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What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Printable Version

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What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - thunder_chik - 09-13-2015

Much to be encouraged about after last night's win; but what will it take to beat U Sark Cheesy in LA next week?

A lot will be on our D to contain their O.  Need to force turnovers.
A lot will be on our O to keep their D off balance.  I liked how we mixed it up last night, even when it didn't work perfectly.
Receivers need to focus and catch the balls Hogan throws in their hands.
Kicking game needs to be perfect, both in terms of scoring opportunities and field position.
Would love to see us win 13-10 in OT.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Langdude - 09-13-2015

Three things:

1) O-Line
2) QB
3) Pass-rush

Each needs to play great. Other parts of the team, IMHO, can afford to be merely solid. Evidence so far suggests a negative result for Stanford, sadly.

-m.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 09-13-2015

I do find the drops to be troubling. Hogan hasn't looked great but he hasn't been helped out by some stone hands from his receivers. Schultz in particular has stood out to me as having some big drops. I don't know if it's because I'm simply focusing on him or if he's actually been unreliable.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - thunder_chik - 09-13-2015

Haven't seen the odds yet; I'm expecting us to be 10+ point underdogs.  But that's okay, because I think we do better as underdogs, especially vs U*S*C.  Makes victory that much sweeter  ;)

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Rally - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 03:12 PM)thunder_chik link Wrote:Haven't seen the odds yet; I'm expecting us to be 10+ point underdogs.  But that's okay, because I think we do better as underdogs, especially vs U*S*C.  Makes victory that much sweeter  ;)

I'll be shocked if we are only 10 pt underdogs at their place.  I hate to say it but I think it will take a miracle to win.  I will watch and root, of course, but it could get ugly unless we play lights out and they completely disregard us.  Maybe we have been playing possum, looking terrible to lull them to sleep?  Nah.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - thunder_chik - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 03:31 PM)ferrari link Wrote:[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=12767.msg128331#msg128331 date=1442182367]
Haven't seen the odds yet; I'm expecting us to be 10+ point underdogs.  But that's okay, because I think we do better as underdogs, especially vs U*S*C.  Makes victory that much sweeter  ;)

I'll be shocked if we are only 10 pt underdogs at their place.  I hate to say it but I think it will take a miracle to win.  I will watch and root, of course, but it could get ugly unless we play lights out and they completely disregard us.  Maybe we have been playing possum, looking terrible to lull them to sleep?  Nah.
[/quote]

It's possible we're (over)due for a drubbing, HOWEVER, the margin of victory for the past 5 years has been 3, 3, 7, 8, and 3, with us winning 3 of the 5.  Hogan has never beat the Toejams as the starter; I think he'll be extra-motivated to do so this year.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Extra Point - 09-13-2015

Initial Vegas odds are in the -8 to -10 range.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

ESPN has Stanford as a 8 point underdog.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Rally - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 03:50 PM)thunder_chik link Wrote:[quote author=ferrari link=topic=12767.msg128336#msg128336 date=1442183504]
[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=12767.msg128331#msg128331 date=1442182367]
Haven't seen the odds yet; I'm expecting us to be 10+ point underdogs.  But that's okay, because I think we do better as underdogs, especially vs U*S*C.  Makes victory that much sweeter  ;)

I'll be shocked if we are only 10 pt underdogs at their place.  I hate to say it but I think it will take a miracle to win.  I will watch and root, of course, but it could get ugly unless we play lights out and they completely disregard us.  Maybe we have been playing possum, looking terrible to lull them to sleep?  Nah.
[/quote]

It's possible we're (over)due for a drubbing, HOWEVER, the margin of victory for the past 5 years has been 3, 3, 7, 8, and 3, with us winning 3 of the 5.  Hogan has never beat the Toejams as the starter; I think he'll be extra-motivated to do so this year.
[/quote]

Oh, Thunderchik, I love you.  We did beat them, with a back-up quarterback, in their house, as 41 pt underdogs.  Yes, I remember.  And I'm sure Hogan et al are motivated each week.  I'm sure all of our 4 and 5 Stars are motivated to fulfill their potential and earn NFL riches.  I'm sure the coaching staff is motivated to shut up the naysayers.  And I'm sure U..SC is motivated to win their 3rd in a row.  And wasn't Cutty Sark on the staff for the Greatest Upset Of All Time?  He's probably motivated, too.  All that means sh*t if we can't block, pass, catch and run.  Such a simple game.  Simple. 

