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OT: The deflategate report - BostonCard - 05-06-2015

http://a.espncdn.com/pdf/2015/0506/PatriotsWellsReport.pdf

Quote:For the reasons described in this Report, and after a comprehensive investigation, we have concluded that, in connection with the AFC Championship Game, it is more probable than not that New England Patriots personnel participated in violations of the Playing Rules and were involved in a deliberate effort to circumvent the rules. In particular, we have concluded that it is more probable than not that Jim McNally (the Officials Locker Room attendant for the Patriots) and John Jastremski (an equipment assistant for the Patriots) participated in a deliberate effort to release air from Patriots game balls after the balls were examined by the referee. Based on the evidence, it also is our view that it is more probable than not that Tom Brady (the quarterback for the Patriots) was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities of McNally and Jastremski involving the release of air from Patriots game balls.

Emphasis mine.  And later...

Quote:We do not believe that the evidence establishes that any other Patriots personnel participated in or had knowledge of the violation of the Playing Rules or the deliberate effort to circumvent the rules described in this Report. In particular, we do not believe there was any wrongdoing or knowledge of wrongdoing by Patriots ownership, Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick or any other Patriots coach in the matters investigated. We also do not believe there was any wrongdoing or knowledge of wrongdoing by Patriots Head Equipment Manager Dave Schoenfeld.

BC

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Farm93 - 05-06-2015

Saw this earlier in the day.  If the Colts lost by 3-6 points this might have been noteworthy.

The Patriots tried to manipulate the equipment to improve their chances.  Yawn...
They probably didn't need to do it.  The mini scandal probably cost Brady millions in the offseason, but his wife is rich enough that it is not a big deal.  The Patriots under Belichick were already known to find creative ways to cheat, so this really is not new ground for this franchise.

Next season the Indianapolis Colts will just need to get the AFC Championship game in their dome to minimize the worries related to secretly placed video cameras, snow plows clearing the way for FG attempts, and under inflated balls for better cold weather grip.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Hulk01 - 05-06-2015

Kraft's righteous indignation over the report, in the face of a brobdingnagian trout being found in the Patriot's milk, has turned me into a full-time Patriot hater. 

That, and his lack of awarness white collars on non-white shirts have not been cool since 2002.  Assuming they were less than pretentious then, of course, which they were not.

His tanning booth addiction adds to my loathing.





Re: OT: The deflategate report - BostonCard - 05-06-2015

It didn't make an iota of difference in the Indi game (though, it might have made a difference in the Baltimore game where there is no proof one way or another that they deflated balls, in which case Indi might have played Harbaugh the Elder).

But I suspect it will have implications for New England going forward, including, potentially loss of draft picks or a suspension for Brady.  We will see.

BC

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Rally - 05-06-2015

(05-06-2015, 05:16 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:It didn't make an iota of difference in the Indi game (though, it might have made a difference in the Baltimore game where there is no proof one way or another that they deflated balls, in which case Indi might have played Harbaugh the Elder).

But I suspect it will have implications for New England going forward, including, potentially loss of draft picks or a suspension for Brady.  We will see.

BC

No way they're suspending Brady over this.  Even a fine will be appealed, and should be based on the report.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - ca245 - 05-06-2015

If Kraft is so disbelieving of the probative value of the evidence uncovered by Wells, does he also believe the evidence was insufficient to convict Aaron Hernandez? After all, nobody testified he saw AH shoot the victim.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - CTcard - 05-07-2015

(05-07-2015, 05:18 AM)garvin link Wrote:Cheating is still cheating, whether it affects the outcome of the game or not. 

While I certainly agree, I have kind of wondered about why there is a rule as to the required air pressure in a football. If the football can be gripped/thrown better at a lower pressure - why isn't that allowed?

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Hulk01 - 05-07-2015

I'm with Garvin.  I loathe Kraft.  He manages to be less likable than Bellupchuck, a feat all its own.

And really, the NFL should look back to the season when the then-Patriot receiver Wes Welker magically went from having the worst hands in football to among the best.  It happened literally overnight--or over one off season.  And I seem to recall it coincided with that dates when they say Brady started asking for softer footballs.  For a receiver with harder hands, a softer football is the ideal solution.

