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Dawkins - stanfan95118 - 02-25-2014

At the risk of having this post deleted immediately (for its lunacy), I am wondering if anyone thinks Dawkins and MBB have, perhaps, finally turned a corner. I think my wishful thinking is getting the better of me. I so miss the days of Monty's teams, though the tournament was often disappointing.

Re: Dawkins - Nan3cy - 02-25-2014

You are probably not alone in thinking wishfully. Others are afraid to hope.


Re: Dawkins - washingtonismoney - 02-25-2014

Stanford basketball is definitively better this time than last time. The trouble is, how much of that improvement is due to underlying change in Dawkins's ability, and how much is simply the maturation (in relative terms) of his centerpiece recruiting class? When you have a team as experienced and highly-recruited as Stanford's, it'd be weird if it weren't improved.

It's not as if the conference is comprised of powerhouses either. Aside from Arizona it looks fairly average to me. Given that and Dawkins's general malaise, I'd be inclined to toss him after the year ended. The expectation (that some fans perceived) from Muir, that the team compete for a conference title was a reasonable one. Dawkins hasn't done that and hasn't suffered from some heinous run of bad luck. Toss him.

Re: Dawkins - stanfan95118 - 02-25-2014

Sadly, I've been routing against this team all year, hoping for dawkins' dismissal. I think they make the tourney, though, and dawkins stays. 

Re: Dawkins - Papa John - 02-25-2014

I will never root against Stanford athletics teams. Not when the football team was heading to 1-11 in 2006 and certainly never against the basketball team this year or any other year.

Personally, I would have excused Coach Dawkins after the 2012-13 season, but I would wait until after the postseason before deciding the same after this season. My expectation is that this team make the Sweet Sixteen (and not in the NIT).

Re: Dawkins - teejers1 - 02-25-2014

This team could still (easily?) lose 4 in a row and watch the NCAAs on TV . . .

Stanford hoops and the NCAAs fall into the category of "I'll believe it when I see it."

P.S.  Thanks for jinxing the whole damn thing with this thread!

Re: Dawkins - StanFan88 - 02-25-2014

(02-25-2014, 03:09 PM)stanfan95118 link Wrote:Sadly, I've been routing against this team all year, hoping for dawkins' dismissal. I think they make the tourney, though, and dawkins stays.

And then we will have 2-3 more years of mediocrity because the cupboard is pretty bare, relatively speaking.  Maybe there are some stars in the incoming class and the current freshmen, but beyond that I haven't seen anybody who is NCAA tournament caliber.  Randle will be the only player of that caliber on next year's roster, and one is nowhere near enough.

But I'm sticking to my statement.  I will not return to Maples to see MBB live until Dawkins is gone.

Re: Dawkins - stanfan95118 - 02-25-2014

(02-25-2014, 03:14 PM)Papa John link Wrote:I will never root against Stanford athletics teams. Not when the football team was heading to 1-11 in 2006 and certainly never against the basketball team this year or any other year.

Oh brother...

Re: Dawkins - burger - 02-25-2014

(02-25-2014, 04:27 PM)teejers1 link Wrote:This team could still (easily?) lose 4 in a row and watch the NCAAs on TV . . .
Eh, doubtful.  Utah has won 1 road game all year, at woeful USC.  So that game is almost a sure thing.  And we'll be favored at Maples against Colorado.  Aaaand...I won't be shocked if we eke out one win in the desert.  ASU is not a great team, and U of A has been much more human without Ashley.  We almost beat them the first time around.

Anyway, we have a bit of cushion now.  1-3 probably gets us into the Tourney anyway assuming we don't get a bad loss in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament.  2-2 is a sure thing.

I'd rather see a new coach replace Dawkins (look what Larry Brown, who we almost got instead of Dawkins, has done at SMU), but I don't see it happening.

