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Early lines - BostonCard - 06-29-2015

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13154574/college-football-golden-nugget-releases-cfb-games-year

Stanford at USC -4
Arizona at Stanford -7.5
UCLA at Stanford -4.5
Oregon at Stanford PK
California at Stanford -13
Notre Dame at Stanford -3

We are favored in most our games except for at USC (4 pt dogs) and home against Oregon, where it is a pick-em.  I think the picks underrate Oregon, Arizona and <gasp> Cal and overrate USC and to a lesser extent Notre Dame.

BC

Re: Early lines - Hulk01 - 06-29-2015

Notre Dame could be very good.  They fielded so many rookies last year.  The narrow losses seem likely to become wins.

I hate them, by the way.



Re: Early lines - Farm93 - 06-29-2015

All of USC's conferences games made that top 150 list.  They are a dog at Oregon and a pick-em for at ND, if I recall correctly.  The lines put them as favorites in all five of their Pac-12 South games.  That combination is best in the Pac-12 South, as all other Pac-12 South teams are underdogs in at least two conference teams.  However, the over/under line puts USC at 8.5 which would imply a third place Pac-12 South finish.  I think this implies that USC is more talented than the other Pac-12 South teams, but also more inconsistent.  That's probably fair since that is how it has played out in many of the seasons this decade.

Oregon is a 1 point dog at Michigan State and a pick-em at Stanford.  That implies they are the best team in the Pac-12 North and better than all of their opponents, but they have two difficult road contests.

If the Pac-12 favorites won all of the games, and the various pick-ems are won by the home teams then...
Oregon would finish at 11-1 (8-1), but lose the Pac-12 North tie-breaker to 11-1 (8-1) Stanford.  USC at 10-2(7-1) would win the Pac-12 South.

Wouldn't mind that scenario, but suspect that the Pac-12 is unlikely to see three teams with only one conference loss. 

Re: Early lines - Farm93 - 06-29-2015

(06-29-2015, 01:03 PM)Hulk01 link Wrote:the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends could be very good.  They fielded so many rookies last year.  The narrow losses seem likely to become wins.

I hate them, by the way.

Yes, but Notre Dame just suspended one of their star RBs for four games.  Reason was not disclosed, but I would imagine the best case is the suspension is for the academic challenges noted earlier this month.  Might be something else since I wouldn't think academic casualties would fall under team rules.

I would guess Texas (Game #1) and Georgia Tech (Game #3) might be strong enough to convert that lucky event into wins, but Notre Dame should be strong enough to overcome that suspension in all four of their early season games. 

Clemson probably could win in South Carolina if Notre Dame is missing a key starter, but, conveniently enough, that is game #5 on the ND schedule.  ::)

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13167815/greg-bryant-notre-dame-fighting-irish-suspended