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From the Foretelling the Futre Department - CTcard - 04-10-2015

The ND AD has apparently been randomly musing about the demise of college football as we know it and what the future might bring. On the one hand, it seems rather off the cuff. On the other hand there are some interesting bits in there from our point of view. It is pretty clear that the generic archetype for a university with Div 1 sports that maintains an academic focus is our dear Alma Mater (or rooting interest as the case may be).

The article
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25112658/notre-dame-ad-has-a-vision-of-two-college-athletic-associations

His thesis is that FBS football will break into two separate entities - which of course it really already is but he is talking about a somewhat different breakdown. One division will be pro/semi-pro football attached loosely to the universities. The other will maintain true amateurism.

Quote:“Forget the economics, the cultural divide in college athletics is getting too big,” Swarbrick said.
...
“The Oregon and Stanford economic models are similar. Their approach to sports couldn't be more different.”

Oregon is a state school with a mission to provide a practical education accessible to all. Stanford is a private research institution with a mission is to offer an elite broad-based education.

They both play in the Pac-12. In Swarbrick's future vision, they would be affiliated with different governing bodies.

Quote:“Most athletic budgets are somewhere around the 3-8 percent range” of the total university budget, according to Swarbrick. “The Stanfords of the world are not going to allow that 4 percent business unit [to] take them places they don't want to be.”

There is a sidebar where somebody has grouped the current FBS teams into the two separate proposed organizations. The semi-pro side includes most of the Power 5 conference teams and a sprinkling of others. The true amateurs is smaller and mostly the less notable football schools. The exceptions in the latter include: Stanford, Notre Dame, Cal, Northwesterm, Vanderbilt, Duke, UVa, Wake Forest, BC. [A good fraction of the ACC in there.]

p.s. That isn't quite Oregon's academic mission. It is a state flagship university, which are not intended to be open to all.

Armageddon - Redrum - 04-10-2015

It's a fool's mission to believe things can and will go on forever.  The college football cash machine might be Exhibit A. 

On the face of it, Stanford might stand to do well on the field against the remaining "FCAA" teams,  but the fact is with the dismantling of the P12, and more meager television revenue,  it's hard seeing the Stanford of the Harbaugh/Shaw era continuing.  I'm not against bashing Vandy and Northwestern every year, but most likely only Notre Dame would be a revenue generator.*  What's worse...Stanford would become the not-very-challenging early-season warm-up game for our former conference partners.  I'm really lookin' forward to seeing the inside of a bodybag for USC and UCLA every year.  Kal would be in a terrible bind.  They are in deeeep debt for the their stadium and simply have to generate revenues. No choice short of default.  Playing San Jose St.,  Wyoming and Fresno ain't gonna cut it for them. 

This feels like it would be a repeat of Stanford's unilateral decision to play rugby instead of American football, back in the early 1900's.

* On second thought, it'll be great fun watching Notre Dame pretzel itself trying to reconcile it's vision of itself as not-sold-out to the football revenue drug  with its massive program revenue.  I'm betting that after deep, prayerful consideration of its core mission (and 30 million screaming, weeping, threatening e-mails)  Notre Dame opts to play with the big boys.

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - Spiny_Norman - 04-10-2015

CTCard, the article did not single out any sport specifically.  But Swarbrick's comments do seem to be inspired by the situation in college football.  Still, the NCAA currently governs ALL sports.  Could a new "semi-pro" association exist if it only covered football?  Would it govern all sports? 

I'll be curious to see where the pressure comes from that might lead to change in the current NCAA structure.  Will it come from the schools themselves? From the courts?

I do plan to talk to Muir about this at the Coach's Reception in LA on April 23.  Would like his take on the likelihood of change in the next few years and what that might mean for Stanford.

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - OutsiderFan - 04-10-2015

Like any addict, the schools playing major football are going to have a choice.  They can either continue trying to get a bigger and bigger cash fix (and all the problems that come with more dependency), or they can go into re-hab and try to kick their habit by re-committing colleges and universities to have only qualified athletes take scholarships to play sports.

