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Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Printable Version

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Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-06-2014

Stanford defeated Santa Clara tonight to raise its overall record to 22-20. As for the Pac-12 conference (which, sans Colorado, has 11 teams), Stanford is 9-12, good/bad enough for 8th place. However, the team's RPI is currently 29, thanks to its #5 strength of schedule.

Amazingly, this team still has a shot at the postseason. Left on the regular season conference schedule are three-game series at 10th-place UA and 11th-place Utah and a home series vs. 7th-place WSU. There are a couple of midweek games, vs. SJSU and UOP, to boot.

If Stanford wins two out of three for the remaining conference series and takes down the two non-conference opponents, the team will finish at 30-25, 15-15 with a likely 6th-place finish in conference and a tournament-worthy RPI. But will that be good enough? Last year, Stanford finished 32-22, 16-14, but its RPI was 63, and it was on the wrong side of the bubble.

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-12-2014

Stanford took two out of three at UA this weekend, bringing its record to a not-quite-mediocre-but-improving 24-21, 11-13 in Pac-12. Stanford is in 7th place in conference, one game behind WSU, which visits the Farm for a three-game series beginning on Friday. If you get Pac-12 Networks, every game of the WSU series will be televised live.

Stanford's RPI is a solid 32, due mostly to its #6 strength of schedule. I heard some announcers on Pac-12 Networks say that an 8-3 finish--4 out of 6 vs WSU and Utah and non-conference wins vs SJSU and Pacific--would give the team a realistic shot at a bid to the NCAA tournament.



Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - BobK - 05-12-2014

Stanford has won 13 of their last 18 which will help towards post season. 

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - yvonne - 05-12-2014

You knew I was going to do this when you wrote that subject line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-12-2014

(05-12-2014, 08:25 AM)Yvonne link Wrote:You knew I was going to do this when you wrote that subject line.

Of course I knew, Yvonne. I was just wondering what took you so long?  ;D

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-12-2014

And one more thing about Stanford's NCAA chances. Here are the current conference standings, with conference record, overall record and RPI:

1. OSU, 20-4, 38-8, #5
2. UW, 19-5, 36-11-1, #24
3. UO, 14-10, 35-16, #25
4. ASU, 14-10, 26-21, #41
5. USC, 14-13, 26-22, #78
6. WSU, 12-12, 22-24, #122
7. Stanford, 11-13, 24-21, #32
8. UCLA, 10-14, 23-25-1, #115
9. Cal, 9-15, 21-25, #67
10. UA, 8-19, 19-30, #184
11. Utah, 4-20, 15-30, #166

Stanford has a shot at 5th place, since USC--which won two out of three at Stanford back in March--has been reeling as of late. The Trojans lost two out of three to WSU and Cal in their most recent conference series, and have only 1st place OSU left on their conference schedule.

In any case, this is a really impressive turnaround when you consider that exactly one month ago Stanford was 3-8 Pac-12, 11-16 overall (thanks for pointing this out, BobK). I know that nothing beats a national championship, which we've been fortunate enough to see every year since I was in grade school, i.e. a long time ago. But I have to admit it's just as thrilling for me to see a team overcome adversity, continue to improve when they could have thrown in the metaphorical towel, and put together a playoff drive like this team has done. Go Stanford!

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-14-2014

Well, I did not see that coming. Stanford inexplicably gave away a nonconference game to RPI 192 San Jose State, 10-8, last night. How do I operationally define "gave away"? Consider:

SJSU had 12 hits in 37 official at bats
Five Stanford pitchers collectively gave up 7 walks, 2 wild pitches and hit 3 (yes, three) batters
Stanford fielders committed 2 errors.
Of the 10 runs that SJSU scored, only 6 were earned

Stanford's RPI has tumbled to 42, and its postseason hopes are on life-support. According to the Stanford Daily, the team likely needs to win all of its seven final games. That's not impossible given the level of the competition, but it's also unlikely, considering that Stanford has not won more than three games in a row all season.

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - CTcard - 05-14-2014

(05-14-2014, 10:34 AM)Papa John link Wrote:Stanford inexplicably gave away a nonconference game to RPI 192 San Jose State, 10-8, last night.
...
According to the Stanford Daily, the team likely needs to win all of its seven final games. 


That was indeed a bad loss that will hurt come selection time.
It is, at least, Stanford's first mid-week loss. 

However, as far as I can tell the statement in the Daily was just picked out of the air and isn't based upon anything in particular.

Boyd's World has always speculated that #45 the key RPI boundary for the tournament. He calculates that Stanford needs to win 6 of 7 to remain above #45 (based upon current RPI values - not projected). A little surprising since he has Stanford at #41 right now, but the rest of the schedule is significantly weaker than it has been up to now: games vs #124 WSU, #141 Pacific, #166 Utah - and the RPI is 75% strength of schedule.

To really get a feel you have to do a count and sort through the bubble teams. As always  bubble teams need to root against upsets in conference tournaments. My gut tells me it's unlikely Stanford gets in - but I haven't done the work to guess intelligently.

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - Papa John - 05-14-2014

I hope that you're right CTCard, but before last night's game, Jeremy Mills of ESPN had Stanford among his last five in the tournament. As of today, I think that Stanford is on the outside looking in. Time to sweep WSU!

Re: Stanford Baseball: "I'm not dead" - CTcard - 05-14-2014

(05-14-2014, 01:28 PM)Papa John link Wrote:I hope that you're right CTCard, but before last night's game, Jeremy Mills of ESPN had Stanford among his last five in the tournament. As of today, I think that Stanford is on the outside looking in. Time to sweep WSU!

Well, since I noted that my gut instinct is that Stanford is out, I rather hope I am wrong.