On a seperate note, although I applaud them and happy to see their success, I'm getting tired of reading about how great our alumni are doing, whether it's NFLers, Maverick, or whoever.  Everyone of those guys could be on the sidelines Saturday, motivating the hell out of our CURRENT guys and it won't mean a thing.  Sorry, this is feeling like the first 38 or so years of my Stanford fandom.  I rooted for everyone of those teams, at every game, and followed them on Gametracker. 

Oh, and if you're a gambler and can get Stanford and 8 puts, bet the house.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - TrumpCard - 09-13-2015

I don't think the gap is as big as people perceive.  U$C lost a lot of talent to the draft (Agholor, Williams) just like Stanford did.  Plus, U$C had small classes in 2012 and in 2013.  So, just like Stanford, U$C also has plenty of depth issues and U$C is relying on relatively inexperienced players.  U$C certainly looked more crisp than Stanford did in its first two games, but piss poor opposition hides a lot of flaws.  I acknowledge that Stanford has an uphill battle, but one big hit by Kalambayi on an undersized Kessler could end up being the difference. 

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Rally - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 04:27 PM)TrumpCard link Wrote:I don't think the gap is as big as people perceive.  U$C lost a lot of talent to the draft (Agholor, Williams) just like Stanford did.  Plus, U$C had small classes in 2012 and in 2013.  So, just like Stanford, U$C also has plenty of depth issues and U$C is relying on relatively inexperienced players.  U$C certainly looked more crisp than Stanford did in its first two games, but piss poor opposition hides a lot of flaws.  I acknowledge that Stanford has an uphill battle, but one big hit by Kalambayi on an undersized Kessler could end up being the difference.

So, you're rooting for injury?  Career ending, season ending or just game ending?  Will you trade an ejection for it?  Good God.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - BurgXXIII - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 04:27 PM)TrumpCard link Wrote:but piss poor opposition hides a lot of flaws.

You mean there's a worse team than UCF?


Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - TrumpCard - 09-13-2015

Good heavens back at you.
Raise your hand if you aren't rooting for big hits on opposing qbs.
Hits have an impact on the game even if they don't cause a significant injury.
I don't know if Browne would end up being better than Kessler.
I do know that a shaken Kessler is worse (ie better for Stanford) than a comfortable Kessler.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Rally - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 04:52 PM)TrumpCard link Wrote:Good heavens back at you.
Raise your hand if you aren't rooting for big hits on opposing qbs.
Hits have an impact on the game even if they don't cause a significant injury.
I don't know if Browne would end up being better than Kessler.
I do know that a shaken Kessler is worse (ie better for Stanford) than a comfortable Kessler.

I completely misunderstood you and apologize.  Of course big hits help!  Can our supposedly undersized Dline holdup against their 300+ pounders?  We'll see.  Hope so.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - thunder_chik - 09-13-2015

Hey, Ferrari, as the saying goes, "hope springs eternal."  Truth be told I am a realist in all aspects of life EXCEPT football!
As a high school senior, my first exposure to Stanford football was on January 1, 1972, when my dad's co-worker called early that a.m. to ask if we wanted tickets to the Rose Bowl (his family had all come down with flu).  We went, to a game where #3 Michigan was a 10 1/2 point favorite, capping their first undefeated season since 1948.  Stanford was 8-3, and it would be their last game as the Indians.  Imagine my surprise when Stanford won, thanks in no small part to the Thunderchickens D and Ron Garcia's foot, 13-12... I think that was the day I decided I really, really wanted to go to Stanford (I had applied, late, at the urging of my dad, who decades later told me he had been named for Leland Stanford; sheeeesh, what a weird connection.  Coulda gone to Caltech instead; they recruited me heavily to be in the first class of incoming freshmen women, LOL).
But, I must disagree that football is a "simple" game.  Many, many permutations and combinations given 22 guys on the field, officials, coaches, and others.  On any given game day, anything can happen.  Each game is a unique combination of talent, luck, hard work, and many other factors.  That's what makes it so much fun... ;D 

