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Stanford Football National Champs? - Hank 91 - 11-11-2010

Here\'s how it can happen:

http://www.gomightycard.com/2010/11/stanford-cardinal-national-champions.html

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - gbiddulph - 11-11-2010

Sweet!

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - fullmetal - 11-11-2010

TCU losing to SDSU?  That may be the most unlikely link the chain of improbably events, but hey, I wouldn\'t complain.  It did pain me to read that game recap knowing how unlikely it would be.  Also, McGillicuddy beating a cornerback for a touchdown pass?  I\'d take it, but that\'s rather amusing to imagine!

Then again, who\'d have thought Kansas would come back from over 21 points down in 12 minutes to beat Colorado?

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - Farm93 - 11-11-2010

The path is not that complicated.  It actually is rather easy.

Oregon falls to OSU.  Alternative paths - C.a.l at Memorial rises up or UofA gets its act together.
Auburn falls to Alabama.  Alternative paths Cam must sit out some future 2010 games or Auburn falls in the SEC Championship game.
TCU - Will be the BCS Championship game opponent, their path is clear.
Boise State - Falls to Nevada.  Alternative paths - None
LSU - Falls to Arkansas.  Alternative paths - they finally get unlucky at the end of a game.

It would be helpful if some others fall or at least look bad.

But it only matters if the team finishes 11-1 and looks good in November.

FWIW - This is like the Voldemort.  It is not enough to wait until the last week and push, push, push.  The program, the local media and the conference would need to start that BCS and/or BCS national game campaign now.  If it falls flat fine, but to wait until Nov 28 would really stack the deck against Stanford.

Here would be the talking points...

Plays in the best conference in 2010
Only loss on the road at Oregon with injuries at WR
6 road contests (not 4 like some SEC programs)
Contests against 11 AQ teams
Impressive wins, 2 shutouts
Most NFL ready QB, likely #1 overall draft pick
etc.

If the Cam Newton things starts to get out of control, Stanford would have another appeal to the powers.  That would be that Stanford does it "right".

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - needle - 11-11-2010

Do you really think Stanford would vault over a one-loss Oregon team in the human polls?

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - fullmetal - 11-11-2010

Assuming only BCS rankings matter, I don\'t think the computers would let Stanford vault Oregon if Oregon lost to Oregon State...right?  Unless we crushed Oregon State by more than we lost to Oregon, or however that arcane formula is calculated...

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - 97fan - 11-11-2010

This is obviously speculative, but I don\'t think the computers would be the problem in a scenario where the Beavers beat the Ducks. Oregon is currently #3 in the computers, and Stanford is #6. I think we would move ahead of them in the computers if they lost to OSU and we won out. Our schedule is probably a little bit tougher than theirs - we played them on the road - and our best loss would be better than their best loss. Plus, margin of victory doesn\'t count.

I also think this would be the best scenario for us to pass them in the human polls, since it would be their last game, and they\'d have no chance to bounce back and remind the voters that they\'ve been destroying everyone else. Still, I think there would be a lot of voters who would refuse to put us ahead of Oregon, based on the fact that they beat us by three touchdowns. In the end it would probably be very close.

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - Farm93 - 11-11-2010

Depends on how they lost, and why they lost.

Remember, Oregon had some pretty uneven performances on the road early.  So if they look weak at C.a.l and lose to OSU, then some may conclude some things about Oregon\'s abilities away from Eugene.

There are ample examples in the BCS\' young history of teams going into the BCS game that lost to others almost as worthy.  And FWIW, LSU in 2010 clearly would fall into that camp.  LSU\'s path is pretty clear actually.  They could get in even if Auburn is the SEC champ.  And this is that LSU team that was darn lucky to beat a terrible Tennessee squad.

The BCS now even describes that 3 conference teams can get into BCS games.  The scenario?  The conference champ gets the automatic invite while that same conference has two at-large teams at #1 & #2 in the final BCS standings.  Most likely to occur in the Big12 or SEC, but it is still outlined.  So 11-1 Stanford going ahead of Oregon, or against Oregon are clear possibilities that BCS organizers have anticipated.

Transitive properties, and logic can be tossed.  Stanford lost on the road at Oregon, a good loss.  Oregon would have a loss at OSU, ordinarily an OK loss.  However, OSU is a team that lost to Boise State and TCU, so in 2010 that would be a very, very bad loss.

Losing early has always been better than losing late.

And if Oregon loses because LMJ gets injured or something, then they may fall below Stanford because pollsters could say Stanford is better here in December than that newly weakened Oregon team.

Nothing in the Stanford path to the BCS championship game is highly likely, but it is possible.  Many computers have Stanford as the highest 1 loss team that puts Stanford into the conversation.  And since that is likely all that will happen, why not embrace the idea for a while.  That lottery ticket is probably worthless, but why not embrace the dream and the possibilities while it lasts?

Re: Stanford Football National Champs? - fullmetal - 11-12-2010

Auburn might have to sit Newton if this situation gets any more heated.  Cam should have been able to display his talents in an honest manner, but if his family had committed NCAA infractions, it\'s likely Auburn would be one of the dominoes that falls Stanford\'s way.