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WBB: Where's the elite talent? - TheFarm07 - 04-25-2014

6 Final Fours in 7 years, a HOF coach, a Stanford degree, 15 consecutive Pac-10/12 regular season titles, it's not hard to come up with the brochure to bring the top athletes to the Farm

Yet, since Chiney Ogwumike committed in 2010, Stanford's women's basketball has failed to recruit a Top-10 recruit with Erica McCall right at the border last year.

As UConn has shown us the past couple of years, you need multiple elite talents to win a national title.

As we go into the post-Ogwumike era, the lament is that Stanford is without a superstar for the first time in more than a decade going from Nicole Powell to Candice Wiggins to Jayne Appel to the Ogwumike sisters.  The question people should be asking is why hasn't Stanford reaped the recent success we had?

Next to UConn and N.D., our streak of 6 of the 7 last Final Fours is pretty impressive, but the truly elite has ignored us. This year's class, Brianna Turner had Stanford among her final 5 and Jordin Canada was considering the Farm, but no other top-10 recruit really had Stanford on the radar?  Why?

True, rankings aren't always a 100% accurate predictor of success, but they often are. Chiney, Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Breanna Stewart, 3 of the last 4 #1 recruits have turned out to be superstars and Mercedes Russell still has 3 years left to show her talent.

When we were close to winning the title in 2010 and 2011, we had four WNBA first rounders on the floor: Appel, Nneka, Pohlen and Pedersen and then Chiney the next year.  We need that depth of talent to challenge not only UConn, but South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Duke, North Carolina, and UCLA, who are stockpiling the elite.

Hopefully, out of the 3 Class of 2014 recruits or a rising sophomore, someone will rise to elite All-American status, but it looks like a long road ahead to even consider being in the same boat.

Tara is a HOF coach, but she's not a miracle worker.  Elite talent can beat the best coaching and when you pair elite talent up with great coaching like at UConn, they can dominate.

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - 81alum - 04-25-2014

Yes, I'm concerned. But you have to remember that out of the top 10 recruits it is not always the case that there will always be even 1 who is admissible.  Even if we get a 100% yield on our recruits we are going to have problems.  UConn can, if it wishes, compete for any or all of the top ten every year.  Stanford can probably compete for 0-2 of them each year.  This means that for Stanford to be successful, Tara has to be more creative about finding admissible stars "in the rough."  It is a much more difficult kind of recruiting and requires far more judgment of talent  than most coaches possess.  Lili Thompson or Jeanette Poulen come to mind as top players who were not so highly regarded earlier.

Each year's top recruit:
2014 Rooks is 18
2013 McCall was 11
2012 Beebe was 13
2011 Orrange was 15
2010 Chiney was 1.
2009 Tinkle was 10
2008 Nneka was 6
2007 Pedersen was 4

But all that could change if we get
2015 Samuelson at 1



Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - TheFarm07 - 04-25-2014

@ Mikeferrari and @81alum

All of the things you said are true.  I guess I am spoiled.  It would be one thing if we had mediocre sports teams and then we could say because of our high admittance standards, that's the way things goes, but we have a truly awesome athletics program, especially considering we have a lot fewer student athletes to choose from, to cultivate our success from, that I take for granted that we would be able to get top recruits especially in programs we are very strong in and non-football and non-mens basketball sports, as those athletes traditionally leave early for the pros.

Getting Katie Lou Samuelson would be a brobdingnagian boost for us.  I hope the opportunity of playing for 2 years with older sister Karlie will help sway her to the Farm.

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - Jskass - 04-26-2014

Agreed it requires more creativity. Yesterday's ESPNW piece on KLS says it is between UConn and ND. Hopefully she chooses us and sees long-term value of Stanford, especially when we seem to be in the hunt for another top 5 in her class, with a commit from top 10 Wilson in the next class.

