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Looking ahead - gocard14 - 12-01-2014

I know it's a bit premature, but I was curious about people's thoughts on the team next year. IMO the biggest factor by far will be whether we can adequately replace Anderson, Perry, and Leuders on the D-line. 

QB: My thought is Hogan comes back unless it is clear that he will lose the starting job, either way we should have stability or improvement.  (=)

OL: If Peat stays the Oline should be improved next year based on the dramatic improvement we've seen over the last 3-4 weeks of this year. (up)

RB: We will at least be stable, and I'm hopeful that an offseason with Turley can turn McCaffrey into more of an every down back. (up)

TE: Tight ends are young and should continue to improve, plus the addition of Dalton Schultz (up)

WR: We take a hit with Montgomery leaving.  But our offense showed against UCLA that it can function just fine without montgomery at WR. Cajuste and Rector are back, and Owusu looks poised for a big step up here. (down)

D-line: The big question mark. We lose 3 of our top 4 DLs, including 2 studs in Anderson and Parry.  Coming back we have Shittu, who looks good but injury prone, Phillips, who looked good but undersized, Kaumatule, who is athletic but inconsistent, and people who have not yet seen the field (hoping for big things from Solomon Thomas). At best we can hope for a mild drop off, but regardless of how the starters play our D-line depth will again be a major concern. (way down) 

LB: We lose Vaughters and Tarpley, but have a lot of talent waiting to increase rotation time including Kalambayi, davis, palma, alfieri, etc. We have shown ourselves to be quite adept at replacing stud linebackers and I don't forsee a major problem here. (=)

DB: Assuming Carter stays and Lyons gets a 5th year from the NCAA, we lose Richards (big loss), and Olugbode. We will need Whitfield and others to step forward, but should still have an excellent DB corps. (down)

Special teams is another important factor: We went from excellent to terrible on ST this year and that made a key difference in several of our losses.  Lot of room for improvement here.

By my count we should have improvement at most positions on offense and a mild to moderate regression on defense.  That being said, looking at losses at the end of the year always paints a negative picture as it fails to account for the contributions of incoming redshirt and true freshman and reserves.  Our defense has shown to be especially adept at replacing departing talent, though if we don't have the bodies on the D-line there's only so much scheme can cover for that. The schedule is also much kinder next year about home vs. away splits, but I would be shocked if our non-conference slate of ND, northwestern, and UCF was not the toughest in the country.

This should be a team with upside to compete for a Pac-12 title or even the playoff with a few breaks in our direction, while the lower bound being little improvement on offense with a regression on defense leading to a 6-6 record.

Re: Looking ahead - Hulk01 - 12-01-2014

1.  Can we run between the tackles?  Can we present a running threat on 3rd and 4?  Can we regularly convert on 3rd and 2?  Christian probably isn't the answer, even with 8-10 more good pounds.  Chris Warren may have to be--assuming we get him--because Brandon Scarlett--assuming him--won't be recovered and built up enough to play power back.

2. Can Phillips, Solomon Thomas, and X play solid-to-good on the defensive front?

3. Can Hogan throw more consistently and keep hold of the ball?

The other pieces of this team seem more than good enough, if whomever is the OC can make good use of those pieces.

Re: Looking ahead - BobK - 12-01-2014

Great post, thanks.

I believe it was announced Lyons has a 5th year.
Peat 90% gone.
Cajuste 75% gone
Carter 60% gone all my guesses.

I believe the NFL only gives feedback about the first 2 rounds now, I think?  That could help us with Cajuste and Carter.

Really hope Watkins adds to our DL.

Such a big need, a big back.

STs were terrible?

The biggest add is a change in coaching responsibilities.  The last 2 games shouldn't fool Shaw.  We had a great tread on that but the simple fact is adding a coach means deleting a coach. 