There simply must be a model developed - like professional hockey - where the college plays a role, but there is an established minor league system for developing talent.  Look at Premier Prep, the new basketball academy in Napa that is now the home of the #1 hoops recruit in the country for I think it's 2017.  The best athletes are going to specialized high school programs, not traditional high schools, to maximize their training in their sport of choice.  The next logical step is for those academies to form minor leagues rather than send kids off to college for one or two years.

But it all starts with colleges and universities willing to quite their addiction to big-time sports money to give the breathing room needed for minor leagues to develop.






That should be interesting - Redrum - 04-10-2015

Quote:I do plan to talk to Muir about this at the Coach's Reception in LA on April 23.  Would like his take on the likelihood of change in the next few years and what that might mean for Stanford.

Cynicism about Muir seems pretty strong considering he really hasn't done anything except not crash this bus while he's driving.  The real hard core might say that if Muir can't see, understand and act on a basketball coaching situation right in front of his eyes,  then asking him to look into the future might not be very productive. 

But, by all means, DO ask.  It might focus his answer to mention and do a general description of the football divisions Swarbrick outlined.

And for Outsider Fan.  Of course there should be minor league football for players who have no serious interest in what college has to offer.  I will be scanning the skies for flying pigs when the NFL actually spends some of their $$$$bizzilions on a farm system.

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - CTcard - 04-10-2015

(04-10-2015, 10:33 AM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:CTCard, the article did not single out any sport specifically.  But Swarbrick's comments do seem to be inspired by the situation in college football.  Still, the NCAA currently governs ALL sports.  Could a new "semi-pro" association exist if it only covered football?  Would it govern all sports? 

I'll be curious to see where the pressure comes from that might lead to change in the current NCAA structure.  Will it come from the schools themselves? From the courts?

My comments above were mostly related to the observation that when the ND AD wanted to come up with an example of a school that maintains an academic focus for athletes while playing big time sports, he naturally came up with Stanford.

As to these bigger picture items, who knows?
It looks to me like Swarbrick was just waxing philosophical, he wasn't describing anything in the works or a specific plan.

Of course a semi-pro sports organization could exist if member institutions want it to. The NCAA can decide if it wants to let in teams for some sports only. I think there traditional stance has been you have to be in the NCAA for all sports your school offers and are sanctioned by the NCAA - but I would imagine tremendous pressure to change that. For that matter, I don't see any reason the NCAA couldn't just decree that a particular football division is semi-pro.


On the other hand, I don't think the pressure for semi-pro college sports is quite as large as journalists make it out to be. As I read the court decisions that have been made so far, they have been leaning toward minor changes leading to a trickle more money for commercial sports athletes, but going out of their way to keep the overall structure intact.

On other pressures - Lawmakers will bounce from issue to issue, but I think their primary motivation will be to keep good old State U competitive in whatever league exists. The schools themselves know they are stuck in a Catch-22 - most administrators want to wish the problems away and most ADs want to embrace the arms race with ... both arms. So, my first guess is that over a decade like period, we will only see minor cosmetic changes - a few more dollars to football and basketball players, a few more minor sports dropped, a few more schools dropping football that is somehow combined with others leaping into the game.



Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - Stymie - 04-11-2015

The general thought behind the CBS article is constructive, but the attempt to extrapolate this thought into the future is fatally flawed.

The day that Stanford football has a schedule which includes Ball State and Old Dominion is the day that I shift my allegiance to Roller Derby, yet again.....

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - fullmetal - 04-12-2015

Stymie, who's your league?

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - Stymie - 04-13-2015

(04-12-2015, 08:03 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:Stymie, who's your league?

Roller Derby or College Football?

Re: From the Foretelling the Futre Department - FarmBoy - 04-14-2015

Quote:Hard to believe that the Pac-12 doesn't include Roller Derby as a sport. The Bay Area Bombers, after all, practically invented the sport.

They could set up a track in the quad for the conference finals. Or perhaps just use the road around The Oval.