Re: Dawkins - BostonCard - 02-25-2014

(02-25-2014, 05:54 PM)StanFan88 link Wrote:[quote author=stanfan95118 link=topic=9597.msg84494#msg84494 date=1393366195]
Sadly, I've been routing against this team all year, hoping for dawkins' dismissal. I think they make the tourney, though, and dawkins stays.

And then we will have 2-3 more years of mediocrity because the cupboard is pretty bare, relatively speaking.  Maybe there are some stars in the incoming class and the current freshmen, but beyond that I haven't seen anybody who is NCAA tournament caliber.  Randle will be the only player of that caliber on next year's roster, and one is nowhere near enough.

But I'm sticking to my statement.  I will not return to Maples to see MBB live until Dawkins is gone.
[/quote]

The recruiting services certainly seem to believe that the incoming class has some stars, relatively speaking.  This is the strongest class in the Dawkins era, and probably the best class since we signed a pair of twins now in the NBA (and a third guy who also made it to the NBA).

BC

Re: Dawkins - Treebound - 02-25-2014

After attending a number of our home games this year, I will admit that the team played its best game in some time against UCLA.  I too, think we will make the Dance.  My worry is that we will meet with an early (Monty-like) departure.  Should we lose in the first round, in ugly, give it away at the end, Dawkins style then I would hope that Muir would seriously consider a change.  He has been to almost every home game and he was a player for Delaware, so I would hope he has a sound perspective.  This is going to be interesting to watch.  The optimist in me wants to see Powell and Josh go out with a bang and make it to the Sweet 16.  The realist has a hard time thinking we suffer yet another coaching let down.  To think 10 years ago we were ranked #1!

Re: Dawkins - BostonCard - 02-25-2014

The sample size is very low here.  We looked good in the UCLA game, but we have looked good in the past, and then suffered an inexplicable meltdown.  We are in third place in the Pac-12, which is about where I expect us to be.  We have a reasonably clear path to the tournament but can still blow it.  I'm happy with where we are, but I still think Dawkins has a long way to go to prove that he is the right guy for the job.

BC

Re: Dawkins - SUBuddha - 02-25-2014

I will be attending the Sunday game against the U of A. Look for the chubby bald guy with the nerd nation or fear the tree t-shirt near mid court 2-3 rows up. This will be my first chance to see a Dawkins coached team in person. I am prepared for the worst and hoping for the best.

Re: Dawkins - scorecard - 02-25-2014

(02-25-2014, 03:05 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Stanford basketball is definitively better this time than last time. The trouble is, how much of that improvement is due to underlying change in Dawkins's ability, and how much is simply the maturation (in relative terms) of his centerpiece recruiting class? When you have a team as experienced and highly-recruited as Stanford's, it'd be weird if it weren't improved.

I wonder how much of this is improvement in Dawkins' ability versus that of his new assistant coach Tim O'Toole.  In recent years, our end game always seemed to be a one-on-one isolation and unless you have a dominant player, this is most often a losing proposition.  At least we installed the triangle this year, and are just now starting to show some competency running it.  Our zone defense also looks more passable as of late (which it should given the relative length of our players).  I have no inside information about how the dynamics of the coaching staff works, but is that O'Toole's influence (who used to have head coaching experience at Fairfield)?  Does Tara have anything to do with the triangle being installed? 

Dawkins has shown the ability to recruit reasonably well (considering the limitation of the one-and-done rule).  So do we have something similar to the Golden State Warriors situation?  Dawkins' might be akin to Mark Jackson, a head coach who players appear to love playing for, and the assistant coaches can just handle the X's and O's (like Mike Malone used to do for Golden State).  If we are going to keep Dawkins, having a great assistant coach might be the next best move. 

Does anyone have more insight into our current coaching staff?