Re: Looking ahead - stupac2 - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 08:54 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:1.  Can we run between the tackles?  Can we present a running threat on 3rd and 4?  Can we regularly convert on 3rd and 2?  Christian probably isn't the answer, even with 8-10 more good pounds.  Chris Warren may have to be--assuming we get him--because Brandon Scarlett--assuming him--won't be recovered and built up enough to play power back.

Marx?

Quote:2. Can Phillips, Solomon Thomas, and X play solid-to-good on the defensive front?

This question is probably going to be the equivalent of this year's questions about the OL. Biggest problem by far, unless we get massive unexpected attrition at various positions.

Quote:3. Can Hogan throw more consistently and keep hold of the ball?

As of right now I'm going to believe that UCLA Hogan was the real deal. This may be delusional but LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU.

(12-01-2014, 09:04 AM)BobK link Wrote:Great post, thanks.

I believe it was announced Lyons has a 5th year.
Peat 90% gone.
Cajuste 75% gone
Carter 60% gone all my guesses.

I believe the NFL only gives feedback about the first 2 rounds now, I think?  That could help us with Cajuste and Carter.

We haven't had someone leave after 3 years in forever. Plus Peat has had some issues this year. OL is hard to evaluate and he's probably still a 1st rounder, but is he a top-10 pick? All of those things could point to coming back. It's virtually impossible to predict, but if he didn't want to finish his degree why come to Stanford instead of whatever-the-hometown-school-was?

Quote:STs were terrible?

Yes. For all the talk about how bad our offense was this year our ST actually regressed more (from elite to bad, as opposed to very good to average to the offense). I think that if our ST stayed elite we'd have a couple more wins, same as if our offense had stayed very good.

Quote:The biggest add is a change in coaching responsibilities.  The last 2 games shouldn't fool Shaw.  We had a great tread on that but the simple fact is adding a coach means deleting a coach.

Eh, it's really hard to tell what the actual deal was here. It's entirely possible that we have the right the right staff had problems that are out of the coaches' control, like:

1) Bad OL play for most of the year.
2) Hogan's erratic play for most of the year (probably related to 1).
3) Bad luck.

If Shaw wants to change the staff around, that's fine. If he doesn't, that's fine. I trust his judgment a lot more than I trust anyone outside of the program, because there are way too many variables that we're not exposed to.

Re: Looking ahead - OutsiderFan - 12-01-2014

DL, DL, DL.  It's all about the DL.

Can Shittu, Thomas, and Phillips (my assumed starters) add the weight they seem to need, probably 15-20 pounds each?

Will Kaumatule be moved back to DE as would seem to make sense given the depth at OLB and lack of it at DE?

Will Watkins finally step up?

Will Lohn be reliable?

Will Annan and/or another 2015 signee be ready to contribute as solid backups at DE and NT as True Frosh?









Re: Looking ahead - Farm93 - 12-01-2014

Now Stanford is in an unusual situation.  For years Stanford only had recruits that really, really wanted to come to Stanford.  Not Stanford Football, Stanford University.

I suspect right now there are players on the team that certainly liked the idea of Stanford University, but also selected Stanford because of Stanford Football.  Why Stanford Football?  You know...bowl games, great coaching staff, new facilities, etc.

And those individuals may decide that the NFL is worth deferring the Stanford degree by a year or two.

I think the NFL has advisers that will even assess talent for players that might players down in the lower rounds.

Peat seems like a first round pick.  Why run the risk of some out of shape DL from another program landing on your leg next season?
The others are less clear cut for me, but I do think using the historical trends are flawed as the state of the program and the talent of the players are simply outside of the historical norms.

Re: Looking ahead - CTcard - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 09:04 AM)BobK link Wrote:Peat 90% gone.
Cajuste 75% gone
Carter 60% gone all my guesses.

So which 3 games will Cajuste play in next year? [Or I guess 1 for Peat or 5 for Carter?]
[emoticon]

Either Carter or Peat leaving would break a long streak (since Teyo Johnson?) of no Stanford player leaving before going through their academic-senior year. I don't know either personally so have no idea what they wish to do. I would think both would have being a reasonably high NFL draft pick as an option.