I love the Colts and thought they got mangled, start to finish.  But screw that.  And screw Kraft et al--royally.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Bruce Wang - 05-07-2015

http://southpark.cc.com/clips/165712/how-do-i-reach-these-kids

Goodell will base the punishment on the balance he wants to strike between his friendship with Kraft and Kraft's power against the angry mob of owners and fans.  My guess is a 4 game suspension for that Skunkbear and a loss of 1st round pick.

I wonder if that Skunkbear's absence from the White House was because he got put on double secret probation.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 05-07-2015

If any of you personally know Patriots fans, or frequent sports forums where they happen to be, you'll know they have been exceedingly intolerable throughout this whole ordeal.  When this issue first surface I was very "meh" about it, but as this has unfolded I've found myself hoping Wells would throw Brady under the bus just to so they shut up.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - FarmBoy - 05-07-2015

The "it didn't affect the outcome of the game" meme is sad. Cheating is okay, as long as it doesn't matter? Based on all evidence, this was Brady's MO. If he did it against the Colts, of course he did it in every game he could. Did a deflated ball help him beat the Ravens? Did a deflated ball allow them to win games on the margin to get home field advantage? It casts suspicion on every performance.

Even if you don't think the information provided in the report is enough to cast doubt on the overall 2015 Patriots performance and playoffs, cheating during an AFC championship game should result in a brobdingnagian penalty. As garvin said, suppose they're using a legal ball, maybe they have a few more stalled drives that give the Colts better field position, leading to a couple more scores. The Colts are a very different team playing ahead or in a tie than playing from behind. The 2nd half game plan is different if the score is different. But we'll never know the outcome, because the Pats cheated.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - stupac2 - 05-07-2015

Of course I'm going to get piled on for this, but I don't think this report actually shows that much.

First, about Brady's role in the whole ordeal, there's really no evidence that he wanted anyone to do anything against the rules. He clearly wanted the balls softer, but when they were apparently as high as 16 PSI for some games (which, btw, is illegally high), why do we automatically assume that means he wanted them below 12.5? Everything in there is perfectly consistent with Brady wanting the balls at the legal minimum.

Second, a lot of the science in the report is really bad. Which isn't surprising, because the firm that produced the report has a very consistent bias of finding the results its clients want, including things like second-hand smoke not causing cancer. That's the kind of firm you want to pin your science on? Ooookay. But the procedure for testing the wet balls was inane, especially in light of other firms that don't have a history of convenient findings saw that everything was fine.

Thirdly, the whole idea that something like half a PSI matters is inane. If that were true then why don't teams who like their balls higher (like the Packers and apparently the Colts) have higher fumble/drop rates? If you think balls that are filled to around 12 (where the report says the Patriots balls were) are a big enough advantage over balls filled to 12.5 to be noticeable, and the Colts are filling their balls to 13.0, then why don't they have brobdingnagian fumble problems? Or with Rodgers saying he wants his balls above the legal maximum, shouldn't the Packers be fumbling like mad? It just doesn't make sense.

As for Kraft, the report entirely exculpates him and everyone else in the team management. What do you want him to say?


Finally, every time someone says "____ fans are the worst" or similar they show their colors as an ignorant buffoon. If this sort of charge were being leveled against Stanford half the people in here would be going insane, so don't act self-righteous.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - OutsiderFan - 05-07-2015

The NFL is ultimately at fault.  But, just because a party is at fault, it doesn't mean they are guilty of being negligent or deserve heavy criticism.

Last week I pulled into a gas station in Hartford seeking to clean a windshield.  When I arrived, there were no squeegees.  So I walked into the store and asked if they had any.  The guy said there weren't because they get stolen.  They replaced them a couple times but then just gave up on providing them because they were always stolen. 

The owner of the place could have come down on the manager for wasting money on squeegees, but how on Earth was anyone to think that people would steal them with impunity?  Until it happens, you don't know it could.  Criticism by hindsight really bothers me.  Sometimes things happen that can't predicted.  And we can't protect ourselves from every freaking thing that might go awry.

If the NFL thinks football inflation is important, it should have a secure procedure and standards for making sure the balls are uniform in whatever aspects are important.  This incident is the perfect opportunity for the NFL to say "we can't prove anything, but it is a distinct possibility the footballs were altered.  We are taking steps to make sure it won't happen again."

To me, the NFL being lax about football attributes is something that could have been known about a lot more than soon to be stolen squeegees at a gas station.  I mean I'm pretty sure everyone who has had their own footballs, basketballs, volleyballs, soccer or polo balls, have inflated them to where they were comfortable with them.  So how important is it really, given how obvious this reality seems to be?  Apparently the NFL officials knew about the balls and let the Patriots use them anyway.  Would they have allowed it if this provided any sort of competitive advantage?

