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Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - kuz - 06-23-2015

Apparent Michigan fans are worried about how many offers Harbaugh is throwing out that they've looked back at his recruiting strategies back at Stanford:
http://mgoblog.com/content/considerable-attrition-stanfords-2010-recruiting-class

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - TrumpCard - 06-23-2015

If you are a Michigan fan, you have good reason to worry.  Per Rivals, Harbaugh has 18 committed recruits plus 114 pending offers to uncommitted recruits.  That leaves more than 16 pending offers for every open spot (assuming a max class of 25).  By way of comparison, per Rivals, Stanford has 9 committed recruits and 48 pending offers to uncommitted recruits.  That's 3 pending offers for each open spot.  Stanford is on the low end for sure, but the numbers at Michigan just don't make any sense unless you expect to see some offers pulled. 

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - BostonCard - 06-23-2015

Although there were definitely some cases where Harbaugh gave recruits the cold shoulder, and a couple where recruits looked elsewhere, I seem to recall that most of the decomitments were because of admissions casualties.  Many of the cases where a recruit publicly backed off his commitment to "explore other options" it was because either test scores or grades were below the targets or they got an early negative word from admissions.

The blog quotes one article as saying

Quote:Stanford's elite admissions turned away a few prospects, and one could argue it was the school not Harbaugh that had final say, but a staff should have a pretty good feel from the onset which players have the grades to be admitted and those that do not. At Stanford, Harbaugh was willing to accept pledges from an abundance of borderline prospects.

Yes, it is true that Harbaugh accepted pledges from borderline (for Stanford) prospects.  Still, that this comes from a perspective where there are hard lines in the sand as for what is admittable, or where has a certain number of chips that they may cash in.  Admissions at Stanford is an inexact science in the best of cases, and in the early years Harbaugh had a little bit of difficulty coming to grips with the reality of the process.

BC

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - TrumpCard - 06-23-2015

(06-23-2015, 06:07 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Although there were definitely some cases where Harbaugh gave recruits the cold shoulder


A reputation is a hard thing to build and an easy thing to destroy.  A couple of jilted kids who had a strong case against Harbaugh were sufficient to call his reputation into question.  With the level of transparency in today's recruiting world, that's just reality. 


Now look at Michigan's recruiting board for the 2016 class.  114 offers for 7 spots.  It just reinforces what people already perceive to be the truth. 

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - Bruce Wang - 06-23-2015

How many of those offers are "commitable"?  Which by the way is something I don't understand.  How is that even an offer?

Along those lines - Mick - 06-23-2015

(06-23-2015, 06:52 PM)Publius link Wrote:How many of those offers are "commitable"?  Which by the way is something I don't understand.  How is that even an offer?

I have a marketing director who fields all of our requests to invest in large-scale events.  The events always come with many prominent names attached and in very small font next to the big name is the word "invited" in parentheses...meaning not committed.  So the event organizers use big names to sell the event to attendees and sponsors, crossing fingers and hoping that the big names show in sufficient numbers.

I suspect that may be what's going on here, "invited" versus "committed."  After all, he's just listing offers, including every kid who doesn't want to go to Michigan but that hasn't yet turned them down publicly. 

Apart from that, several of my Michigan alum friends are convinced that Harbaugh is going to try to "run" as many players off of the existing roster as possible because of a noticeably severe talent shortfall on the existing roster.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - washingtonismoney - 06-23-2015

Enh, Harbaugh's behavior during the class of 2010 was undeniably sketchy -- and one area in which David Shaw is a gigantic improvement.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 06-23-2015

I think I remember reading a while back that it's against Big Ten rules to oversign, but I could be mistaken.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - BostonCard - 06-23-2015

Yes, you can't oversign.  But that doesn't mean you can't overoffer or even get too many verbals, ad long as some of them don't sign.

BC

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - socalstanfan1 - 06-24-2015

Obviously, with the numbers being thrown out there, Harbaugh is over-offering. But we really can't be sure to what degree. Since coaches are prohibited from talking about recruiting, we have no idea how many of these "offer" are essentially dead, with the recruit letting Harbaugh know he is going elsewhere, or cannot make even the simplest admissions requirement.