Cajuste would seem to be a lower draft pick, but is an academic senior.

(12-01-2014, 07:58 AM)gocard14 link Wrote:OL: If Peat stays the Oline should be improved next year based on the dramatic improvement we've seen over the last 3-4 weeks of this year. (up)

Even if Peat leaves I think the Oline should be improved next year. Four returning starters is WAY better than four starters who need replacing. More than any other unit, the Oline really needs to know each other and work as a group - which was a significant problem this year.

I wonder what the coaching staff thinks of Casey Tucker. They seemed very high on him early, but I think he hasn't played since the third week of the season or so. It would seem this was not a great redshirt burning.


(12-01-2014, 07:58 AM)gocard14 link Wrote:LB: We lose Vaughters and Tarpley, but have a lot of talent waiting to increase rotation time including Kalambayi, davis, palma, alfieri, etc. We have shown ourselves to be quite adept at replacing stud linebackers and I don't forsee a major problem here. (=)

DB: Assuming Carter stays and Lyons gets a 5th year from the NCAA, we lose Richards (big loss), and Olugbode. We will need Whitfield and others to step forward, but should still have an excellent DB corps. (down)

I might switch those two ratings, depending on who is back.

We have three returning LBers who have played a lot - Martinez, Anderson, Kalambayi; and two other who have played a bit, Palma and Davis, though I think heavily weighted to garbage time. There is potential there, but guys who either haven't played or haven't played much will have to emerge.

I thought the dbs were much improved this year, though there were a few cases of hideously blown coverages and Hoffpauir is a little slow for many of the guys he is asked to cover. IF Carter and Lyons return, we lose only 1 starter and 1 backup off the four-position depth chart. That is pretty good, and we have heard some encouraging things about the young guys (much from Hulk). Add in a second season of coaching from Akina and I see the possibility of good improvement here.

The bigger issue on defense is similar to last year's. How much were Anderson, Parry, Tarpley, Vaughters, and Richards really the heart of the defense? Or rather, how much are the next guys ready to be that heart?
At least the coaching track record here has been solid.

(12-01-2014, 08:54 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:1.  Can we run between the tackles?  Can we present a running threat on 3rd and 4?  Can we regularly convert on 3rd and 2?  Christian probably isn't the answer, even with 8-10 more good pounds.  Chris Warren may have to be--assuming we get him--because Brandon Scarlett--assuming him--won't be recovered and built up enough to play power back.

I think that the size of the RB has been over-emphasized on the running between the tackles question. One evidence for that is Stanford actually ran fairly well between the tackles this year, particularly in the last several games, even though we didn't do it very much compared to the past half-dozen years. We do need a RB who can break some tackles, which Wright seemed to start to do late. I agree that doesn't seem to be quite McCaffrey's strength, though he's not particularly small. On the other hand, he hasn't been asked to do so often. 

Re: Looking ahead - washingtonismoney - 12-01-2014

DL is by far the biggest personnel question. We've been burned by insufficient depth the past two years but buoyed by star players. Next year we might have neither.

Re: Looking ahead - CrazedZooChimp - 12-01-2014

Other than the DL, which is obviously being hit the hard (although I'm not sure why gocard14 thinks Shittu is injury prone, I don't think he's lost any more games to injury than our other DL have over the past few years.  Remember that both Goose and Parry were hurt last year, and Parry missed games this year), I think I'm most worried about the DBs.  This is mostly an issue if Carter and Hoffpauir (baseball) are gone.  We'll be returning only 2 of the 6 DBs who saw regular action (Lyons and Harris, and that assumes they'll both take their 5th years).  Losing 3/4 starters would (and basically our three safeties) would be bad.  I am crossing my fingers that Hoffpauir decides he likes hitting people more than hitting baseballs, and that Carter doesn't break the trend of players staying for four years.

