The last two years, I have posted my thoughts and invited yours on playing true freshmen. I have called the post Burnt Shirts; I realize this is an imperfect title given that it is usually reserved for playing true freshmen, usually somewhat into the season, who initially had been reserved for a redshirt year. Here I am using Burnt Shirts to refer to any true freshmen played: Stanford, I believe, for reasons I have documented before, has a greater interest in redshirting freshmen relative to other elite programs. My rationale is here if you want to look, but it can be summarized as (1) playbook, (2) Turley, (3) five years (viz., players will stay longer since very few contributing Stanford players transfer or flunk out, and I think there are fewer NFL early entries than other elite programs, though I know that the tide could be changing), and (4) recruiting (having smaller classes fits our smaller pool, enabling us to concentrate on fewer recruits).
I already know some of you disagree, which is great. To be clear, I am not suggesting that true freshmen should not play; I am merely suggesting that there should be a significant burden of evidence for the benefit of playing a true freshman at all. For instance, perhaps if a freshman will be a starter or second string contributor, burn the shirt. Other arguments could be made that a true frosh should play if they are a ST performer or to give experience for the future; I am less sanguine about those reasons, but understand the rationale. Remember that there are lots of Stanford players than have spoken of the benefit of redshirting, including early entries Solomon Thomas, Andrew Luck, and Joshua Garnett, who did not redshirt. It seems the coaching staff agrees with this rationale more or less, as each year we see a small number of true freshmen play.
Anyway, I want to look at those that played last year, and then take a stab at guessing the true freshmen that will play this year. Obligatory disclaimer: In suggesting how good last years burns were, I am only guessing. Coaches are smarter than me and notice things I did not. I am often wrong, and probably am here. So there.
2016 Burns
Last year, only five four true freshmen played, fewer than I anticipated.
Donald Stewart
10 games played; 2 catches for 17 yards (only Taijuan Thomas with fewer). It seems that Stanford quite often likes to play one true frosh each at receiver, linebacker, and DB, so it made sense Stewart would play, especially since he was such a heralded recruit. He was not productive in terms of catches and yards, but I am guessing that he was also on special teams, and of course he got some game experience. Yet it seemed to me that Stanford already had plenty of receivers last year with more PT and productivity (Irwin, JJAW, Rector, Owusu; CMac, Bryce, and Schultz, and Taboada also had more catches, IBS the same number; I believe Jay Tyler lined up at receiver but had no catches); the fact that Stewart did not play every game could suggest that he was not indispensable, so I dont think this was a clear-cut great burn unless his contributions on ST in 10 games were truly special, which they could have been.
Curtis Robinson
Played in all 13 games with 13 tackles (11th among LBs, 5th and last among OLBs, but more tackles than Terrence Alexander, Jordan Watkins, or Luke Kaumatule); one sack. Again, seems like Stanford likes to play one frosh linebacker. When I watched Robinson play last year, he did not strike me as outstanding, but perhaps they were grooming him. And perhaps he was a contributor on special teams, like Mustafa Branch his frosh year; I did predict that they might play Robinson or Jordan Fox on STs. But given how little he played on defense (never on the two-deep), I wonder how useful his burn was.
Nate Herbig
Played in all 13 games with 6 starts (all wins). I think it is clear how much we benefitted from HeBIG playing last year. (For the record, I did predict it!) Perhaps the most productive true frosh lineman to play since I dont know Jeff Buckey? Maybe more; he made the ESPN true freshman AA team. Excellent burn. I wish he would have started sooner, but perhaps he was not yet ready.
Richard McNitzky
13 games played as the starting long snapper; C.J. Keller was the starting short snapper. I am going to guess this was very much helpful if they decided McNitzky was better than Keller for long snaps. We all know how important snaps are to the punter, especially deep in our own territory. Great burn.
Jack Richardson
He played in one game; cant remember if it was on ST, but likely it was to snap the ball in garbage time in an early contest because he preserved his redshirt, so no burn.
Last Years Predictions
Not sure about you, but there were only a few very mild surprises for me regarding frosh who were not played. I thought theyd play one true frosh DB; I thought Treyjohn Butler would play, and that Andrew Pryts might be a ST contributor if Butler was not, but I was wrong on that. I thought that coaches would groom at least one frosh DL to deepen the shallow pool that has plagued that position in recent years (I figured Mike Williams), but they must not have been ready. Given the poor play of our o-line, I was surprised they never played Devery Hamilton. I thought maybe theyd play Trevor Speights to get ready for the post CMac era, but they didnt. Finally, since we obviously like the three TE sets, I thought that if Kaden Smith was healthy enough go at some point in the season that he would play and that, if not, it was possible that Scooter Harrington would see some snaps; neither came true.