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - 81alum - 04-26-2014

(04-26-2014, 01:10 AM)Jskass link Wrote:Agreed it requires more creativity. Yesterday's ESPNW piece on KLS says it is between UConn and ND. Hopefully she chooses us and sees long-term value of Stanford, especially when we seem to be in the hunt for another top 5 in her class, with a commit from top 10 Wilson in the next class.
Thanks for pointing out that article
http://espn.go.com/espnw/news-commentary/article/10832079/hoopgurlz-mater-dei-katie-lou-samuelson-new-no-1-prospect-espnw-hoopgurlz-super-60-2015-class-says-finalists-connecticut-huskies-notre-dame-fighting-irish-stanford-cardinal-kentucky-wildcats-ucla-bruins
although I do hope the speculation by her AAU coach and her Mater Dei coach turns out to be wrong.  They may not have as much interest in academics or in family, after all, as the Samuelsons do.  At the same time, Katie Lou is reputed to be quite a very competitive and independent personality, so we cannot count on the sister connection defining her choice.  Let's hope she makes the forty year decision for her own reasons.

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - TheFarm07 - 04-26-2014

(04-26-2014, 05:43 AM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=Jskass link=topic=9893.msg88524#msg88524 date=1398499839]
Agreed it requires more creativity. Yesterday's ESPNW piece on KLS says it is between UConn and ND. Hopefully she chooses us and sees long-term value of Stanford, especially when we seem to be in the hunt for another top 5 in her class, with a commit from top 10 Wilson in the next class.
Thanks for pointing out that article
http://espn.go.com/espnw/news-commentary/article/10832079/hoopgurlz-mater-dei-katie-lou-samuelson-new-no-1-prospect-espnw-hoopgurlz-super-60-2015-class-says-finalists-connecticut-huskies-notre-dame-fighting-irish-stanford-cardinal-kentucky-wildcats-ucla-bruins
although I do hope the speculation by her AAU coach and her Mater Dei coach turns out to be wrong.  They may not have as much interest in academics or in family, after all, as the Samuelsons do.  At the same time, Katie Lou is reputed to be quite a very competitive and independent personality, so we cannot count on the sister connection defining her choice.  Let's hope she makes the forty year decision for her own reasons.
[/quote]

I read that ESPNW article as well; thanks for bringing it up and I was disheartened to see her two coaches feeling that she would choose N.D. or UConn.  I would love to see her in the Cardinal red for the next four years.

Kyra Lambert is another top-5 talent considering Stanford and judging from a ESPNW article earlier this year, she is very committed to academics, so we might be a favorite for her. 

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - Jskass - 04-26-2014

Agreed. Plus one has to think we will get some strong 2015 talent that isn't top ten but has a lot of heart such as hopefully Faith Suggs and Erica O. I agree that hopefully KLS realizes it's a 40 year decision, not just 4 and for the NCs.

Other challenge is where has all the height gone? Most of the players who are interested in us these days seem to be guards or wings!

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - TheFarm07 - 04-26-2014

(04-26-2014, 09:20 AM)Jskass link Wrote:Agreed. Plus one has to think we will get some strong 2015 talent that isn't top ten but has a lot of heart such as hopefully Faith Suggs and Erica O. I agree that hopefully KLS realizes it's a 40 year decision, not just 4 and for the NCs.

Other challenge is where has all the height gone? Most of the players who are interested in us these days seem to be guards or wings!

Seems like we have the opposite problem from a couple years ago, when our best players were posts and forwards and we were struggling to find the right guards to complement them.  Probably cost us the 2011 national semi against Texas A&M.  No one to match up against the speed of Colson and Carter.  That one still hurts.  We had the best team to win the title that year.  Both Ogwumike sisters, Pederson, Pohlen...

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - 81alum - 04-26-2014

(04-26-2014, 11:40 AM)TheFarm07 link Wrote:[quote author=Jskass link=topic=9893.msg88535#msg88535 date=1398529210]
Agreed. Plus one has to think we will get some strong 2015 talent that isn't top ten but has a lot of heart such as hopefully Faith Suggs and Erica O. I agree that hopefully KLS realizes it's a 40 year decision, not just 4 and for the NCs.

Other challenge is where has all the height gone? Most of the players who are interested in us these days seem to be guards or wings!

