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Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - Hulk01 - 10-01-2014

My scout guy has Hogan going in the first three rounds and not later than the the fifth QB.

I asked him about Hogan's recent fumble issues.  "QBs with hands that big and strong aren't going to fumble much, and he's not going to be running much in the pros anyway."  And, "Youu can teach ball security, and you can't teach 6-4, 230." 

Golston?  "You can't unteach 6-0"

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - OutsiderFan - 10-01-2014

Hogan does have big hands and is a sturdy guy.  But I'm having trouble seeing him as an NFL QB if he can't dominate college defenses, especially since he already plays in an NFL system in college. 

If college Hogan were in his third year as an NFL starter, and performing the same way as with Stanford ona relative basis, where would he rank among NFL QBs? 

He's got great completion stats and yards per attempt numbers, but his release is so damn long and slow.  How can scouts overlook this? 

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - Bruce Wang - 10-01-2014

I think the My Little Ponies might find value to him as a backup to Andrew.  He knows the system.  Especially handing the ball off to a running back up who will run up the middle for 2 or 3 yards.

Sarcasm aside.  I'm still optimistic about Kevin.  It might not be until next year, but he will do great with an experienced line and an elite RB (McCaffrey).

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - CTcard - 10-01-2014

(10-01-2014, 10:21 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:If college Hogan were in his third year as an NFL starter, and performing the same way as with Stanford ona relative basis, where would he rank among NFL QBs? 

I don't quite know what this means.
If Hogan had the same numbers he currently has but in the NFL, he would be the highest rated passer. His PER would be 116.4, the current NFL leader is Rivers at 114.5, then Rodgers, Wilson, Manning, and Luck are in a virtual tie (but in that order) around 108-109.

Of course that is kind of silly, he wouldn't have the same numbers in the NFL.
So, what does "performing the same way ... on a relative bases" mean?

Nationally, Hogan is #15 in the country in pass efficiency rating. That's 15/128 teams = 12th percentile - equivalent to #4 in the NFL, Peyton Manning right now.
Still, not really useful.

Completely qualitatively, if he moved the team as he has but had similar red zone woes, wouldn't that make him ... Cam Newton? [Actually, Carolina is poor in the red zone in 2014, and was in 2013, but was not in 2011 and 2012. Perhaps there is a better choice for "moves the team but cannot score" icon.]

Quote:He's got great completion stats and yards per attempt numbers, but his release is so damn long and slow.  How can scouts overlook this?

I find this an interesting issue. It drives me crazy watching him - it just looks hideous. However, it is not completely clear to me if this particular trait puts a big damper on his performance right now. My immediate guess is that he has other issues that have a bigger immediate impact (working through progressions, some happy-feet).

I would also think this would have to hurt him with respect to the NFL, but there have certainly been ugly throwing motions in the NFL before.

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - Hulk01 - 10-01-2014

Part of what makes Hogan a pick is that the NFL needs at least 64 quarterbacks, and your backup guy can become a starter in one secnd.  How many decent and intelligent college QBs who stand at least 6-3 are there?  (And yes, Brees et al, but outliers of course don't count.)  The big QB can see better--see over the DL--and Hogan can take a hit, move around a bit, and throws a helluva deep ball.  He's not an elite college QB, and there's this: many merely pretty good college QBs have become good pro QBs.  (See Drew Stanton)  Sundays are a different game, not the least because all hell is coming down on you constantly,

Add to it the fact that it's hard to project the transition from college to pro, for that reason.  Blaine Gabbert, as one well-document case, fell apart when NFL players started running at him.  He simply could not see and play at NFL speed.

So you take a little chance on a big guy who can throw the bomb and isn't afraid to stand in and make something happen. 

That's how it's been explained to me.



Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - fullmetal - 10-01-2014

So...basically Hogan is a better version of Joe Flacco, but he's no Andrew Luck.  Let's hope that Hogan's projected NFL coach is as smart as Shaw/Bloomgren and will playcall to Hogan's strengths as well.

