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WBB: Scouting North Carolina - 81alum - 03-31-2014

Background:
North Carolina was a perennial final four team, much like Stanford has been lately, in the mid 2000s.  Stanford’s return to prominence on the national stage since the 2008 season coincided with North Carolina entering into a drought in recent final 4 appearances.  In fact, the last time we played them was in 2011 in the sweet sixteen, when Nneka, Chiney, Toni, Jeanette, Kayla, and Lindy sent them home after a very physical and tough fight played in Spokane.  That game was  tied with 2 minutes left in the game.  Chiney was 8/14 in that game and Ruef played just a couple of minutes.  Toni hurt her ankle in that game, if I recall correctly, which hurt us down the stretch when she could play only 4 minutes against A&M.  There is no one left on the North Carolina team that played that day–they do not have a single senior.

This year, North Carolina’s beloved coach Sylvia Hatchell has been battling leukemia, and the team has been led by Associate Head Coach Andrew Calder.  The team has been on an emotional crusade to play for Hatchell, as Diamond DeShields said yesterday after the win over South Carolina.  Recently Hatchell announced that she is in remission but has one last chemo treatment to go, and that she hoped she could return to coach if her team made the final four.  Wow, talk about an emotional motivator for her team!
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10683602/coach-sylvia-hatchell-north-carolina-tar-heels-says-final-four-return-very-doable

This year the story for North Carolina–although it pales besides Hatchell-- has been its superb class of frosh players who seem to have turned its fortunes for the better.  They have been starting 3 frosh, a sophomore, and a junior.  This had led to some inconsistent play, but also some high-level play.  Nothing could exemplify that more than the NCAAs.  In round one, UT Martin nearly knocked them off and was up 18 with 11 minutes left.  UNC stormed back from that near-defeat and then dominated Michigan State and led South Carolina from beginning to end.

Record and Ranking:
North Carolina is 24-9 on the season, and 10-6 in the ACC conference.  They finished tied for fifth in that conference behind Notre Dame, Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina State.  They were knocked out of the ACC tournament in the semifinals by Duke, who they had beaten during the regular season.

Their  wins over ranked teams have been over South Carolina (twice), Duke (they split their two games with Duke a week apart), Maryland, North Carolina State (twice), Florida State, and Nebraska. 

Their losses have come from Tennessee, Arizona State, Maryland, Syracuse, Miami and Georgetown (the last three all in one week in January), Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Duke. 

Sagarin has them ranked 13. 

While Stanford’s RPI was 3rd, NC’s was 21st.

Stats:
Stat categories in which NC is in the top fifty nationally:
Scoring is 19th (Stanford 30th)
Scoring margin 14th (Stanford 9th)
FG% 31st (Stanford 8th)
FG% defense 31st (Stanford 10th)
Blocked shots 31st
Steals per game 6th
3 pt FG% defense 23th
Turnover margin 43rd

Common Opponents:
We actually have a lot of common opponents, but none since January:
Tennessee (NC -16, Stanford +6)
UCLA (NC +10, Stanford +17, +9)
Arizona State (NC -13 in overtime, Stanford +26)
Florida State (NC +4, Stanford +19)
Boston College (NC +17, Stanford +12)

With most common opponents, we have done better than NC.  But keep in mind that NC is very dependent on its terrific freshman class, and is playing much better in the months since we had these common opponents.

Players:
Diamond DeShields (27.5) a 6'1" freshman guard.  The daughter of major league baseball player Delino DeShields, she was the 2014 Naismith high school player of the year.  She is UNC’s leading scorer at 18 ppg.  While she has taken the most three point shots for her team she makes only 28%.  On the other hand, she has excellent ball control skills and poses a match up problem with her 6'1" height against much smaller guards.  She can slash to the basket and grabs rebounds, and she has 91 assists on the season.  I am not sure how we should defend her.  Lili and Amber are probably too short, but I don’t know if Bonnie or Taylor can keep up with her.

