[Kathy]

Looks like he's been making a lot of phone calls about this.  He had his answer rehearsed and ready to go, which basically was comprised of the following points:

1. College basketball has changed.  We can't really compete with other programs to get those transfers, McD A-A's, or otherwise top recruits who are one-and-done talents necessary for success.
2. MBK isn't in terrible shape--we're not at the 1-11 level that football was.  No need to panic.
3. MBK was a few FTs+missed shots from winning more games that would have put us in the Big Dance.  We were in contention with the committee until the last minute.  (Muir worked the committee this year, I think.)
4. It's not Dawkins's fault.

So pretty much nothing new. 

AD initiatives are the $3500 living expenses stipend for student-athletes, the nutritionist, the sport psychologist (this year or next), and expanding food options for student-athletes.  I might have recorded his talk--we'll see if technology failed me.  But he focused a lot about improving the student-athlete experience and also improving the fan/alumni experience.  Apparently we've sold 30k season tickets for the '15 campaign, and he's also working on bringing that to the 33k sell-out level.  Lots of branding talk and core messages of the external relations/marketing team.

Stanford MBK is doomed.  :(

[Kathy]

Looks like he's been making a lot of phone calls about this.  He had his answer rehearsed and ready to go, which basically was comprised of the following points:

1. College basketball has changed.  We can't really compete with other programs to get those transfers, McD A-A's, or otherwise top recruits who are one-and-done talents necessary for success.
2. MBK isn't in terrible shape--we're not at the 1-11 level that football was.  No need to panic.
3. MBK was a few FTs+missed shots from winning more games that would have put us in the Big Dance.  We were in contention with the committee until the last minute.  (Muir worked the committee this year, I think.)
4. It's not Dawkins's fault.

So pretty much nothing new. 

AD initiatives are the $3500 living expenses stipend for student-athletes, the nutritionist, the sport psychologist (this year or next), and expanding food options for student-athletes.  I might have recorded his talk--we'll see if technology failed me.  But he focused a lot about improving the student-athlete experience and also improving the fan/alumni experience.  Apparently we've sold 30k season tickets for the '15 campaign, and he's also working on bringing that to the 33k sell-out level.  Lots of branding talk and core messages of the external relations/marketing team.

Stanford MBK is doomed.  :(

[terry]

Terry - I suspect from your silence that you don't want to say anything more about your conversation than that. But just in case, is there anything more you would say and/or would you characterize your conversation any differently than winflop characterizes his?

I don't have a lot to add to what winflop said. Muir touched on a lot of the same points with me.

Muir already has made up his mind to keep Dawkins. Given that, it's his job to support Dawkins. So I didn't expect him to say "You know, you're right, Johnny really hasn't been doing a good job." Nor should he say that. As the A.D., he absolutely shouldn't undercut his coach by criticizing him in conversations with alumni. He needs to support his coaches. Let's be realistic. Muir is not going to be open with us about any doubts he might have.

To me, the important thing is to make our views known. Muir is listening. Even if he's not going to openly agree with the criticisms of Dawkins, it's good for him to hear them. And I think it will make an impression.

[terry]

Terry - I suspect from your silence that you don't want to say anything more about your conversation than that. But just in case, is there anything more you would say and/or would you characterize your conversation any differently than winflop characterizes his?

I don't have a lot to add to what winflop said. Muir touched on a lot of the same points with me.

Muir already has made up his mind to keep Dawkins. Given that, it's his job to support Dawkins. So I didn't expect him to say "You know, you're right, Johnny really hasn't been doing a good job." Nor should he say that. As the A.D., he absolutely shouldn't undercut his coach by criticizing him in conversations with alumni. He needs to support his coaches. Let's be realistic. Muir is not going to be open with us about any doubts he might have.

To me, the important thing is to make our views known. Muir is listening. Even if he's not going to openly agree with the criticisms of Dawkins, it's good for him to hear them. And I think it will make an impression.

[winflop]

One thing to add about McD AA's today vs 10/20 years ago - there are FEWER of them in college basketball today than there were back then.  If you're as good now as Sean Elliot was in his day, you'd be gone after one year not three or four years.  Stanford should play against FEWER of them today, so that's about as illogical an argument as Muir could make.

The more I think about my conversation with Muir, and terry's, the more I'm inclined to say I've lost faith in Muir as an AD.  However, he's got the opportunity to earn it back in the next 12 months.