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - BostonCard - 10-01-2014

(10-01-2014, 10:48 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=10764.msg100127#msg100127 date=1412184112]
If college Hogan were in his third year as an NFL starter, and performing the same way as with Stanford ona relative basis, where would he rank among NFL QBs? 

I don't quite know what this means.
If Hogan had the same numbers he currently has but in the NFL, he would be the highest rated passer. His PER would be 116.4, the current NFL leader is Rivers at 114.5, then Rodgers, Wilson, Manning, and Luck are in a virtual tie (but in that order) around 108-109.

Of course that is kind of silly, he wouldn't have the same numbers in the NFL.
So, what does "performing the same way ... on a relative bases" mean?

Nationally, Hogan is #15 in the country in pass efficiency rating. That's 15/128 teams = 12th percentile - equivalent to #4 in the NFL, Peyton Manning right now.
Still, not really useful.

Completely qualitatively, if he moved the team as he has but had similar red zone woes, wouldn't that make him ... Cam Newton? [Actually, Carolina is poor in the red zone in 2014, and was in 2013, but was not in 2011 and 2012. Perhaps there is a better choice for "moves the team but cannot score" icon.]

Quote:He's got great completion stats and yards per attempt numbers, but his release is so damn long and slow.  How can scouts overlook this?

I find this an interesting issue. It drives me crazy watching him - it just looks hideous. However, it is not completely clear to me if this particular trait puts a big damper on his performance right now. My immediate guess is that he has other issues that have a bigger immediate impact (working through progressions, some happy-feet).

I would also think this would have to hurt him with respect to the NFL, but there have certainly been ugly throwing motions in the NFL before.
[/quote]

I believe the formulas for pass efficiency rating are different in the NFL than in college, so you cannot compare the numbers straight up, unless you recalculated Hogan's PER for the NFL.

[EDIT: having done the re-calculation myself, I see you calculated Hogan's NFL PER.  Never mind.]

BC


Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - SamAtoms1980 - 10-01-2014

(10-01-2014, 10:21 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Hogan does have big hands and is a sturdy guy.  But I'm having trouble seeing him as an NFL QB if he can't dominate college defenses, especially since he already plays in an NFL system in college. 

If college Hogan were in his third year as an NFL starter, and performing the same way as with Stanford ona relative basis, where would he rank among NFL QBs? 

He's got great completion stats and yards per attempt numbers, but his release is so damn long and slow.  How can scouts overlook this?

Andrew Luck, even in his last season with the Cardinal, wasn't perfect.  He was the number 1 overall draft pick by a light-year.  Kevin Hogan has fair pro prospects, even if he may end up frustrating the devil out of the fans of whatever NFL team he winds up playing for.

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - teejers1 - 10-01-2014

Put me in "Camp Hogan-will-be-an-UDFA." 

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - kuz - 10-01-2014

(10-01-2014, 03:11 PM)teejers1 link Wrote:Put me in "Camp Hogan-will-be-an-UDFA."
Last time I said that, I got downvoted immediately. But I concur. Hogan has size and a decent arm, but that's about it; he's not accurate enough, doesn't have good enough pocket presence, and doesn't make his reads well enough to be a good NFL QB.

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - Rally - 10-01-2014

(10-01-2014, 06:55 PM)kuz link Wrote:[quote author=teejers1 link=topic=10764.msg100182#msg100182 date=1412201471]
Put me in "Camp Hogan-will-be-an-UDFA."
Last time I said that, I got downvoted immediately. But I concur. Hogan has size and a decent arm, but that's about it; he's not accurate enough, doesn't have good enough pocket presence, and doesn't make his reads well enough to be a good NFL QB.
[/quote]

Sounds like Tom Brady at Michigan.  Or, with other flaws, Kaepernick, Wilson, Flacco, et al.  College success or failure doesn't always translate to the NFL.  See Richardson, Sproles, host of others.  Curt Warner?  Love the one you're with.

Re: An unexpected Hogan reference - fullmetal - 10-02-2014

Well, root for the one you're with.  But don't let that one feel complacent :p  Get better every day.