Steve Durrett's projections - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Steve Durrett's projections (/thread-8006.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Steve Durrett's projections (/thread-8006.html)
Steve Durrett's projections - BostonCard - 10-11-2014
Steve Durrett, who is a regular on the other site, and every once in a while visits here to share his phenomenal photos, has had, for years, a method of seeing how a team's statistics stack up based on the quality of the opponent. The premise is simple; how does a team's performance compare to the average of how it's opponents have fared against their other opponents. In other words, Stanford allowing 292 yards passing against WSU isn't exceptional until you compare it to WSU's other games, where they were averaging over 500 yards passing. The statistics are thus a ratio, with a 1 meaning that the team is performing against its opponents about the same as its opponents other opponents have. The data is openly available and Steve is transparent about his methodology. You can download the spreadsheets he uses at his site.
http://durrettphoto.com/html/football_statistics.htm
A few things jump out:
The defense is phenomenal... it ranks at or near the top of every significant category, and it has nothing to do with the fact that we dominated (and shut out) Davis and Army. We rank 1st in yards per game (holding opponents to 54% of what they usually do), yards per attempt (61%), and points (25%). We are also at or near the top in terms of pass defense, and pretty good on run defense.
On offense, things aren't great, but they aren't horrible either. We are a decidedly average team; with a yards per attempt that matches what our opponents usually give up. Points per game is only 98% of what our opponents usually give up, and most of the per-play stats rank about average.
The other cool feature of the site is that it lists the projections of how Stanford would be expected to do against its remaining schedule. By Steve's method, we are favored in every game we have left: 29-11 against ASU, 22-8 against OSU, 19-13 against Oregon, 18-10 against Utah, 35-14 against Cal, and 22-12 against UCLA. For what it is worth, his method predicted a 29-11 win against WSU.
BC
Re: Steve Durrett's projections - deepred - 10-11-2014
Very interesting analysis.
I'd be interested to know if he's making money off his predictions!
Re: Steve Durrett's projections - martyup - 10-11-2014
(10-11-2014, 02:50 PM)deepred link Wrote:Very interesting analysis.
I'd be interested to know if he's making money off his predictions!
I'd gladly pay him if he's correct. :D
Re: Steve Durrett's projections - French Rage - 10-11-2014
What did he predict for the USC and ND games though?
Re: Steve Durrett's projections - martyup - 10-11-2014
(10-11-2014, 05:46 PM)French Rage link Wrote:What did he predict for the U$ and ND games though?
That doesn't matter since his projections are based on our performance in those games.