Did Brady cheat? Maybe by the letter of what cheating is, but did he gain a competitive advantage?  The evidence suggests not.  Colin Cowherd nailed it on why Brady might have not been fully open with what he knew:  he didn't want to risk being suspended from the Super Bowl.  To me, this is like if you have a winning lotto ticket, were asked if you broke the speed limit driving to get your check - in some manner that suggested you might not be given your winnings if you did - and saying you didn't, only to find someone had some data suggesting you did.  Tempest, meet teapot. It just isn't that big of a deal, when weighing all the factors, IMO.

It becomes a big deal if it was found there was a consistent altering of balls over a long period of time, that enabled the Patriots to say fumble the ball at a much lower rate than the competition.  Now, apparently there is a stat available that shows the Patriots have in fact fumbled the ball at a significantly lower rate than any other team that plays in temps below 40, but it is now impossible to assess what happened with the balls in these other games.  There is blame to go around lots of places on this issue of deflated balls.  So just fix the loophole and move on without trying to put a head on a pike.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - FarmBoy - 05-07-2015

Quote:Finally, every time someone says "____ fans are the worst" or similar they show their colors as an ignorant buffoon.

True, except if the "_____" is filled with U.SC. Then the speaker clearly has insight and knowledge of the truth. But in my time in NE, I have found Pats fans to be particularly dickish. And I felt that way long before Luck went to the Colts.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - 97fan - 05-07-2015

(05-07-2015, 08:51 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Did Brady cheat? Maybe by the letter of what cheating is, but did he gain a competitive advantage?  The evidence suggests not. 

What evidence are you referring to? I'd say the evidence suggests that Brady at least believed he was gaining a competitive advantage, or he wouldn't have gone to the lengths he went to ensure the balls were deflated.


Re: OT: The deflategate report - Mick - 05-07-2015

(05-07-2015, 10:56 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:
Quote:Finally, every time someone says "____ fans are the worst" or similar they show their colors as an ignorant buffoon.

True, except if the "_____" is filled with U.SC. Then the speaker clearly has insight and knowledge of the truth. But in my time in NE, I have found Pats fans to be particularly dickish. And I felt that way long before Luck went to the Colts.

Same applies to local geographies with respect to youth sports.  There's always one geography that is just nuts.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - OutsiderFan - 05-07-2015

(05-07-2015, 11:09 AM)97fan link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=12103.msg117851#msg117851 date=1431013901]
Did Brady cheat? Maybe by the letter of what cheating is, but did he gain a competitive advantage?  The evidence suggests not. 

What evidence are you referring to? [/quote]

Apparently, Brady performed better with the undefeated balls than the deflated ones.  I think it's more about comfort than trying to gain a competitive edge by cheating.  Again, when you pump up your own football, aren't you thinking about what feels best in your hand?  If different schools can have their own footballs in college, I guarantee they aren't all inflated to the same pressure for each given team.

Re: OT: The deflategate report - Rally - 05-07-2015

(05-07-2015, 12:29 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:[quote author=97fan link=topic=12103.msg117859#msg117859 date=1431022192]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=12103.msg117851#msg117851 date=1431013901]
Did Brady cheat? Maybe by the letter of what cheating is, but did he gain a competitive advantage?  The evidence suggests not. 

What evidence are you referring to? [/quote]

Apparently, Brady performed better with the undefeated balls than the deflated ones.  I think it's more about comfort than trying to gain a competitive edge by cheating.  Again, when you pump up your own football, aren't you thinking about what feels best in your hand?  If different schools can have their own footballs in college, I guarantee they aren't all inflated to the same pressure for each given team.
[/quote]

"Brady performed better with the undefeated balls than the deflated ones."  I would, too :)

Re: OT: The deflategate report - CornFed - 05-07-2015

"Brady performed better with the undefeated balls than the deflated ones"



Isn't that tautological?