Seems like we have the opposite problem from a couple years ago, when our best players were posts and forwards and we were struggling to find the right guards to complement them.  Probably cost us the 2011 national semi against Texas A&M.  No one to match up against the speed of Colson and Carter.  That one still hurts.  We had the best team to win the title that year.  Both Ogwumike sisters, Pederson, Pohlen...
[/quote]
And of course the loss to Tennessee in the 2008 National Championship that was defined by their ability to press and cause us to make turnovers, since we lacked the quick guard play we needed.  I remember Candice bringing the ball up court herself much of the time.  We were good enough to defeat UConn, and after that game Geno commented "I knew how to defeat Stanford, but due to injuries we just did not have the depth to press them."  Tennessee listened and pressed us.  We had 25 turnovers in that game. 

Yes, I would say things are swinging the other way, and having the great posts has become the problem rather than having the point guards. 

Erica McCall still may become a superstar, and if she does we won't be quite so concerned.  She had  2,655 points in high school, and 1986 rebounds, and 983 blocked shots, plus she grew up with a basketball coach dad, so she clearly knows how to play.  Remember that Geno went all out to get her, and she chose Stanford.  Geno, by the way, did not get anyone that year rated higher than McCall.  I don't think Geno and Tara were both wrong about her talent, so I do expect to see a great deal more from her next year.  Tara always says that the greatest improvement that players make in their career is usually between their freshman and sophomore years, so we might see a break out year for Erica now that she will get ample opportunities.

Re: WBB: Where's the elite talent? - TheFarm07 - 04-26-2014

(04-26-2014, 03:07 PM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=TheFarm07 link=topic=9893.msg88546#msg88546 date=1398537601]
[quote author=Jskass link=topic=9893.msg88535#msg88535 date=1398529210]
Agreed. Plus one has to think we will get some strong 2015 talent that isn't top ten but has a lot of heart such as hopefully Faith Suggs and Erica O. I agree that hopefully KLS realizes it's a 40 year decision, not just 4 and for the NCs.

Other challenge is where has all the height gone? Most of the players who are interested in us these days seem to be guards or wings!

Seems like we have the opposite problem from a couple years ago, when our best players were posts and forwards and we were struggling to find the right guards to complement them.  Probably cost us the 2011 national semi against Texas A&M.  No one to match up against the speed of Colson and Carter.  That one still hurts.  We had the best team to win the title that year.  Both Ogwumike sisters, Pederson, Pohlen...
[/quote]
And of course the loss to Tennessee in the 2008 National Championship that was defined by their ability to press and cause us to make turnovers, since we lacked the quick guard play we needed.  I remember Candice bringing the ball up court herself much of the time.  We were good enough to defeat UConn, and after that game Geno commented "I knew how to defeat Stanford, but due to injuries we just did not have the depth to press them."  Tennessee listened and pressed us.  We had 25 turnovers in that game. 

Yes, I would say things are swinging the other way, and having the great posts has become the problem rather than having the point guards. 

Erica McCall still may become a superstar, and if she does we won't be quite so concerned.  She had  2,655 points in high school, and 1986 rebounds, and 983 blocked shots, plus she grew up with a basketball coach dad, so she clearly knows how to play.  Remember that Geno went all out to get her, and she chose Stanford.  Geno, by the way, did not get anyone that year rated higher than McCall.  I don't think Geno and Tara were both wrong about her talent, so I do expect to see a great deal more from her next year.  Tara always says that the greatest improvement that players make in their career is usually between their freshman and sophomore years, so we might see a break out year for Erica now that she will get ample opportunities.
[/quote]

Thanks for bringing up the '08 national title game against Tennessee.  I still remember all the full court presses Summitt had against us and couldn't figure out why we couldn't break those presses.

Hmmm, I knew McCall was considering UConn, but I didn't know Geno was so primed on her.  Hopefully, this past year working with Chiney will reap tons of benefit over the next 3 years, because as of now, she is our top inside threat.  As you said, she will have all the chances this year.

I know the season is 6 months away, but I'm excited to see the development of the team beyond reliance on Chiney these last 2 years.  It has to be a team effort from all 5 players if we are going to hold Cal, UCLA with their #1 recruiting class, USC, UW and Arizona State for the Pac-12 title.