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Football schedule change - Spiny_Norman - 04-14-2015

In 2012, Stanford announced a home and home football series with Virginia
http://www.fbschedules.com/2012/05/virginia-stanford-schedule-2017-18-home-and-home-football-series/

Apparently, now there are "schedule conflicts" and the series is off. 
http://www.virginiasports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/041415aag.html

Virginia announced Indiana as a replacement.  No word from Stanford.  Stanford goes to Rice in 2017.  No other non-conference foes yet for 2018 other than ND.

Re: Football schedule change - CrazedZooChimp - 04-14-2015

Aww man, I was looking forward to a Virginia trip.  I wonder if the conflict is that Stanford looks to be staying a powerhouse...

Re: Football schedule change - Extra Point - 04-14-2015

Stanford now needs an opponent for 2016 and 2017, and two opponents for 2018. The number of schools that are available and interested for the next few years isn't great. I am concerned that Stanford may end up playing San Jose State again.

Re: Football schedule change - dabigv13 - 04-14-2015

Bummer...was looking forward to razzing my UVA friends, and Charlottesville is a nice place for a roadtrip.

Re: Football schedule change - Hank 91 - 04-14-2015

With the current playoff system, I'm less concerned about strength of schedule. Yes, Baylor fell victim to this only last season, but I think Stanford could survive a schedule with San Jose State. After all, S.O.S. only matters if we're contending for a spot in the playoffs, and I firmly believe that even a one-loss champion from the Pac-12 will ALWAYS get one of those four spots.

Re: Football schedule change - Spiny_Norman - 05-05-2015

Stanford replaces Virginia with San Diego State in 2017 and 2018.  Stanford will play at San Diego State on Sept. 16, 2017, with the Aztecs scheduled to visit Stanford Stadium on Sept. 1, 2018.

http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=210071911

Re: Football schedule change - yvonne - 05-05-2015

It could be a lot worse. MWC, bowling each of the past five years. Schools have been left with only FCS team options when another team bails on a series.

Re: Football schedule change - needle - 05-05-2015

I'd prefer two home games against SJS, but this is OK.

Re: Football schedule change - CrazedZooChimp - 05-05-2015

(05-05-2015, 11:13 AM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:Stanford replaces Virginia with San Diego State in 2017 and 2018.  Stanford will play at San Diego State on Sept. 16, 2017, with the Aztecs scheduled to visit Stanford Stadium on Sept. 1, 2018.

http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=210071911

I'll take it, decent team that most people at least out west know tends to be decent.  Plus a trip to San Diego wouldn't be so bad...

Re: Football schedule change - BostonCard - 05-05-2015

Well, the problem is that it is a classic no-win situation.  If we lose (and there is a low but non-zero probability), we'll have been beaten by a non-Big5 foe.  If we win, it will be expected and won't help our strength of schedule.

But San Diego is nice, and my parents are moving there, so I will have a place to stay when I road trip.

BC

Re: Football schedule change - Spiny_Norman - 05-05-2015

Stanford currently scheduled to play at Rice in 2017.  If Stanford plays at San Diego St as well, the schedule will only have 6 home games (5 conference games plus Notre Dame). 

Stanford still has a hole in the schedule in 2016 for an OOC opponent.  Only Rice and Notre Dame on the schedule right now.

Re: Football schedule change - Papa John - 05-05-2015

(05-05-2015, 01:21 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Well, the problem is that it is a classic no-win situation.  If we lose (and there is a low but non-zero probability), we'll have been beaten by a non-Big5 foe.  If we win, it will be expected and won't help our strength of schedule.
BC

I have no idea how good SDSU or Virginia will be in 2017-2018, but over the past five seasons consider SDSU's end-of-year Sagarin ratings versus Virginia's and Stanford's (SDSU/UVa/Stanford):

2010: 34/87/2
2011: 70/71/7
2012: 66/87/9
2013: 78/106/5
2014: 91/51/18

So yeah, SDSU is not a Power 5 school, but recent past performance doesn't indicate that it will be a big hit on Stanford's strength of schedule, at least not in comparison to UVa.

I'm probably in the minority, but I've always liked the idea of Stanford playing one OOC game per season versus an FBS Cal State or Nevada team: Nevada-Reno, UNLV, SDSU, SJSU or Fresno State. I'd much prefer that over playing an FCS team such as UC Davis. I know that there are many reasons why that won't happen, but the Pac-12 is so spread out that it would be nice to build in some more regional rivalries for Stanford like the closer-spaced schools in the other Power 5 conferences have.

Re: Football schedule change - CrazedZooChimp - 05-05-2015

(05-05-2015, 01:42 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:Stanford currently scheduled to play at Rice in 2017.  If Stanford plays at San Diego St as well, the schedule will only have 6 home games (5 conference games plus the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends). 

Stanford still has a hole in the schedule in 2016 for an OOC opponent.  Only Rice and the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends on the schedule right now.

6 home games is not uncommon, it has happened almost every recent even year.  Perhaps they are just switching the 6 v 7 home game years from even to odd.

Re: Football schedule change - Spiny_Norman - 05-05-2015

(05-05-2015, 02:24 PM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=12029.msg117707#msg117707 date=1430858565]
Stanford currently scheduled to play at Rice in 2017.  If Stanford plays at San Diego St as well, the schedule will only have 6 home games (5 conference games plus the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends). 

