger numbers than parents just wanting their kids to be eligible to go to a football factory.  We'll have to see.

Aside from this potential reality, in the immediate present, based on the reactions 2015 recruits and their parents, and even media are having to Stanford offers, it does seem Stanford is at least for now at the elite recruiting level reserved for only the top five or so programs in the country.  Do others agree or have I been reading too many Hulk posts? :)

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - Hulk01 - 02-08-2014

I am often accused of optimism about our recruiting, yet look at our on-field and recruiting success over the last five years.  Despite the most restrictive standards in football (stiffer than Harvard's, who has taken guys we have refused), our players are ranked just behind those for Florida State and Alabama now. 

In terms of our sought:got ratio, only Alabama surpasses us. 

We get the best post-offer verbatims.

And as recruits now stress, we have a combination so unique that unique doesn't serve well here: Ivy academics, BCS bowl football, unsurpassed climate, the most diverse and talented students anywhere, access to San Franciso/Tahoe/Half Moon Bay/tne mountains, the Silicon Valley trail--it goes on.  Notre Dame?  A fellow who sent a daughter there laughed when someone made that comparison Thursday night.

We are rolling. 

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - Hurlburt88 - 02-08-2014

I am not sure where the tipping point is/was--could argue as far back as 2012--but I believe we are in a place where our brand equity commands top 25 classes every year despite our requirements.  I also believe that the coaching staff can continue to "overachieve" versus recruiting rankings for a variety of reasons, leading to expectations of top 10 finished consistently into the future.  There is good reason to FEAR THE TREE!

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - zedcom - 02-08-2014

Good discussion topic. I'm actually surprised that someone like Rick Reilly or Peter King hasn't done an in-depth report on the ascendancy of Stanford football. I think a great case could be made that the current value of a Stanford offer is arguably the highest of any program in the country when measured across a multitude of criteria (all the football measures - recent program success, player development, BCS games, strength of schedule, S&C program/staff, W-L records, game day crowd/experience -maybe not as high for us as others but still pretty darn good in my mind, etc.; all the academic measures -  quality of education, ethnic and talent diversity of students, height of the hurdles for gaining admission, university and departmant rankings, etc.; and all the post graduation measures - players placed in the NFL, value of the degree, initial salaries and future value of ex-players not in the NFL, value of the alumni network). I know this may come off as "elitest" but that was not my intention. I just think that a rational, logical evaluation would show that a Stanford offer could and maybe should be viewed as having the highest value in all of college football.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - 81alum - 02-08-2014

In answer to your question, I think the answer is no--if I understand the question. (No, we are not like SC that can sustain high levels of recruiting even when coached by a "monkey.")  If we replaced David Shaw with the wrong kind of coach, our recruiting would plummet. 

Our recruiting depends upon convincing elite scholar/athletes that they can have it both ways at Stanford--that they do not have to choose between academics and football.  No amount of success in football--several national championships in a row--would create the same kind of recruiting power it would at factories like SC, given the unique admissions requirements here.  More football success can't attract better recruits beyond a certain point, since there is already a very limited pool who can make it through admissions, and we may be coming close to maximizing our attraction within that pool. 

There are very, very few potential coaches who could possibly be better at making the scholar/athlete case than David Shaw--an alum of the program himself, still youthful, articulate.  And more important than all those symbols is the fact that he really believes in the academic mission of the university.  Sounding sincere is a lot easier when you actually are sincere. 

I think for the long run Shaw is a better recruiter for Stanford than Harbaugh could be.  He is a better recruiter than Walsh I could be.  The only way Stanford could sustain this level of recruiting without Shaw would be to find someone a lot like Shaw.  How many youthful alums of our football program, who could serve as role model to our young men,  and who have coached in the NFL, are there floating around out there?  Oh, and once you find one, make sure he actually knows how to coach, too, and then verify that he would be happy with the salary that we can pay.  Perhaps we can find another, but it will be difficult, and hence my reluctance to subscribe to the notion that Stanford can ever become a Football U where the tradition of the program breeds future success indefinitely.

However, I think we have a very special situation right now and should enjoy it while it lasts.  And of course we must try to find someone to sustain it when the time comes.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - rudruff - 02-08-2014

The only consistent negative I see (you have to go to other boards to find them, but some are hilarious) is the idea that these kids value some sort of hero worship or elevated status if they go somewhere else. That Stanford's student body or fan base won't value players the way "we" will.

