Interesting graph from a Texas blog - Printable Version

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Interesting graph from a Texas blog - washingtonismoney - 09-30-2014



Horizontal axis: number of OL starts
Vertical axis: S&P on offense metric.

Apparently Ohio State is the only team with fewer than 30 OL preseason starts to be above-average offensively.

(See: http://www.barkingcarnival.com/2014/9/29/6864689/charlie-strong-monday-press-conference-baylor-week#261669988)

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - needle - 09-30-2014

Seeing Oregon so far to the right, I'm guessing the graph is not factoring in injuries?

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - washingtonismoney - 09-30-2014

(09-30-2014, 08:49 AM)needle link Wrote:Seeing Oregon so far to the right, I'm guessing the graph is not factoring in injuries?

Good point -- I guess they're not. But I think Oregon's performance has backed up the notion that OL experience is very important. They looked quite weak against Washington State, whereas in relatively healthy state against a better defense -- i.e. Michigan State -- they performed really well. But tough to say without more granular data.

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - BostonCard - 09-30-2014

Question... where were we?  Prior to this year, Peat was the only player to have started, right, though the other players got more offensive line experience than linemen at most schools.

BC

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - CTcard - 09-30-2014

(09-30-2014, 10:50 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Question... where were we?  Prior to this year, Peat was the only player to have started, right, though the other players got more offensive line experience than linemen at most schools.

BC

Well, Stanford apparently has an S&P of 104.3.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

I believe that before the season started, Stanford had 18 starts (14 by Peat, 2 by Garnett, 2 by Murphy - from their bios on the official site).

That would put them kind of close to where Ohio State is on that graph, but not actually corresponding to any of the data points.

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - washingtonismoney - 09-30-2014

Hm, you're right, odd. Maybe it's been normalized in some way.

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - fullmetal - 09-30-2014

Re: Ohio St.--They've played Cincy, Kent St., VA Tech, and Navy.  I'd venture to guess that those four schools don't have particularly stout defenses (VA Tech lost to ECU, didn't they?)...

The Big10 is kind of a soft conference anyway--Ohio St. can get by with their "lack of experience" there, but I don't think such inexperience would be viable in the Pac-12 or $EC.

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - Leftcoast - 09-30-2014

Well, that's what I thought on Dec 31st last year.  I realized at least one team in the conference was pretty tough the next day.

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Re: Interesting graph from a Texas blog - washingtonismoney - 09-30-2014

The natural mistake we keep on making is the logical leap between:

Player/team /coach X has done it against a weak schedule which increases uncertainty over what X would do against a strong one

And

Player/team/coach X has done it against a weak schedule and is therefore bad.

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