[winflop]

One thing to add about McD AA's today vs 10/20 years ago - there are FEWER of them in college basketball today than there were back then.  If you're as good now as Sean Elliot was in his day, you'd be gone after one year not three or four years.  Stanford should play against FEWER of them today, so that's about as illogical an argument as Muir could make.

The more I think about my conversation with Muir, and terry's, the more I'm inclined to say I've lost faith in Muir as an AD.  However, he's got the opportunity to earn it back in the next 12 months.

[JohnR34231]

Garvin, I also met Peter Bhatia '75

An old Daily-mate of Kathy and I. (Or is it "me"?) Did you tell him to visit the CardBoard?

You're not sure, Garvin? The Cardboard Grammar Police would be appalled. :)

[JohnR34231]

Garvin, I also met Peter Bhatia '75

An old Daily-mate of Kathy and I. (Or is it "me"?) Did you tell him to visit the CardBoard?

You're not sure, Garvin? The Cardboard Grammar Police would be appalled. :)

[fullmetal]

Garvin, I also met Peter Bhatia '75

An old Daily-mate of Kathy and I. (Or is it "me"?) Did you tell him to visit the CardBoard?

I did in fact!  Also met Hank_91 this weekend :)  Truly worth the 11:50pm redeye I have to take home tonight (and then straight to work).  I missed everyone one who went to the spring game as well; the SAA event didn't finish until later.

[fullmetal]

Garvin, I also met Peter Bhatia '75

An old Daily-mate of Kathy and I. (Or is it "me"?) Did you tell him to visit the CardBoard?

I did in fact!  Also met Hank_91 this weekend :)  Truly worth the 11:50pm redeye I have to take home tonight (and then straight to work).  I missed everyone one who went to the spring game as well; the SAA event didn't finish until later.

[yvonne]

What are you doing today?

[yvonne]

What are you doing today?

[fullmetal]

Still recovering from last week's bout of not sleeping, and I just realized I missed the Stanford rowing races at Redwood Shores.  Might swing by to see if the coaches are still there.

[fullmetal]

Still recovering from last week's bout of not sleeping, and I just realized I missed the Stanford rowing races at Redwood Shores.  Might swing by to see if the coaches are still there.

[winflop]

Most of this season Cartwright backed up Randle at PG, not Sanders (11.1 min/gm vs 7.8).  When Sanders was out there he looked like a deer in the headlights - horribly overmatched at both ends of the court.  The offense went completely stagnant when he was running it.

Bust.

1. I believe Sanders was injured and out for some time at the beginning of the season, and Cartwright took over the backup spot. By the end of the season, Sanders was clearly the backup, and Cartwright was barely playing at all. So if Sanders is a bust, I guess Cartwright is really a bust. By the way, their numbers on turnovers, assists and steals -- the three key measures for a point guard -- were nearly identical.

2. When either one of those guys was is in the game, it usually meant Randle was out. And yes, without Randle, our offense was pretty stagnant. To me, that suggests a problem that goes much deeper than the identity of the point guard.

3. Just curious: What was your analysis of Stefan Nastic at the end of his first three years in the program? Was he a total bust, too?

Nastic improved over time, Sanders has not.  Sanders had the same lost, deer in the headlights look at the end of this season that he did the beginning of his first year on court.  And Cartwright is a true frosh so I'm willing to cut the kid a break.  I like the way he ran the offense better than Sanders did this year.  He actually moved the ball around and was a threat to score.

[winflop]

Most of this season Cartwright backed up Randle at PG, not Sanders (11.1 min/gm vs 7.8).  When Sanders was out there he looked like a deer in the headlights - horribly overmatched at both ends of the court.  The offense went completely stagnant when he was running it.

Bust.

1. I believe Sanders was injured and out for some time at the beginning of the season, and Cartwright took over the backup spot. By the end of the season, Sanders was clearly the backup, and Cartwright was barely playing at all. So if Sanders is a bust, I guess Cartwright is really a bust. By the way, their numbers on turnovers, assists and steals -- the three key measures for a point guard -- were nearly identical.

2. When either one of those guys was is in the game, it usually meant Randle was out. And yes, without Randle, our offense was pretty stagnant. To me, that suggests a problem that goes much deeper than the identity of the point guard.

3. Just curious: What was your analysis of Stefan Nastic at the end of his first three years in the program? Was he a total bust, too?