I actually agree with this and think it helps Shaw's message. We don't expect our players greatest achievement to be playing football for Stanford, but to take advantage of the opportunity to do more.



Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - terry - 02-08-2014

I think Stanford is in a very good position right now. Stanford's "top academics, top football" brand is getting a lot of traction nationally. It's very satisfying.

I don't think we are in a position where the coaches can say "Stanford recruits itself," then just sit back and pick among the multitudes of elite players who are lining up to sign an LOI. I think the coaches need to continue to work hard to fill each recruiting class. Stanford is not the easy path for recruits. They must work hard in school, take AP and honors classes, take and re-take the SAT, complete the application, get the recommendations, keep their grades up as seniors, etc. No other school asks them to do that. It's much easier for recruits to take a less demanding path. We will always have to push recruits to take the steps needed to qualify them for Stanford.

I think Stanford's academic advantage isn't understood or appreciated by a lot of recruits. Some recruits aren't looking for the best academic school; rather, they're looking for a "good enough" academic school. Other recruits aren't sophisticated enough to understand that Stanford really is different academically from our competitors.

I think Stanford's success still is fragile. We saw the program drop off the cliff not so long ago. I don't think we are at a point where it couldn't happen again. We need the right coaches, the right work ethic, the right administrative support, and the right players to keep this thing going.



Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - Mick - 02-08-2014

(02-08-2014, 06:10 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:I am often accused of optimism about our recruiting, yet look at our on-field and recruiting success over the last five years.  Despite the most restrictive standards in football (stiffer than Harvard's, who has taken guys we have refused), our players are ranked just behind those for Florida State and Alabama now. 

Hulk, good comments, and I agree with virtually all of it.  One small nit: I would be careful about a broad-based assertion that Stanford's standards are across-the-board stiffer than the Ivies.

The Ivies have to adhere to an Academic Index for their players.  The floor used to be 171, last year it was raised to 176.  The rough calculation is 1/3 gpa (unweighted average x 40), 1/3 SAT I score, and 1/3 SAT II score.  It used to include class rank, but very few high schools include class rank any more, but the target was top 4% of the high school's class, and top 10% was considered the bare minimum.  The typical targeted average is an AI of about 210, meaning a 2100 SAT and a 3.5 gpa unweighted.

The mean AI of the athletes must fall within one standard deviation of all athletes on campus.  In practical terms, it means that one or two athletes will get in at the bare minimum level, but they will be the most-recruited athlete at that school's football program.  Those would be the 3.0 gpa/1650 SATs.  The bulk of the athletes will have much tougher academic standards.  So if the athlete is at a level which attracts Stanford's attention, he will almost assuredly be Harvard's top target rather than a typical recruit.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - socalstanfan1 - 02-08-2014

Clearly. Stanford football recruiting is at an all-time high right now. Consistent success on the field, combined with all the other factors, make it so. However, due to the nature of the academic requirements, I think Stanford will never be quite the recruiting juggernaut of the football factories.

Gaining admission to Stanford requires a long-term commitment by both the coaches and the player being recruited. If a player blossoms unexpectedly in his senior year, USC, Texas, Florida, et al, can go right after him, provided he has at least passable academic skills. Most players who haven't been considering Stanford are not going to be in position to suddenly get serious in the classroom and turn things around. Furthermore, many of the top players would elect NOT to attend Stanford, due to the expectations that they actually do work in the classroom. So our pool of players will always remain more limited. Frankly, USC can recruit every Stanford target, but there will always be a large number of USC targets that Stanford cannot touch

Now, when Stanford DOES target a player, then, yes, I would say we often have an advantage

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - stanfan95118 - 02-08-2014

I'll just echo a point made previously: it's all about the available pool of elite talent. Sure, I think Stanford is indeed at a high point with regard to attracting such elite talent, but we cannot land "a steady stream of elite talent" year after year if the admittable talent is simply not there. Loot at the situation at NT, for example.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - washingtonismoney - 02-08-2014