But I'm sure that Harbauagh enjoys the buzz around his program, and loves the knowledge that serious recruits are looking at all those offers and wondering whether they should commit early to try to reserve a spot.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - CTcard - 06-24-2015

(06-23-2015, 10:03 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:I think I remember reading a while back that it's against Big Ten rules to oversign, but I could be mistaken.

As I understand their rule, there is no particular Big Ten injunction with respect to the annual 25 new scholarship limits (though they are subject to NCAA restrictions), there is however a limit with respect to the total 85 scholarship limit. A school can only sign 3 more players than they have open scholarships at the end of the previous season. However, I do not know how they define "end of the previous season" - which could produce wiggle room.

A description of the Big Ten rule is in this article (taken from another article in SI, that doesn't seem to be currently available):
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1932727-has-urban-meyers-sec-like-recruiting-pushed-big-ten-to-its-limits


If you look at the class of 2015 in the Big Ten, according to Scout OSU signed 27 and Purdue signed 28 - the rest 25 or below. Of course, there is the additional rule that those who sign up can start in spring semester and count against the previous year's allotment if there are any spaces available. Thus it is hard to tell without significant research exactly how a school manages over-signing.


Now THAT was really interesting - Redrum - 06-24-2015

Not sure of his analysis, but he did his homework rather than just bloviate.  One of the deficiencies I saw was a lack of credit or explanation about admissions at Stanford.  Conceptually seemed to treat it like a single event when for many/most applicants it is really a Long March.  Wheels turning within wheels.  And not just for football players.    Multiple test retakes and final grades hanging in the balance...with the writing on the wall for many applicants (athletes and just plain students) plain to see long before LOI or acceptance notice dates.   


I will say that how we treated QB Kain Kolter was, from what we know, an embarrassment.    Tate Nichols, who got similar treatment,  is an example where "living well is best revenge".  He blew up physically from a TE to an OT and a contributor at ND.  Given how our TEs and OLs were functioning at the same time, it's not a given that Nichols would have been a starter at Stanford, but he had size and, apparently, D1 talent.  There's just no accounting for Brandon Bourbon, who switched to Kansas on LOI day.  Ended up playing in spot roles for two head coaches, including the discombobulated Charlie Weis,  in one of the saddest programs in America.


But on the other hand,  114 offers for 7 spots.  AYFKM?  Was Harbs dropping offers from a helicopter like WKRP's Les Nessman ?

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - TrumpCard - 06-24-2015

114 offers for 7 spots is something that Devery Hamilton has probably considered.  I bet Hamilton also knows the competition he'd face for playing time.  Michigan already has 3 whale OLs committed and Michigan is in the top group for 5 more 4-star OLs besides Hamilton.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - teejers1 - 06-24-2015

I have little doubt that (i) the Michigan blog reporter did his homework, and (ii) Harbs engaged in (some) recruiting that rightfully harmed his (and Stanford's) rep.

The worst scenario is the one that is rarely reported on:  recruit with the grades and test scores comfortable within the range of "thumbs up" from Montag is given a verbal offer early in process; kid keeps up his grades, etc.; as recruiting continues and the kid is "over-recruited," suddenly admissions becomes a problem, or (as noted in the article), Stanford just stops communicating with the kid, obviously hoping the kid gets the message and hitches his wagon to some other horse.  That is complete chicken$hit, and unfortunately, I'm pretty sure it happened with at least a few kids during Harbaugh's tenure at Stanford.  And I expect the same at Michigan.

By all appearances, Shaw has been much better on this front.



Re: Along those lines - 2 for 2028 - 06-26-2015

(06-23-2015, 08:01 PM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=Publius link=topic=12298.msg121238#msg121238 date=1435110728]
How many of those offers are "commitable"?  Which by the way is something I don't understand.  How is that even an offer?

I have a marketing director who fields all of our requests to invest in large-scale events.  The events always come with many prominent names attached and in very small font next to the big name is the word "invited" in parentheses...meaning not committed.  So the event organizers use big names to sell the event to attendees and sponsors, crossing fingers and hoping that the big names show in sufficient numbers.

I suspect that may be what's going on here, "invited" versus "committed."  After all, he's just listing offers, including every kid who doesn't want to go to Michigan but that hasn't yet turned them down publicly. 