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Rally - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 05:28 PM)thunder_chik link Wrote:Hey, Ferrari, as the saying goes, "hope springs eternal."  Truth be told I am a realist in all aspects of life EXCEPT football!
As a high school senior, my first exposure to Stanford football was on January 1, 1972, when my dad's co-worker called early that a.m. to ask if we wanted tickets to the Rose Bowl (his family had all come down with flu).  We went, to a game where #3 Michigan was a 10 1/2 point favorite, capping their first undefeated season since 1948.  Stanford was 8-3, and it would be their last game as the Indians.  Imagine my surprise when Stanford won, thanks in no small part to the Thunderchickens D and Ron Garcia's foot, 13-12... I think that was the day I decided I really, really wanted to go to Stanford (I had applied, late, at the urging of my dad, who decades later told me he had been named for Leland Stanford; sheeeesh, what a weird connection.  Coulda gone to Caltech instead; they recruited me heavily to be in the first class of incoming freshmen women, LOL).
But, I must disagree that football is a "simple" game.  Many, many permutations and combinations given 22 guys on the field, officials, coaches, and others.  On any given game day, anything can happen.  Each game is a unique combination of talent, luck, hard work, and many other factors.  That's what makes it so much fun... ;D

Yes, yes, and yes.  While you were a his junior we also beat heavily-favored Ohio State.  So, every once in a while it does happen :)

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Mick - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 04:26 PM)ferrari link Wrote:Oh, and if you're a gambler and can get Stanford and 8 puts, bet the house.


I am the world's worst gambler, genuinely the world's worst.  I think someone could make a pretty good living just by taking the opposite sides of my bets.  So I won't take that, or any other bet.

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Mick - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 04:29 PM)ferrari link Wrote:So, you're rooting for injury?  Career ending, season ending or just game ending?  Will you trade an ejection for it?  Good God.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeKpSAYyFtA

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - BostonCard - 09-13-2015

We opened at 8 point underdogs; the line has since moved to 9.5 pts.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/stanford-@-southern-california.cfm/date/09-19-15/time/2000

BC

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - 81alum - 09-13-2015

I don't like how we match up.  However, winning would prove that we are making substantial progress and put us on the national map again--and go a long way toward erasing the memory of Evanston.  So the odds of winning may not be high, but the rewards for doing so are higher than ever.  Besides, it would be so fitting to knock off two sleazeball coaches back to back.

Stanford 24
The Evil Empire 23

Re: What it will take to beat the #6 team next Saturday - Mick - 09-13-2015

(09-13-2015, 02:59 PM)thunder_chik link Wrote:Much to be encouraged about after last night's win; but what will it take to beat U Sark Cheesy in LA next week?

A lot will be on our D to contain their O.  Need to force turnovers.
A lot will be on our O to keep their D off balance.  I liked how we mixed it up last night, even when it didn't work perfectly.
Receivers need to focus and catch the balls Hogan throws in their hands.
Kicking game needs to be perfect, both in terms of scoring opportunities and field position.
Would love to see us win 13-10 in OT.

I would stipulate that talent is probably fairly equal.  I can't comment as to the quality of one staff over the other, although I like our HC over Sarkastic by about eight brazilian to one (old GWB joke reference there).  Here's my read:

1)  Our defense is very solid.  We are tied for 18th in the NCAA at 255.5 ypg..  Theirs has not given up many points, but they've given up  356 ypg against Arkansas State and Idaho (in their 55-6 and 59-9 victories).  Their Total Defense ranking is #62:
  http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22/p2
Basically, they stiffened when they had to, giving up a lot of yards, but not many points.  Why?  Turnovers...

2)  U$C has recovered two fumbles and made two INTs in two games.  They haven't given up any.  Ours is net neutral, with one fumble taken and one given, one INT given and one taken.  Big edge to Tr0jans, which is reflected by:

3)  Penalties.  Trojunz have given up 92 yards in penalties in two games, #36 in the country.  We have given up 162 yards, 81 per game, and #109 in the country. 

4)  Offense.  Theirs towers over ours.  SC is #4 in the country at 623 ypg.  We are #94 at 365.5 ypg, the vast majority of which came over a terrible team that was playing past midnight, body clock time.

Here's my summary: for Stanford to win, we need to achieve much better discipline from this past week to the next.  Penalties have to go down by 2/3.  We need to at least equal troyans in turnovers, better if we have a 1 or 2 margin.  Our defense has to shock their currently overconfident offense (e.g., stuff them on the first two drives).  Our special teams have to continue to improve, and our coaching needs to improve.  We need better play calling.  We ALSO need better execution on offense.  We have to stop dropping passes, making bad passes, missing blocks and making bad blocks.

In short, we need to figure it out toute suite, like yesterday.  Otherwise, I see a double digit loss.