Nastic improved over time, Sanders has not.  Sanders had the same lost, deer in the headlights look at the end of this season that he did the beginning of his first year on court.  And Cartwright is a true frosh so I'm willing to cut the kid a break.  I like the way he ran the offense better than Sanders did this year.  He actually moved the ball around and was a threat to score.

[washingtonismoney]

Here's why Muir's one-and-done argument is so dumb. It effectively argues that the talent disparity raised by one-and-done is so great that Stanford can't keep up. But Muir ignores that we're dealing with a dynamic situation -- that is, even if the number of one-and-dones increases, that can be counterbalanced by changes in the talent of upperclassmen.

Here's the total conference talent drafted by the NBA between 2005-2008, excepting Stanford:

2008:
OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Russell Westbrook (4th)
Kevin Love (5th)
Jerryd Bayless (11th)
Ryan Anderson (21st)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37th)
Kyle Weaver (38th)
Malik Hairston (48th)
Devon Hardin (50th)
Maarty Leunen (54th)
(9 picks)

2007:
Spencer Hawes (10th)
Nick Young (15th)
Aaron Brooks (26th)
Arron Afflalo (27th)
Gabe Pruitt (32nd)
Marcus Williams (33rd)
(6 picks)

2006:
Brandon Roy (6th)
Jordan Farmar (26th)
Bobby Jones (37th)
Leon Powe (49th)
Ryan Hollins (50th)
Hassan Adams (54th)
(6 picks)

2005:
Channing Frye (8th)
Ike Diogu (9th)
Nate Robinson (21st)
Salim Stoudamire (31st)
Dijon Thompson (54th)
(5 picks)

An average of 6.5 picks per year, in other words.

From 2009-2014:
2009: Harden (3rd); Hill (8th); DeRozan (9th); Holiday (17th); Collison (21st); Gibson (26th); Pendergraph (31st); Brockman (38th); Budinger (44th) = 8 picks
2010: Quincy Pondexter (26th) = 1 pick
2011: Derrick Williams (2nd); Klay Thompson (11th); Alec Burks (12th); Nikola Vucevic (16th); Tyler Honeycutt (35th); Malcolm Lee (43rd); Isaiah Thomas (60th) = 7 picks
2012: Terrence Ross (8th); Jared Cunningham (24th) = 2 picks
2013: Muhammad (14th); Solomon Hill (23rd); Andre Roberson (26th); Crabbe (31st); Felix (33rd); Jerrett (40th); Kazemi (54th) = 7 picks
2014: Gordon (4th); LaVine (13th); Adams (22nd); Wilcox (28th); Anderson (30th): Johnson (42nd); = 6 picks
----
5.2 picks per year.

But wait, that difference still understates the superior talent in the pre-Dawkins era. Keep in mind that the conference expanded and the 5.2 picks per year are spread out over a greater number of teams during the Dawkins era. And keep in mind that a greater proportion of one-and-dones these days are drafted for potential rather than college production. (See Jerrett, LaVine and Muhammad.) And keep in mind that (in my subjective belief), being drafted in, say, 2008 is more impressive than some of the weaker drafts in the Dawkins sample.

In other words, any suggestion that Dawkins is facing greater talent than before is incorrect. If there's a greater talent disparity now than before, the wound is self-inflicted. If Muir truly believes this argument, he is not all that sharp.

[washingtonismoney]

Here's why Muir's one-and-done argument is so dumb. It effectively argues that the talent disparity raised by one-and-done is so great that Stanford can't keep up. But Muir ignores that we're dealing with a dynamic situation -- that is, even if the number of one-and-dones increases, that can be counterbalanced by changes in the talent of upperclassmen.

Here's the total conference talent drafted by the NBA between 2005-2008, excepting Stanford:

2008:
OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Russell Westbrook (4th)
Kevin Love (5th)
Jerryd Bayless (11th)
Ryan Anderson (21st)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37th)
Kyle Weaver (38th)
Malik Hairston (48th)
Devon Hardin (50th)
Maarty Leunen (54th)
(9 picks)

2007:
Spencer Hawes (10th)
Nick Young (15th)
Aaron Brooks (26th)
Arron Afflalo (27th)
Gabe Pruitt (32nd)
Marcus Williams (33rd)
(6 picks)

2006:
Brandon Roy (6th)
Jordan Farmar (26th)
Bobby Jones (37th)
Leon Powe (49th)
Ryan Hollins (50th)
Hassan Adams (54th)
(6 picks)

2005:
Channing Frye (8th)
Ike Diogu (9th)
Nate Robinson (21st)
Salim Stoudamire (31st)
Dijon Thompson (54th)
(5 picks)

An average of 6.5 picks per year, in other words.