Re: Looking ahead - needle - 12-01-2014

Am I the only one worried about Garnett leaving?

Re: Looking ahead - Hurlburt88 - 12-01-2014

NO, I am also a bit worried about Garnett.  No one is talking about him, but I do think it is a possibility--but not a probability--that he will leave. 

Re: Looking ahead - kuz - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 03:32 PM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:Other than the DL, which is obviously being hit the hard (although I'm not sure why gocard14 thinks Shittu is injury prone, I don't think he's lost any more games to injury than our other DL have over the past few years.  Remember that both Goose and Parry were hurt last year, and Parry missed games this year), I think I'm most worried about the DBs.  This is mostly an issue if Carter and Hoffpauir (baseball) are gone.  We'll be returning only 2 of the 6 DBs who saw regular action (Lyons and Harris, and that assumes they'll both take their 5th years).  Losing 3/4 starters would (and basically our three safeties) would be bad.  I am crossing my fingers that Hoffpauir decides he likes hitting people more than hitting baseballs, and that Carter doesn't break the trend of players staying for four years.
Terrence Alexander was getting a lot of playing time near the end of the season. While it's highly unlikely, the team could well be better off if he were a starting CB next year and Lyons moves to safety.

(12-01-2014, 03:59 PM)needle link Wrote:Am I the only one worried about Garnett leaving?
I got the impression from Garnett's recruitement that education was extremely important to him, so I doubt he leaves without getting his degree. But stranger things have happened.

Re: Looking ahead - CTcard - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 08:11 PM)kuz link Wrote:Terrence Alexander was getting a lot of playing time near the end of the season. While it's highly unlikely, the team could well be better off if he were a starting CB next year and Lyons moves to safety.

I don't know myself, but Hulk has claimed that is exactly the plan.

Re: Looking ahead - CrazedZooChimp - 12-01-2014

(12-01-2014, 08:33 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=kuz link=topic=11257.msg107182#msg107182 date=1417489890]
Terrence Alexander was getting a lot of playing time near the end of the season. While it's highly unlikely, the team could well be better off if he were a starting CB next year and Lyons moves to safety.

I don't know myself, but Hulk has claimed that is exactly the plan.
[/quote]

And I think that's probably a good call, but still doesn't give me confidence that our DBs won't be a potential issue next year.  I wonder if Harris sticks around, and if continues to play corner or moves to safety as well (which might heavily depend on whether Hoff/Carter leave).

Re: Looking ahead - Hulk01 - 12-02-2014

I'm not certain--and no one is yet--that Lyons will move to safety.  There are good reasons foro it, however; it's his more natural position and best hope for an NFL career.  Harris and Alexander are better at covering and neither can play safety. 

Kodi could be very good at the other starting safety.

My best is lots of nickel, particularly against teams without a good inside running game.  Kevin Anderson on the front three, Zach slides up to OLB/slot corner, with our #3 safety (perhaps Brandon Simmons, maybe Alameen Murphy) takes the field.  And it's a dream to think Lane Veach can come along and, at least in passing situations, give us the equivalent of a 6'9" tall wall (6'6" tall, but with a 7' wingspan) on the edge.  He doesn't even have to beat the tackle to poss a problem for a QB looking to his side. 

Re: Looking ahead - donkey687 - 12-02-2014

Below is my ranking of players that are hardest to replace in order.  Recruiting Peat, Carter and Cajuste to stay would be brobdingnagian in my opinion.