Re: OT: The deflategate report - BostonCard - 05-07-2015

A couple of comments:

re: whether rules governing inflation should be rules at all

It's a good point but irrelevant to the discussion.  There is a rule, and employees of the Patriots ("more likely than not") circumvented it.  Rules for a game are arbitrary, and sometimes aspects of the game are standardized and sometimes not.  For example, the outfield fences in a baseball stadium vary from park to park, and MLB teams set them based on a variety of reasons: historical, cartographical (for example, if there is a street behind one outfield and the fences cannot be made any longer), or competitive advantage (some teams want to have hitters parks, others want parks that favor left hand batters, etc.).  Other aspects of the game, such as the distance between bases and the height of the mound are tightly regulated; there's no reason that MLB couldn't say that the height of the baseball mound could be set under the team's discretion between, say, 6 inches, and 18 inches (I think the standard is 10).  The NFL has decided that it wants its footballs within a certain range, but the competition committee could change that.  In any case, it is neither here nor there, the rule exists, and the Patriots didn't just run afoul of it, they went to some lengths to circumvent it.

Regarding Brady's role in the deal

While there is no absolute proof of it, the text messages are pretty damning.  Brady was apparently giving the locker room attendant signed footballs and shoes, apparently in exchange for ensuring that the balls were underinflated.  While it is possible that Brady was just doing it to help out the little guys who make sure everything runs smoothly, there definitely appeared to be a quid pro quo going on.  If it was just to ensure that the balls were on the low side of the normal range, then there probably would have been no need for discussions about it, and the locker room attendant wouldn't have been a part of the discussion. It would have been as simple as Belicheck telling the equipment manager, "Make sure to inflate our balls to just above the lower limit", and there would have been no need to have a locker room attendant have anything to do with the balls other than watch over them.

Also damning but very circumstantial, the fact that Brady didn't make his text messages or phone records available to the NFL; when the records of the locker room attendant were analyzed there was a lot of contact in the immediate aftermath of the game.

Regarding the science of the report

Here's a good discussion (second half of the discussion):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

The science was very thorough, the statistical analysis was very robust, and of all the things in the report, that the Patriots balls were substantially underinflated beyond what you would expect by normal atmospheric conditions, seems the most compelling part.

Quote:andrewflowers (Andrew Flowers, quantitative editor): The report — especially the stat-sy appendix — went to great lengths to show that the difference in pressure between the Pats’ and Colts’ footballs was not due to chance.

benm (Benjamin Morris, sportswriter): I would say that the report hammers home the stats and science sides of this extremely well so as to head off any skepticism on those fronts, but they’re relatively easy cases to make. You don’t need a stats degree to look at that table and see that something is amiss.

Regarding whether the NFL was at fault
By analogy, you are saying that the gas station was at fault because their squeege's were stolen.  That seems wrong to me; it was wrong for the thiefs to lift them, and imperfect security does not justify their actions.  Moreover, when I heard the protocols the NFL goes through to test the balls and ensure the inflation, and the risk McNally took to circumvent the rules (and the risk he knew he was taking, as evidenced by the "stress" it was causing), I actually thought the NFL was pretty anal retentive about its ball inflation.  Could it have undertaken better security, like putting the balls under lock and key between when they are measured and when they are carted to the field?  Sure.  But it strikes me as a bit much to blame the NFL office for lax procedures.

Regarding whether the underinflated balls had an impact on the game
While you can come up with a hand waving argument to say it did, it's hard to believe it.  In fact, Brady did better with the balls adequately inflated in the second half of the game.  But again, that's not the point.  Brady was trying to get a competitive advantage and McNally and Jastremski (more likely than not) circumvented the rules to get it for him (more likely than not) with his knowledge.  If this had been an accidental thing or if they had done their best to take advantage of the rules for their benefit (see Belichick's substitution patterns in the game against the Ravens), I might not think it's the most sporty thing to do, but it's not illegal.  But this was deliberate; McNally and Jastremski (and more likely than not) Brady knew what they were doing, knew it was against the rules, and did it anyways.

One last point
The evidence in the report is not "beyond reasonable doubt".  In a court of law, it would certainly not be enough to convict Brady, and probably not be enough to convict McNally and Jastremski of anything beyond violating pre-game protocol.  The Wells report could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt than in the minute forty seconds that McNally was in the bathroom with the balls, that he took a needle and let some air out of them.  That being said, the NFL is not a court of law, and the term "more likely than not" carries a specific meaning in the NFL and is the standard used to apply sanctions.  What those sanctions will be, I don't know; for Brady it is possible that the loss of reputation is enough.  Part of me hopes the league brings down the hammer on Brady and the Pats because what they did, was so galling.  But it wasn't so material, so that's the balance that the league office will need to make.

BC