Stanford still has a hole in the schedule in 2016 for an OOC opponent.  Only Rice and the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends on the schedule right now.

6 home games is not uncommon, it has happened almost every recent even year.  Perhaps they are just switching the 6 v 7 home game years from even to odd.
[/quote]

The convention has been 7 home games in odd years and 6 in even years.  This has been predicated on playing 2 OOC home games each year.  It is rare for Stanford to play 2 away OOC games in a season.  Looking back to 2000, it has happened only twice.  In 2002 Stanford went to BC and ND.  In 2008 Stanford went to TCU and ND.  In both seasons, Stanford only played 5 home games.  I expect the AD to do everything to avoid that situation.  Stanford must be looking for a home game for 2016. 

Re: Football schedule change - CTcard - 05-05-2015

(05-05-2015, 04:09 PM)garvin link Wrote:Have we ever figured out what went wrong with the Virginia deal?

Officially it was canceled for scheduling conflicts.

UVa has replaced Stanford with Indiana, and Stanford has subbed in San Diego State. Given that the respective games are scheduled to be on different weekends I suppose it's possible an actual conflict existed. However, given that Stanford has no games currently scheduled for the dates UVa is playing Indiana (as far as I know anyway), the rumors that the conflict was with UVa's prospects for winning might have some legs.

Re: Football schedule change - Stymie - 05-06-2015

UVA people are reasonably smart.  Why bring a powerhouse into their den just to get thumped and lose street cred with their potential local recruits?  They've already lost Carter and Burns etc.  to us and I think they just chickened out.

Re: Football schedule change - JohnR34231 - 05-06-2015

Hopefully UVA is about to lose Clark Yarborough to us, who is supposed to announce on the 21st.

Re: Football schedule change - raja - 05-06-2015

(05-05-2015, 03:52 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:[quote author=CrazedZooChimp link=topic=12029.msg117716#msg117716 date=1430861080]
[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=12029.msg117707#msg117707 date=1430858565]
Stanford currently scheduled to play at Rice in 2017.  If Stanford plays at San Diego St as well, the schedule will only have 6 home games (5 conference games plus the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends). 

Stanford still has a hole in the schedule in 2016 for an OOC opponent.  Only Rice and the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends on the schedule right now.

6 home games is not uncommon, it has happened almost every recent even year.  Perhaps they are just switching the 6 v 7 home game years from even to odd.
[/quote]

The convention has been 7 home games in odd years and 6 in even years.  This has been predicated on playing 2 OOC home games each year.  It is rare for Stanford to play 2 away OOC games in a season.  Looking back to 2000, it has happened only twice.  In 2002 Stanford went to BC and ND.  In 2008 Stanford went to TCU and ND.  In both seasons, Stanford only played 5 home games.  I expect the AD to do everything to avoid that situation.  Stanford must be looking for a home game for 2016.
[/quote]

Good points, Spiny.  One of the things I've noticed with a lot of the recent announcements (BYU, Northwestern, TCU, Vanderbilt, UCF, UVA/SDSt, Rice, etc.) is that there seems to be a fundamental shift in how the AD is scheduling football.

Traditionally we have had an Easy/Medium/Hard out-of-conference schedule; Easy would be a permanent home game against lower tier opponents (usually San Jose St. -> sometimes UCDavis or Sac St. etc.), Medium would be a home-and-home against a mid-tier opponent, usually a below-average Power5 team that should be a win, but scheduled as a home-and-home; and Hard was usually Notre Dame, also a home-and-home against a nationally-recognized football power.

Most of the recent announcements have forgone the Easy and we are scheduling ourselves purely with home-and-home games against mid-tier opponents or better.  Even if not a Power 5 school (BYU, Rice, SDSt.), we are willing to do a home-and-home to get more attractive higher-tier matchups.

The corollary to this is that it seems to me that we are aiming for a future in which instead of the traditional even/odd year split of 6/7 home games, we will instead aim to have 6 home games yearly, of a slightly higher quality than before.

This seems to be a deliberate choice by the AD, and makes some sense.  The early-season September home date before students are here against a lower tier opponent (SJSt, UCDavis, Sac St) doesn't bring a whole lot of revenue/TV/gate anyways, and the Bay Area and Stanford fanbase seems willing to be more interested in playing better opponents as opposed to the factory school model of paying to see your team crush a Little Sisters of the Poor and walk out happy to have paid to have seen it.

There are side benefits as well - perhaps higher TV ratings with the higher-order SOS, and better positioning in a world where the CFB Playoff actually gives weight to strong SOS, as well.

But it is a marked change, and it's interesting.

- MC

P.S. I use http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/pac-10/stanford-cardinal.php to keep track of changes.  Looking at schedules like 2015, 2017, and 2019 and I see the marked differences.  Not many (any?) schools in the country are willing to play 9 conference games and then schedule on top of that at Northwester/UCF/Notre Dame or at Rice/at SDSt/Notre Dame or Northwestern/at UCF/Notre Dame as your 3 out-of-conference opponents.  The SOS is eyebrow-raising.