1) Parry- very little DL experience remaining
2) Peat- no experienced OT to fill this is a critical position
3) Henry Anderson- very little DL experience remaining
4) Jordan Richards- he is really good. Some youngsters could step up.
5) Alex Carter- he is really good. Great cover and great tackler.
6) Ty Montgomery- he is really good but didn't produce that much this year unfortunately
7) Vaughters- he had a great year, but we have good LB depth
8) Tarpley- experience will be missed but we have good LB depth
9) Cajuste- we need him next year
10) Olugbude- replacement should be just as good
11) Hoffpaur- replacement should be just as good
12) Williamson- replacement should be almost as good
13) Rhyne- replacement should be almost as good

Re: Looking ahead - OutsiderFan - 12-02-2014

(12-02-2014, 10:04 AM)donkey687 link Wrote:Below is my ranking of players that are hardest to replace in order.  Recruiting Peat, Carter and Cajuste to stay would be of exceedingly large proportions in my opinion.

1) Parry- very little DL experience remaining
2) Peat- no experienced OT to fill this is a critical position
3) Henry Anderson- very little DL experience remaining
4) Jordan Richards- he is really good. Some youngsters could step up.
5) Alex Carter- he is really good. Great cover and great tackler.
6) Ty Montgomery- he is really good but didn't produce that much this year unfortunately
7) Vaughters- he had a great year, but we have good LB depth
8) Tarpley- experience will be missed but we have good LB depth
9) Cajuste- we need him next year
10) Olugbude- replacement should be just as good
11) Hoffpaur- replacement should be just as good
12) Williamson- replacement should be almost as good
13) Rhyne- replacement should be almost as good

Your list excludes Hogan.

Re: Looking ahead - CrazedZooChimp - 12-02-2014

(12-02-2014, 10:04 AM)donkey687 link Wrote:Below is my ranking of players that are hardest to replace in order.  Recruiting Peat, Carter and Cajuste to stay would be of exceedingly large proportions in my opinion.

1) Parry- very little DL experience remaining
2) Peat- no experienced OT to fill this is a critical position
3) Henry Anderson- very little DL experience remaining
4) Jordan Richards- he is really good. Some youngsters could step up.
5) Alex Carter- he is really good. Great cover and great tackler.
6) Ty Montgomery- he is really good but didn't produce that much this year unfortunately
7) Vaughters- he had a great year, but we have good LB depth
8) Tarpley- experience will be missed but we have good LB depth
9) Cajuste- we need him next year
10) Olugbude- replacement should be just as good
11) Hoffpaur- replacement should be just as good
12) Williamson- replacement should be almost as good
13) Rhyne- replacement should be almost as good

You're putting a lot of faith in RS Frosh safeties.  Or underrating how good (at least against the run) Hoffpauir is...

Re: Looking ahead - Hulk01 - 12-02-2014

Murphy moves to LT, RT either Austin or Tucker. 

More two tight end sets, with Hooper and Cotton or Schultz, the latter of whom could be a big story.,

Lyons moves to safety, Whitfield mans the other spot if Hoffpauir opts for MLB and Brandon Simmons doesn't break out and steal the job.

Shittu plays the nose in the nickel, which we use far more often, particularly against the pass-dependent teams without a inside running back.

We pray Solly Thomas is ready to go and that Lohn or Watkins can rotate in to spell the top three DLs.

Alameen Murphy, or perhaps the Hoffpauiresqe Sean Barton, as the slot corner/nickel back.  Excited to see what they might do.

Alexander and Harris man the corners.



Re: Looking ahead - donkey687 - 12-02-2014

My list excludes Hogan because I believe Hogan is coming back. Peat, Carter and Cajuste are higher risk for leaving imo. If Hogan were to leave, I would definitely put him in the top 6 of that list and possibly even number 1.  We hope we have an adequate or even better replacement, but we really don't know and a small difference in a QB can lead to a big difference in overall performance.

Clearly, the two places where the team lacks depth the most is the entire DL and OT if Peat leaves.

I may undervalue Hoffpauir in that list. I am a fan of his and he is a great tackler, but he also isn't the best nickel against the spread in passing situations so I am hopeful that the current frosh who are redshirting, Lloyd and Whitfield will round out the safety positions equally to Hoffpauir and Olugbude.  Our secondary coach turns everyone into NFL players according to his bio so next man up.