Allisha Gray (25.5) a 6'0" a freshman guard.  Allisha is their second leading scorer at 14 ppg.  She is their deadliest three point shooter at 42% and she shoots a lot of them.  She gets a lot of offensive rebounds for a guard.  Again, a 6' guard will pose some problems for Lili and Amber to guard on the perimeter.

Xylina McDaniel (26.4) a 6'2" sophomore forward.  She averages 11 ppg, making 48% of her shots.  She also hits 40% of her three pointers, although she takes about half as many as the guards.

Stephanie Mavunga (24.6) a 6'3" freshman forward.  Mavunga is their big inside presence, averaging 11 ppg at 52%.  She is only a 59% free throw shooter.  She leads the team in blocks (90 on the year) and with rebounds with 8pg and gets almost as many offensive rebounds as defensive.  She also leads the team in fouls and has fouled out 4 times this year. 

Latifah Coleman (23.3) a 5'9" junior guard.  Latifah is their starting point guard and handles the ball.  She scores about 5 ppg.  She has taken about 50 three point shots this year at 29% and scores about 39% overall.  She has a positive assist/turnover ratio but nothing astronomical.

Brittany Rountree (20.2) a 5'9" junior guard.  She is the back up point guard, but when UNC was ahead of South Carolina at the end and SC began to press, she was inserted to become the principle ball handler due to her 85% free throw shooting.

Thoughts:
One big question mark is how banged up Diamond DeShields is.  South Carolina treated her very roughly and she had to leave the game twice to tape up.  News stories have her aggravating a left knee injury and taping up her ankle "as tightly as possible."  But she did come back in the game and played well both times.

On defense, the problem seems to be how to contain their perimeter players.  They do have a couple of players who shoot the three very well, but they all seem to love to drive the ball fearlessly into the paint--the kind of guards that have given us problems this season.  Amber can certainly handle Coleman or Rountree, Ruef can handle Mavunga, and Chiney could handle McDaniel. But who will match up with DeShields and with Gray, their two leading scorers?  At 6' and 6'1", and with the ability to shoot and drive, I worry whether our guards are tall enough or our wings athletic enough.  And the problem with a zone like we used against Florida State is that UNC can shoot the three much better than Florida State.

On offense, we simply have to make our shots.  I don't think Mavunga or McDaniel could possibly handle Chiney one-on-one, so we are going to see some openings elsewhere.  What I do think UNC does much better than other teams we have played is to box out and grab defensive rebounds.  I don't see Chiney and Ruef getting many O-boards this game.  Also, UNC loves the transition game and is fast.  Since Tara hates to be beaten outside the half court, my guess is that she will be sending multiple players back on defense rather than keeping them in for O-boards.  This will put a premium on shooting accuracy.




Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - Yellowlab - 03-31-2014

Thanks for that 81.  I recall that game in Spokane very well.  They were tough.  I expect another difficult game, but I like this team's chances. 

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - 81alum - 03-31-2014

I just noticed this:

Quote:South Carolina starting guards Tiffany Mitchell and Khadijah Sessions were a combined 4-for-22 in the game. And Welch and Mitchell sat significant minutes with foul trouble in the first half, the Gamecocks going into the locker room down 11.

"They were clogging," Mitchell said. "Making it very difficult for us to drive into the lane."

North Carolina, in consultation with Hatchell -- still not with the team as she finishes treatment for leukemia -- came in with a new defensive game plan. Calder said he installed it yesterday.

"I'd rather keep that a little bit to ourselves," Calder said. "But for us not to have practiced it very much at all, Diamond and the players did a tremendous job adjusting."

But it was effective early against the Gamecocks and ultimately gave his team the ability to pull off the upset.
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10700807/women-ncaa-tournament-2014-stanford-cardinal-cruise-penn-state-nittany-lions-north-carolina-tar-heels-outbattle-south-carolina-gamecocks

Anyone know what newfangled defense North Carolina played yesterday?


Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - 76lsjumb - 03-31-2014

(03-31-2014, 02:03 PM)81alum link Wrote:I just noticed this:

Quote:South Carolina starting guards Tiffany Mitchell and Khadijah Sessions were a combined 4-for-22 in the game. And Welch and Mitchell sat significant minutes with foul trouble in the first half, the Gamecocks going into the locker room down 11.

"They were clogging," Mitchell said. "Making it very difficult for us to drive into the lane."

North Carolina, in consultation with Hatchell -- still not with the team as she finishes treatment for leukemia -- came in with a new defensive game plan. Calder said he installed it yesterday.

"I'd rather keep that a little bit to ourselves," Calder said. "But for us not to have practiced it very much at all, Diamond and the players did a tremendous job adjusting."

But it was effective early against the Gamecocks and ultimately gave his team the ability to pull off the upset.
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10700807/women-ncaa-tournament-2014-stanford-cardinal-cruise-penn-state-nittany-lions-north-carolina-tar-heels-outbattle-south-carolina-gamecocks

Anyone know what newfangled defense North Carolina played yesterday?

Tampa Cover 2? [At least they looked big enough to play that...]  ;D

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - 81alum - 03-31-2014

I've just watched a couple of North Carolina games on ESPN3 replay--what a great scouting resource.  I've got several additional observations after having done so.
1) North Carolina is deep.  None of their starters play more than 27 minutes.  This helps them keep their energy levels up for....
2) Their man to man defense.  They seldom play zone.
3) DeShields has a zippy stop-and-pop that really cannot be guarded.  While her overall 3 point % is not impressive, in some games she gets hot and makes several treys in a row. 
4) Allisha Gray hardly gets noticed because of DeShields, but she is a very serious perimeter threat.
5) DeShields is often used on defense in the paint.  We could see her on Chiney some of the time.


Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - Viking_Guy - 03-31-2014

81A--

One of the things I'm always concerned about against a deep team - the "even-handed" approach to officiating, where a foul disparity one way or the other is evened up prior to halftime by a lot of calls mysteriously going one way.  I'm concerned that a lot of early fouls called against the Tar Heels (but spread out among their players as they rotate in banging Chiney) will eventually lead to a couple of key fouls being called against Stanford (like a second on Amber or Chiney before halftime).

They seemed to play quite a bit of zone against South Carolina, but that could just be because the Gamecocks couldn't shoot from outside worth a damn.  Also because Mavunga got in foul trouble.  When she did, the Gamecocks' inside players went off in the second half, but the lack of balance (and trouble finishing inside once the Tarheels dropped everyone into the lane) finished them off.

Also extremely worried about point-of-attack defense - I think we can hedge pretty hard on the high picks without getting burned, but letting DeShields into the lane is asking for trouble.

VG

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - 81alum - 04-01-2014

Some updates from the press.  The big question is the health of DeShields:
Quote:The ankle "doesn't feel good at all," DeShields said Monday. But "they are going to have to basically to take me down and strap me into a chair to stop me from playing."
http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_25461713/no-2-seed-stanford-ready-no-4-north
Quote: On Sunday, DeShields rolled her right ankle early in the first half, then later re-aggravated a left knee injury. She has been getting treatment for her injuries.  “It’s a game-time decision and we’re hoping she’s going to be out there on the floor,” Calder said. “If she’s not out there, we’re prepared to play without her if that situation arises.”
It sounds a little like rope-a-dope to me.  I presume she will play and that the hoopla over her injuries is overblown.  But she could be like Karlie--nursing a bad ankle or knee that slows her down a little but doesn't stop her from playing,

A few notes from the press conference on game strategy.  It sounded as if we were still not decided as to who would start guarding DeShields, but that there would obviously be help.  Tara's description of North Carolina was interesting:
Quote:“They’re a little bit unpredictable in a dangerous way,” VanDerveer said. “They make a lot happen with their athleticism, in transition, on the glass, creating one-on-one shots. We are just opposite teams.”
She said that as you watch some teams, "you can tell what's coming," but not UNC.  "They do a lot of things on instinct...good instinct" whether it is trapping or blocking etc. and sometimes this led to surprising situations where she said "Really?"  "It works for them" she said, but you could tell that she would never coach a team in that manner.  Tara is not about spontaneous play, and she is looking at a team that has taken a bunch of highly talented but inexperienced frosh and largely turned them loose.