We still have a while to go before peak Stanford recruiting. Here's an ESPN insider article: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/recruiting/football/story/_/id/10414440/stanford-cardinal-programs-biggest-recent-recruiting-spikes-college-football/refresh/true

This guy calculates Stanford's three-year recruiting average at 21. I think, as long as we have good success, Shaw should be able to pull that average up. If anything, that stat understates things -- it doesn't count the 2010 and 2011 classes, which were relatively underrecruited.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - BostonCard - 02-09-2014

Enjoy this ride because all it would take is a lazy recruiter or a dean of  admissions that doesn't get athletics or a couple of losing seasons, and all the work Harbaugh and Shaw have put into get us into a top recruiting destination will be lost.  Stanford might recruit itself, but never to the extent that it will get top athletes to take the SAT multiple times, take AP classes, and spend time and effort to complete the application.  For that it takes a dedicated staff who can sell the recruit the idea that all that effort (for a somewhat uncertain payout) is worth it.  Moreover, while Stanford is well known in Pac-12 country, and about as well known as anybody outside the state, you still need someone who can sell kids from the south and midwest the idea that it is worth traveling that many miles away from home (and remember, Solomon Thomas is the best recruit we have EVER gotten out of Texas, and we STILL have trouble plucking kids out of the midwest when going up against Michigan, tOSU, and Notre Dame.

What I am trying to say is that while our recent success has made the job of David Shaw and company easier, recruiting at Stanford will always require a dedicated coach, good communications with the admissions department, and still, a fair bit of luck (that there the guys we need in positions we need have the athleticism and academics -- to wit, we've gone two years without a DT).  It is getting easier, but don't take it for granted.

I do think that we are at a position where if you have an academically oriented kid, and we get them in and visiting, we will win that battle 90+% of the time.  So yeah, don't bet against Stanford in a three-hat race.

BC

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - stupac2 - 02-09-2014

(02-08-2014, 09:43 AM)81alum link Wrote:How many youthful alums of our football program, who could serve as role model to our young men,  and who have coached in the NFL, are there floating around out there?  Oh, and once you find one, make sure he actually knows how to coach, too, and then verify that he would be happy with the salary that we can pay.

Anyone else get the feeling that we're trying to turn Prichard into this? His rise has been pretty meteoric so far.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - CornFed - 02-09-2014

(02-09-2014, 02:52 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:(and remember, Solomon Thomas is the best recruit we have EVER gotten out of Texas

I don't know much more about Thomas than the comments I have read here, but BC is this really your opinion?  I would have thought that this title would have gone to Andrew Luck hands down, particularly before we have any college results from Thomas.  Heck, for that matter I would need to learn a lot more about Thomas before I would put him ahead of Stephan Taylor. 

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - DC - 02-09-2014

Speaking of Thomas, he is listed as 6-3 and in the range of 255 - 263 lbs.  To play DE at the college level, he'll have to put on some more weight.  His ratings and offer list give him credit for being able to bulk up after he hits campus.  If he becomes the "Andrew Luck" of DEs, we'll all be thrilled - we'll have to follow his development path for the full answer.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - washingtonismoney - 02-09-2014

(02-09-2014, 09:15 AM)CornFed link Wrote:I don't know much more about Thomas than the comments I have read here, but BC is this really your opinion?  I would have thought that this title would have gone to Andrew Luck hands down, ...

By recruiting rankings -- which I assume what BC's talking about --  he's correct. Using rivals rankings of highly-rated Texans @ Stanford:

Solomon Thomas (#3 DE, #37 overall)
Luck (#4 QB, #68 overall)
Stepfan (#20 RB, #220 overall)
Montgomery (#30 WR, NR overall)

Obviously recruiting rankings are not, exactly, a perfect substitute for college performance, so we'll see how good Thomas turns out to be. Thomas is a nice milestone, in that he's the first Texan with a Texas offer to opt for Stanford in ages.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - JohnR34231 - 02-09-2014

One of the problems, of course, is when you start competing for the 5 star types (the types that put you in the top ten of the recruiting rankings), academics become less of an advantage because the kids see themselves in the NFL in 3-4 years anyway. In some cases, they may be a disadvantage because the kids see them as too much of a diversion from football.
The Solomon Thomases and Andrew Lucks of this world are definitely in the minority; top ranked kids for whom academics are an extremely high priority.