From 2009-2014:
2009: Harden (3rd); Hill (8th); DeRozan (9th); Holiday (17th); Collison (21st); Gibson (26th); Pendergraph (31st); Brockman (38th); Budinger (44th) = 8 picks
2010: Quincy Pondexter (26th) = 1 pick
2011: Derrick Williams (2nd); Klay Thompson (11th); Alec Burks (12th); Nikola Vucevic (16th); Tyler Honeycutt (35th); Malcolm Lee (43rd); Isaiah Thomas (60th) = 7 picks
2012: Terrence Ross (8th); Jared Cunningham (24th) = 2 picks
2013: Muhammad (14th); Solomon Hill (23rd); Andre Roberson (26th); Crabbe (31st); Felix (33rd); Jerrett (40th); Kazemi (54th) = 7 picks
2014: Gordon (4th); LaVine (13th); Adams (22nd); Wilcox (28th); Anderson (30th): Johnson (42nd); = 6 picks
----
5.2 picks per year.

But wait, that difference still understates the superior talent in the pre-Dawkins era. Keep in mind that the conference expanded and the 5.2 picks per year are spread out over a greater number of teams during the Dawkins era. And keep in mind that a greater proportion of one-and-dones these days are drafted for potential rather than college production. (See Jerrett, LaVine and Muhammad.) And keep in mind that (in my subjective belief), being drafted in, say, 2008 is more impressive than some of the weaker drafts in the Dawkins sample.

In other words, any suggestion that Dawkins is facing greater talent than before is incorrect. If there's a greater talent disparity now than before, the wound is self-inflicted. If Muir truly believes this argument, he is not all that sharp.

[burger]

he is not all that sharp.

I'm starting to suspect that this is the underlying problem.

[burger]

he is not all that sharp.

I'm starting to suspect that this is the underlying problem.

[BobK]

Nice post Wim

We went sweet 16.  Then won the NIT and we expect Dawkins to be fired?  And then Muir agrees to meet with a number of people and what do they expect him to say?  And we practice 4 hours breaking all rules ?  Too much BS in the comments. I signed the petition after the season.  I wanted him gone but fully understand why he is here.  Do I  worry about the future hell yes that's why I wanted him gone.  Did I expect it after winning the NIT ?  Of course not. 

[BobK]

Nice post Wim

We went sweet 16.  Then won the NIT and we expect Dawkins to be fired?  And then Muir agrees to meet with a number of people and what do they expect him to say?  And we practice 4 hours breaking all rules ?  Too much BS in the comments. I signed the petition after the season.  I wanted him gone but fully understand why he is here.  Do I  worry about the future hell yes that's why I wanted him gone.  Did I expect it after winning the NIT ?  Of course not. 

[oldalum]

The decision to keep Dawkins has been made and at this point we should expect only spin from Muir.
Looking on the bright side, my seats are probably going to get even better next year--and over Dawkins' tenure I've already moved from the extreme side to near middle! Looking on the dim side, good reasons for paying out all that money are getting even fewer.

[oldalum]

The decision to keep Dawkins has been made and at this point we should expect only spin from Muir.
Looking on the bright side, my seats are probably going to get even better next year--and over Dawkins' tenure I've already moved from the extreme side to near middle! Looking on the dim side, good reasons for paying out all that money are getting even fewer.

[Stymie]

Your glass is very much half-full, oldalum!

As for Dawkins, Paul Wiggin was a great person, a great NFLplayer and an alumnus to boot.  But.... he was not up to the task of coaching the Stanford foootball team.  Whoever was the AD at the time understood that and cut his losses as soon as he could.

Mr. Muir seems to be doubling down when the odds are against him.....

[Stymie]

Your glass is very much half-full, oldalum!

As for Dawkins, Paul Wiggin was a great person, a great NFLplayer and an alumnus to boot.  But.... he was not up to the task of coaching the Stanford foootball team.  Whoever was the AD at the time understood that and cut his losses as soon as he could.

Mr. Muir seems to be doubling down when the odds are against him.....

[Papa John]

Well, Paul Wiggin was not let go until after the disastrous 1-10 season of 1983 (the season after Elway left and the events of November 20, 1982). The athletic director who did the firing was Andy Geiger--a career AD at a number of schools, including tOSU--but I'm pretty sure that Mr. Geiger also did the hiring.