Re: Dawkins - CrazedZooChimp - 02-26-2014

(02-25-2014, 07:22 PM)Treebound link Wrote:After attending a number of our home games this year, I will admit that the team played its best game in some time against UCLA.  I too, think we will make the Dance.  My worry is that we will meet with an early (Monty-like) departure.  Should we lose in the first round, in ugly, give it away at the end, Dawkins style then I would hope that Muir would seriously consider a change.  He has been to almost every home game and he was a player for Delaware, so I would hope he has a sound perspective.  This is going to be interesting to watch.  The optimist in me wants to see Powell and Josh go out with a bang and make it to the Sweet 16.  The realist has a hard time thinking we suffer yet another coaching let down.  To think 10 years ago we were ranked #1!

And promptly lost in the second round.  Having been at that game, I would hope we don't repeat that situation ever again.  I agree it's not clear whether this is actually Dawkins (or his staff) improving or just the talent on the team getting better, but really we have had good recruiting classes (from the little I pay attention to bball recruiting) the past two years, and again this year.  The team shouldn't be getting any less talented going forward.

Re: Dawkins - indiancardinal - 02-26-2014

My secret fantasy (not so secret anymore) for this bball season unfolds thus:

After being blown out at Arizona, the players meet in secret and decide this pathetic coaching staff is not going to define their legacy. They then go on a miracle Hoosiers like streak that sees our beloved Cardinal beat Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship game and then go on another miracle run in the Dance where they lose by a point to Syracuse in the National Championship Game.

Meanwhile Duke wins the ACC Championship, gets  a No 1 seed and flames out in the first round of the Dance. Jabari Parker announces he is leaving for the NBA. Coach K announces that he is going on an indefinite sabbatical citing exhaustion and the desire to spend time with his grand kids.

DUKE BASKETBALL quickly swoops in and woos Dawkins back where he belongs.. hailing him as the next Emperor of Basketball. Dickie V swears he is going to name his next grandchild Dawk.

All of us Cardinal faithful breathe a collective sigh of relief as Muir sets out to find us a real coach.

P.S. Fast forward 5 years the Duke program is in complete shambles and Stanford has just reached its 3rd straight Final Four

Re: Dawkins - scorecard - 02-26-2014

(02-26-2014, 01:01 AM)indiancardinal link Wrote:My secret fantasy (not so secret anymore) for this bball season unfolds thus:

After being blown out at Arizona, the players meet in secret and decide this pathetic coaching staff is not going to define their legacy. They then go on a miracle Hoosiers like streak that sees our beloved Cardinal beat Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship game and then go on another miracle run in the Dance where they lose by a point to Syracuse in the National Championship Game.

The fantasy was terrific except the losing by 1 point in the title game.  What a brobdingnagian letdown for a fantasy!  If you're going to dream, you might as well dream big.  Here's my insertion into your fantasy sequence (think the movie Inception):

The National Championship Game comes down to the wire with Stanford up 1 with the ball with 8 seconds left.  Powell gets double-teamed and throws an ill-advised crosscourt pass which is intercepted by Tyler Ennis who starts the break the other way but he is cut off by Randle.  Ennis leaves a bounce pass to streaking Syracuse forward Jerami Grant who absolutely teabags Robbie Lemons with a monster dunk, but is called for a questionable charge with Lemons sliding over just in time to get a face full of Grant's junk during the play.  Boeheim goes ballistic, screaming "You can't do this to me again", and gets T'd up twice and ejected with 1 second left on the clock.  We hit the first 3 free throws, sealing the game, and the last one is shot and made by Lemons underhanded in honor of the Hoosiers movie.  Lemons goes on to become somewhat of a folk hero, and subsequently makes a nice living as the spokesperson for Lipton Lemons Tea bags. 

Why am I writing this when I should be asleep and getting rested for work tomorrow?  Because my secret fantasy is that I will win the Powerball jackpot and quit work altogether.  The odds of each scenario happening are roughly equivalent, I suppose.