P.S. Amusing (I guess) anecdote

I know one of the local HS coaches here in Tallahassee because he and my son played HS football together. He had a star player whom Stanford was interested in but the interest was not reciprocated. One of the reasons? Stanford is "too academic".
The kid apparently is an honors student, too.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - socalstanfan1 - 02-09-2014

(02-09-2014, 09:50 AM)JPRI link Wrote:One of the problems, of course, is when you start competing for the 5 star types (the types that put you in the top ten of the recruiting rankings), academics become less of an advantage because the kids see themselves in the NFL in 3-4 years anyway. In some cases, they may be a disadvantage because the kids see them as too much of a diversion from football.
The Solomon Thomases and Andrew Lucks of this world are definitely in the minority; top ranked kids for whom academics are an extremely high priority.

I think we run into this issue with recruits who are ranked lower than 5-stars.  I'm sure a lot of 3- and 4-star recruits are filled with a certain belief that they are under-rated by the services, and that they will prove everybody wrong. And college coaches who are recruiting them might not do too much to convince them otherwise.  It isn't until they actually step foot onto a college practice field and realize that they may not even make the two-deep chart on their own team that they begin to realize how distant that dream is.  It is a special young athlete, likely with exceptional parents, who combines exceptional athleticism, excellent academics, and a realistic understanding of the Big Picture.  There's your Stanford target.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - terry - 02-09-2014

How highly ranked were Damon Dunn and Anthony Bookman? They were from Texas.

Re: Has Stanford reached the recruiting tipping point? - scorecard - 02-09-2014

(02-09-2014, 09:50 AM)JPRI link Wrote:One of the problems, of course, is when you start competing for the 5 star types (the types that put you in the top ten of the recruiting rankings), academics become less of an advantage because the kids see themselves in the NFL in 3-4 years anyway. In some cases, they may be a disadvantage because the kids see them as too much of a diversion from football.
The Solomon Thomases and Andrew Lucks of this world are definitely in the minority; top ranked kids for whom academics are an extremely high priority.

This is exactly the problem that has killed Stanford's hopes in college basketball.  We will almost never get an absolute game changer because they never stay for more than 1 year in most cases, so the Stanford degree means less of a draw.  The fact that we are even getting a guy like Reid Travis is a minor miracle to me.


(02-09-2014, 09:28 AM)DC link Wrote:Speaking of Thomas, he is listed as 6-3 and in the range of 255 - 263 lbs.  To play DE at the college level, he'll have to put on some more weight.

Is this really true?  It is true that our DE's lately have been larger.  But there are many DE's in college that are not.  I've attached a table of the top 10 DE prospects for the NFL draft per ESPN, plus some of the Pac12 guys that we may be more familiar with (sorry for the formatting).

It is likely that he will put on some extra weight over the years.  Mauro (244) , Gardner (240), and Anderson (258) all started in this range or less.  But Thomas appears to be a more explosive athlete with speed that may help make up for the pounds at this point.  I would think that given our depth at the position, he should be able to contribute this year. 


Defensive Ends
NAME POS HT WT SCHOOL GRADE POS RANK
Jadeveon Clowney DE 6'5" 258 South Carolina 96 1
Stephon Tuitt DE 6'6" 303 Notre Dame 92 2
Kony Ealy DE 6'4⅝" 275 Missouri 89 3
Dominique Easley DE 6'2¼" 284 Florida 88 4
Demarcus Lawrence DE 6'3" 244 Boise State 87 5
Scott Crichton DE 6'3" 260 Oregon State 84 6
Kareem Martin DE 6'5⅞" 272 North Carolina 79 7
Dee Ford DE 6'2⅛" 243 Auburn 78 8
Jeoffrey Pagan DE 6'4" 290 Alabama 72 9
Jackson Jeffcoat DE 6'4¼" 254 Texas 70 10
Morgan Breslin DE 6'1¼" 246 USC 60 15
Carl Bradford DE 6'1" 241 Arizona State 57 18
Cassius Marsh DE 6'4" 254 UCLA 50 21
Devon Kennard DE 6'2⅞" 257 USC 49 22
Josh Mauro DE 6'5½" 276 Stanford 41 25
Ben Gardner DE 6'3⅞" 276 Stanford 30 30