Apart from that, several of my Michigan alum friends are convinced that Harbaugh is going to try to "run" as many players off of the existing roster as possible because of a noticeably severe talent shortfall on the existing roster.
[/quote]

It appears that your friends' suspicions are correct:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13154115/ondre-pipkins-says-michigan-wolverines-coach-jim-harbaugh-staff-pressured-quit

Re: Along those lines - Mick - 06-26-2015

(06-26-2015, 10:37 AM)2 for 2028 link Wrote:[quote author=Mick link=topic=12298.msg121240#msg121240 date=1435114873]
[quote author=Publius link=topic=12298.msg121238#msg121238 date=1435110728]
How many of those offers are "commitable"?  Which by the way is something I don't understand.  How is that even an offer?

I have a marketing director who fields all of our requests to invest in large-scale events.  The events always come with many prominent names attached and in very small font next to the big name is the word "invited" in parentheses...meaning not committed.  So the event organizers use big names to sell the event to attendees and sponsors, crossing fingers and hoping that the big names show in sufficient numbers.

I suspect that may be what's going on here, "invited" versus "committed."  After all, he's just listing offers, including every kid who doesn't want to go to Michigan but that hasn't yet turned them down publicly. 

Apart from that, several of my Michigan alum friends are convinced that Harbaugh is going to try to "run" as many players off of the existing roster as possible because of a noticeably severe talent shortfall on the existing roster.
[/quote]

It appears that your friends' suspicions are correct:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13154115/ondre-pipkins-says-michigan-wolverines-coach-jim-harbaugh-staff-pressured-quit
[/quote]

The word amongst the alums here in the "mitten" (ugh) is that UofM has a talent shortfall that is more drastic than most people realize.  They also want Harbs to win at least 9 games (they won 5 last year) and Harbaugh has only done a four game improvement one year in his college career, his last year at Stanford.  He was the master of the slow build going from four wins to five to eight to twelve in four seasons at Stanford, not the instant success (which he admittedly had in the pros).  the implication is that the talent wasn't there, which is supposedly the case (at least on offense) at UofM now. 
The player in the story, though...after the concusion and the leg issues and the lack of playing time...isn't your body telling you something?  And they'll keep you on a full ride, and you can graduate.  Seems like a good deal to me.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - AthleticsDynasty - 06-27-2015

There is nothing wrong with offering a lot of prospects. Obviously those offers have conditions.

-Some guys commit else where obviously those offers don't stay on the table unless you're still being recruited.

-Their are limits as to what they are going to take at a certain position, so once they fill that position obviously the offer doesn't stay on the table

-Offers can come off the table if your grades slip

-Some recruits maybe have a certain time frame to join the class

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - TrumpCard - 07-04-2015

Seems a lot of offers have or will been pulled. 21 commits now. Still 108 offers to uncommitted recruits supposedly out there. 99 of those recruits are shown as medium interest or higher. 99 guys for 4 spots.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - socalstanfan1 - 07-04-2015

(07-04-2015, 08:03 PM)TrumpCard link Wrote:Seems a lot of offers have or will been pulled. 21 commits now. Still 108 offers to uncommitted recruits supposedly out there. 99 of those recruits are shown as medium interest or higher. 99 guys for 4 spots.


Yeah, no doubt Harbaugh has over-offered.  But I would really hesitate to take all the "medium interest" labels as gospel truth (as you yourself hint, by saying that a to of offers either have been, or will be, pulled).


I think its safe to assume that, in one way or another, a lot of the students listed as having "medium" interest may already have decided to go elsewhere.  But coaches cannot talk about recruits, and if the recruiting website just fails to ask the student their interest, that "medium" set up last September may still be there until the day the student chooses some other institution.  Just an incredible amount of bad information floating around the recruiting world. 


But, hey, I still follow it.

Re: Interesting thread on MGoBlog about Harbaugh oversigning - winflop - 07-05-2015

(06-23-2015, 10:48 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Yes, you can't oversign.  But that doesn't mean you can't overoffer or even get too many verbals, ad long as some of them don't sign.

BC


So does that mean once 7 more kids sign the other offers are worthless?