Re: Dawkins - CapitolHillCard - 02-26-2014

A few thoughts to add to the many other good posts in this thread

1. The team is clearly doing better and against better competition.  The PAC-12 is ranked third overall and will send 6-7 teams to the dance.  There is one excellent team and many good teams. Seven teams in top 50ish (Cal is 51) and ten in top 100.

2. The cupboard is hardly bare for team. We return 3 out of 5 starters, including our first and third leading scorers. We should get back our top reserve (Rosco Allen) who should start and fills a position of need.  We have our best recruiting class in a decade. The best of our recruits are in positions of need (Travis, Humphrey). We will be deeper, talented, and have lots of experience.

3. My sense is O'Toole has made a difference, and that is a good sign for Dawkins. Hiring good assistants and putting them in position to do good things is an important part of a head coach's job.

4. I think Dawkins has improved as head coach generally. He may not yet be a great X&Os coach, but he is much better than he was. I recognize that is somewhat faint praise, but, hey, it is at least praise.

5. We can go 1-3 in the last 4 games and we would still make the Dance, provided those losses don't include losing to Utah at home.  At this point, avoiding bad losses is much more important for us than great wins. That said, we will have much more post-season success if we have a little momentum going into NCAAs.

6. This is not a top 16 team nationally. We may catch fire and make the sweet sixteen, which would be really wonderful, but I don't think it accurate to say that this team will have underperformed if it loses in the second round.

7. Barring a total, late season collapse - we lose every remaining game and don't make the Dance -- Dawkins is coming back. 

Re: Dawkins - TriangleTree - 02-26-2014


Why are people confident that 1-3 makes the dance?
I think it decidedly does not. A clear bubble team needs 2 out of these last 4 to give those friendly in the comittee a reason to defend it.

I think tonight is the biggest test of the year. It's a game where we will be underdogs but expected to put up a good fight, a game that should get us over the hump and prove this team is over the hump, exactly the kind of game we have come to expect to lose and one with a lot riding on it.

A win tonight gives me confidence that there is progress. 

This team and season reminds me of those in the early career of Brevin Knight, where the PAC was strong but didn't get much recognition, away games were really tough to win and you needed to defend home court at all cost. Brevin was often the difference on those, and the team finally gained the confidence to put it all together. That season were we were robbed against Tim Duncan's Wake Forest in the tournament was one of the most enjoyable ever, and it was great to see a team perform to their highest level.

I am still waiting for this team to put it together, and frustratingly, they seem to have the pieces in place. I really hope they do, starting tonight.





Re: Dawkins - teejers1 - 02-26-2014

1.  The team that lost to Alabama in NCAAs (the most brutal Stanford sports loss in my adult life, I believe) was a very very good team that should have made it to the Elite 8 - and many argue would have, but for an almost incomprehensible FT differential in the Alabama game.  BUT, that team, while ranked #1 for a lot of the season, was not Stanford's best team under Monty.  That honor belongs to the 2001 team - that squad blew everybody out for most of the season, and then lost in the Elite 8 to a Maryland team that played extremely well.  No shame in that.  The most memorable Stanford team, of course, was the Final Four squad (perhaps the most fun ever for this long time Cardinal fan).

2.  If Dawkins' teams ever attained what we saw in terms of quality of play in any of those squads, then we'd all be happy.  And if Dawkins gets the team to the NCAAs, then he will be back and the door is not shut on his ability to lead a well-coached team.  I tend to agree that he is getting a little better (i.e., the team plays like it is a little better-coached than it has in the past), but there is still a long way to go between what we're seeing and this team playing to its potential.

3.  I think the talent on this squad is really, really good.  Powell, Heustis, and Randall are tremendous athletes with a lot of skill.  And Anthony Brown - from what little I've seen of him this year - looks brilliant at times.  In short, I'm not sure Stanford has ever had more talent on its roster than it does now (though I think it's pretty clear that Montgomery got more out of his talent than Dawkins has . . . at least so far).  Let's hope Dawkins continues to progress - both for the rest of this year and in the future.