Although I believe that Johnny Dawkins should have been let go, especially after seasons 3 and 5, he has not had any train wrecks that remotely approach the second-worst season in Stanford football since WWII.

[Papa John]

Well, Paul Wiggin was not let go until after the disastrous 1-10 season of 1983 (the season after Elway left and the events of November 20, 1982). The athletic director who did the firing was Andy Geiger--a career AD at a number of schools, including tOSU--but I'm pretty sure that Mr. Geiger also did the hiring.

Although I believe that Johnny Dawkins should have been let go, especially after seasons 3 and 5, he has not had any train wrecks that remotely approach the second-worst season in Stanford football since WWII.

[Papa John]

All true, garvin, except I'm pretty sure the aborted Peach Bowl bid was in 1980, and in 1982 it was an aborted Independence Bowl bid.

Gee, I really need to let this go...

[Papa John]

All true, garvin, except I'm pretty sure the aborted Peach Bowl bid was in 1980, and in 1982 it was an aborted Independence Bowl bid.

Gee, I really need to let this go...

[Papa John]

Ah, right, the Hall of Fame Bowl. Well, I still need to let this go.

[Papa John]

Ah, right, the Hall of Fame Bowl. Well, I still need to let this go.

[CowboyIndian]

If the 59ers are to be believed, Papa John, you're half-right. The Peach Bowl was in play in 1980, but it was the Hall of Fame Bowl (played, I think, in Birmingham) that we would have gone to in 1982 had the game ended a few seconds earlier.

I remember being pissed but thinking, "What the hell...it's Shreveport." Can't remember the name of the bowl there, though.

[CowboyIndian]

If the 59ers are to be believed, Papa John, you're half-right. The Peach Bowl was in play in 1980, but it was the Hall of Fame Bowl (played, I think, in Birmingham) that we would have gone to in 1982 had the game ended a few seconds earlier.

I remember being pissed but thinking, "What the hell...it's Shreveport." Can't remember the name of the bowl there, though.

[JohnR34231]

I'd guess that had it not been for that illegal kick return -- which scuttled a winning season and a Peach Bowl bid -- Paul Wiggin wouldn't have been fired after the following season. He would have been just a season away from our first bowl game in 12 years. And perhaps we wouldn't have gone 1-10, either. Wiggin seemed shell-shocked the whole season. Years later, there was a piece in the Chron in which he recalled telling his wife after the Big Cheat, "Nothing's ever going to be the same for us here." Perhaps that turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Our first bowl game in 12 years?

Did you forget we went to bowls under Walsh in 1977 and 1978?

[JohnR34231]

I'd guess that had it not been for that illegal kick return -- which scuttled a winning season and a Peach Bowl bid -- Paul Wiggin wouldn't have been fired after the following season. He would have been just a season away from our first bowl game in 12 years. And perhaps we wouldn't have gone 1-10, either. Wiggin seemed shell-shocked the whole season. Years later, there was a piece in the Chron in which he recalled telling his wife after the Big Cheat, "Nothing's ever going to be the same for us here." Perhaps that turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Our first bowl game in 12 years?

Did you forget we went to bowls under Walsh in 1977 and 1978?

[winflop]

The decision to keep Dawkins has been made...

That was apparent in the first two minutes of my conversation with Muir.  I left it with him that we will have to agree to disagree about Dawkins.  I told him the last five years tell me that he is an average major college head coach, that the program is not improving.

Despite his statements to the contrary, Muir's actions tell me that he's willing to accept that being around the bubble is good enough.

[winflop]

The decision to keep Dawkins has been made...

That was apparent in the first two minutes of my conversation with Muir.  I left it with him that we will have to agree to disagree about Dawkins.  I told him the last five years tell me that he is an average major college head coach, that the program is not improving.

Despite his statements to the contrary, Muir's actions tell me that he's willing to accept that being around the bubble is good enough.

[JohnR34231]

.......not only did he compile a pretty middling overall record prior to the disaster of 1983 ( I won't use mediocre), he managed to do it while having one of the greatest QB's and greatest running backs in Stanford history on his roster.

[JohnR34231]

.......not only did he compile a pretty middling overall record prior to the disaster of 1983 ( I won't use mediocre), he managed to do it while having one of the greatest QB's and greatest running backs in Stanford history on his roster.