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Point spread for UCLA game - Printable Version

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Point spread for UCLA game - pcgoode - 11-24-2014

-4.5 points for the Bruins. I'm a bit surprised it is this low.

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - Hulk01 - 11-24-2014

So a two-loss uCLA by 1 to 1,5 on a neutral field against a five-loss team--and from the same conference?

The line will be up to 6 by the time this reply appears.  And 6.5 not long after.

Still love our guys.  But the odds of covering at +4.5 don't seem better than 30 percent.  What is Vegas doing here?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - Hulk01 - 11-24-2014

And Arizona is -4.5 at home against ASU.  Not as odd as our game, but Arizona is a one point favorite on a neutral field against the Sun Devils?  Wouldn't most of us think it's ASU -1 or 1.5?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - OutsiderFan - 11-24-2014

Despite having a 6-5 record, Stanford is a very competitive team that plays close games.  People make a living overestimating the good teams, forgetting just how much parity there is.  My guess is UCLA falls behind early and comes back late, Stanford does something heroic and Hundley leads them down for a game winning FG as time expires. 

Stanford and UCLA always play close games in the Rose Bowl. 

What is the word on Montgomery playing?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - FarmBoy - 11-24-2014

We are just a few plays against U'SC, N'D, and Utah away from being 9-2 right now. Our defense will give anyone a trouble and a a few breaks will make the game winnable.

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - Hulk01 - 11-24-2014

Against our six common opponents, UCLA has won by an average of 40-31.  We've lost 19-22.

I like our chances of staying inside 8 points, and I agree aren't the classic 6-5 team.  But I don't see how the oddsmakers looked at the numbers and called it a near toss-up on a neutral field. 

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - stupac2 - 11-24-2014

I thought we'd have a good shot going into this game with how badly UCLA's OL had been playing, but then they looked really good against USC. If we can get consistent pressure then I like our odds, if we can't then we're screwed. I guess we'll see, I'm not super optimistic. Then again, it's been forever since UCLA has beaten us, maybe we just have their number?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - CTcard - 11-24-2014

(11-24-2014, 10:10 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:If we can get consistent pressure then I like our odds, if we can't then we're screwed.

I think this will be a very important issue, balanced by the pressure UCLA can bring on Hogan.
These are two QBs who generally do not handle pressure well; both have a hard time scrambling to pass and once they move tend to bug-out. Hundley makes some great plays doing that, but also gets sacked a lot (though he has improved to second most sacked QB in the Pac-12, tied for 110th in the country).

While Stanford has not been quite as sack happy this year as in the immediate past, they still mostly bring a lot of pressure (tied for 3rd Pac 12 in sacks, 10th nationally). But against Oregon it seemed we could get no pressure at all - certainly without blitzing - and look what happened to our defense there.

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - BostonCard - 11-24-2014

I agree with Hulk.  I had envisioned this as a 1 to 2 touchdown spread for UCLA.  We have not won any of our games against decent or better opposition (at Washington, barely bowl eligible, is our best win; Cal, OSU, WSU, Army, and Davis are all middling, at best, teams).  We have two substantial losses, at ASU and at Oregon, and UCLA looks more like those two teams (currently sitting at 9-2 and considered a long-shot but still a possibility for the playoffs) than it looks like the teams we played close and lost (USC, Notre Dame, and Utah).  Plus UCLA is playing for a Pac-12 championship berth, so it will be highly motivated.  They have a goodish defense (third in the Pac-12 in total defense), and we have struggled against good defenses.  It's hard to see us putting up more than 20 points on them, and though it might be possible for our defense to hold them within that range, they'd have to play an epic game.  Something like 24-7 UCLA is possible, 17-10 seems like the most likely, and if we win it would have to be something like 17-14 or 14-13.

BC

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - Hulk01 - 11-24-2014

Sagarin seems to have this at about UCLA -10.  His numbers usually predict the spreads.  Why are the books at such offs with him this time?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - martyup - 11-24-2014

You know, maybe we'll  just thump em good.  We are due for pulling an upset.  And, this upset would screw them out of the CCG and potentially the playoffs.  It's a short week after a tough game against USC and they'll  probably be looking past us to the CCG.  WTH, let's stick it to the Bruins in front of their big blue and gold clad crown in the Rose Bowl.  >:(

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - BostonCard - 11-24-2014

(11-24-2014, 03:53 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:Sagarin seems to have this at about UCLA -10.  His numbers usually predict the spreads.  Why are the books at such offs with him this time?

Usually with a discrepancy this large it suggests an injury that cannot be reflected in Sagarin, but to my knowledge, UCLA didn't suffer any major injuries against USC.

BC

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - stupac2 - 11-24-2014

(11-24-2014, 03:53 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:Sagarin seems to have this at about UCLA -10.  His numbers usually predict the spreads.  Why are the books at such offs with him this time?

Maybe the betting public likes us? Don't know why, since we only ever seem to cover against terrible teams.

(11-24-2014, 04:42 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Usually with a discrepancy this large it suggests an injury that cannot be reflected in Sagarin, but to my knowledge, UCLA didn't suffer any major injuries against U$€.

Not anything I saw.

Re: Vision from the remote cave - Oasis - 11-24-2014

After several days of sweating, starving and peyote I predict Stanford wins 21-17.

Re: Vision from the remote cave - CowboyIndian - 11-24-2014

(11-24-2014, 05:30 PM)Oasis link Wrote:After several days of sweating, starving and peyote I predict Stanford wins 21-17.
Any peyote left?

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - fullmetal - 11-25-2014

Montgomery was not on the depth chart for the UCLA game.

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - OutsiderFan - 11-25-2014

UCLA is the luckiest team on the planet.  Their offense was nonexistent against Virginia and they eke out a victory with three defensive TDs.  They faced ASU before they made the changes on D that made them formidable, and with their first time starting second string QB.  They even got a totally bogus roughing the kicker penalty on a last second kick FG miss, that gave them another chance even closer in, that thankfully was also missed.  And they got a questionable replay review to seal a 2 pt win in Berkeley.  Now they get to play Stanford without Ty Montgomery.

Re: Point spread for UCLA game - martyup - 12-03-2014

(11-24-2014, 04:15 PM)martyup link Wrote:You know, maybe we'll  just thump em good.  We are due for pulling an upset.  >:(

I love it when things turn out as planned.  I also love the fact that we are 13-0 against Pac-12 Ursi.