It sounds like they will be denying Chiney, as per usual.  One thing I loved about her game on Sunday was that she got the ball at the top of the key and drove to the basket.  She probably will need to do that again:
Quote:The less she touches the ball the better,” UNC freshman forward Stephanie Mavunga said.  Mavunga’s teammates are confident they can get it done.  “I love tough challenges, and she’s definitely one,” 6-2 forward Xylina McDaniel said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/stanford-north-carolina-each-look-to-final-four/2014/03/31/4493d6ee-b90f-11e3-80de-2ff8801f27af_story.html

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - AtlantaBadger - 04-01-2014

From the "Interesting to me but otherwise utterly useless trivia" Department:

Diamond DeShields is from the Atlanta area.  She attended Woodward Academy through the 8th grade, an then transferred to Norcross, a much bigger public high school, with a MUCH, MUCH better basketball coach and program, where she proceeded to lead the team to 4 straight Georgia state championships.  In middle school at Woodward, Diamond played on the same team as one Eva Anderson, the younger sister of Henry (#91).  Interestingly, that 7th and 8th grade team also featured another daughter of a former major league baseball player, Tianna Grissom, daughter of Marquis Grissom.  Together, Diamond and Tianna were a fearsome duo (Tianna played PG; Diamond pretty much played wherever she wanted).  It was too bad that the Woodward basketball program was not run very well, or we likely could have kept Diamond at Woodward for high school.  She is an outstanding talent.

Henry also played football and baseball at Woodward with Delino DeShields Jr., who upon graduation from Woodward was selected by the Houston Astros organization as the 8th overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft.  Delino is still in the Astros organization, I think this year with their AA club in Corpus Christi.

Eric 

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - yvonne - 04-01-2014

(04-01-2014, 07:32 AM)AtlantaBadger link Wrote:From the "Interesting to me but otherwise utterly useless trivia" Interesting to the board because it provides background not available elsewhere Department:

There, I fixed it for you!

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - fullmetal - 04-02-2014

Curious--why did the Anderson clan remain at Woodward?  (Academics/atmosphere over the draw of sports?  Not uncommon among Stanford admits, right?)

Re: WBB: Scouting North Carolina - AtlantaBadger - 04-02-2014

A whole lot of reasons to stay at Woodward Academy.  We chose that school for our kids with virtually no regard for athletics, other than that the school did have a good array of sports and would give them the opportunity to participate, cheer on their teams, etc.  Henry is far and away the most accomplished athlete in the family, but if you had suggested to us when we were looking for schools when he was just in elementary school (our kids went to local public elementary school) that Henry or any of our kids would be playing football or any sport on scholarship in college, we would have asked you to submit to a drug test because that would have been crazy talk.  We absolutely are NOT "stage parents" or the sports equivalent.  My wife and I always joke that "we ordered musicians but got athletes."  Woodward is the largest "independent" school in Georgia, and so has a wide array of opportunities for artists, performers, athletes, you name it.  It draws students from over 40 counties and is no doubt the most diverse of any of the Atlanta private schools.  Ellen and I were both public school products growing up in Madison, WI, and wanted to find the closest thing to a really good public school experience within the Atlanta independent school choices.  Woodward is that place.

Did we from time to time wish that they had a better head football coach or head basketball coach when our kids played?  Sure.  But switching schools never entered into our minds -- we did not choose Woodward for the football team or basketball team or softball team anyway.  Our kids all had terrific experiences at WA.  The school prepared them all very well for college and for life in general.  Sort of like the "40 year decision" that Stanford likes to talk about, only earlier. 

Eric