2016 Frosh No Longer on Roster
Thats it for now; would love to hear your thoughts on last years burnt shirts. Ill post next on this years redshirts, maybe tomorrow or the next day.
-m.
I already know some of you disagree, which is great. To be clear, I am not suggesting that true freshmen should not play; I am merely suggesting that there should be a significant burden of evidence for the benefit of playing a true freshman at all. For instance, perhaps if a freshman will be a starter or second string contributor, burn the shirt. Other arguments could be made that a true frosh should play if they are a ST performer or to give experience for the future; I am less sanguine about those reasons, but understand the rationale. Remember that there are lots of Stanford players than have spoken of the benefit of redshirting, including early entries Solomon Thomas, Andrew Luck, and Joshua Garnett, who did not redshirt. It seems the coaching staff agrees with this rationale more or less, as each year we see a small number of true freshmen play.
Anyway, I want to look at those that played last year, and then take a stab at guessing the true freshmen that will play this year. Obligatory disclaimer: In suggesting how good last years burns were, I am only guessing. Coaches are smarter than me and notice things I did not. I am often wrong, and probably am here. So there.
2016 Burns
Last year, only five four true freshmen played, fewer than I anticipated.
Donald Stewart
10 games played; 2 catches for 17 yards (only Taijuan Thomas with fewer). It seems that Stanford quite often likes to play one true frosh each at receiver, linebacker, and DB, so it made sense Stewart would play, especially since he was such a heralded recruit. He was not productive in terms of catches and yards, but I am guessing that he was also on special teams, and of course he got some game experience. Yet it seemed to me that Stanford already had plenty of receivers last year with more PT and productivity (Irwin, JJAW, Rector, Owusu; CMac, Bryce, and Schultz, and Taboada also had more catches, IBS the same number; I believe Jay Tyler lined up at receiver but had no catches); the fact that Stewart did not play every game could suggest that he was not indispensable, so I dont think this was a clear-cut great burn unless his contributions on ST in 10 games were truly special, which they could have been.
Curtis Robinson
Played in all 13 games with 13 tackles (11th among LBs, 5th and last among OLBs, but more tackles than Terrence Alexander, Jordan Watkins, or Luke Kaumatule); one sack. Again, seems like Stanford likes to play one frosh linebacker. When I watched Robinson play last year, he did not strike me as outstanding, but perhaps they were grooming him. And perhaps he was a contributor on special teams, like Mustafa Branch his frosh year; I did predict that they might play Robinson or Jordan Fox on STs. But given how little he played on defense (never on the two-deep), I wonder how useful his burn was.
Nate Herbig
Played in all 13 games with 6 starts (all wins). I think it is clear how much we benefitted from HeBIG playing last year. (For the record, I did predict it!) Perhaps the most productive true frosh lineman to play since I dont know Jeff Buckey? Maybe more; he made the ESPN true freshman AA team. Excellent burn. I wish he would have started sooner, but perhaps he was not yet ready.
Richard McNitzky
13 games played as the starting long snapper; C.J. Keller was the starting short snapper. I am going to guess this was very much helpful if they decided McNitzky was better than Keller for long snaps. We all know how important snaps are to the punter, especially deep in our own territory. Great burn.
Jack Richardson
He played in one game; cant remember if it was on ST, but likely it was to snap the ball in garbage time in an early contest because he preserved his redshirt, so no burn.
Last Years Predictions
Not sure about you, but there were only a few very mild surprises for me regarding frosh who were not played. I thought theyd play one true frosh DB; I thought Treyjohn Butler would play, and that Andrew Pryts might be a ST contributor if Butler was not, but I was wrong on that. I thought that coaches would groom at least one frosh DL to deepen the shallow pool that has plagued that position in recent years (I figured Mike Williams), but they must not have been ready. Given the poor play of our o-line, I was surprised they never played Devery Hamilton. I thought maybe theyd play Trevor Speights to get ready for the post CMac era, but they didnt. Finally, since we obviously like the three TE sets, I thought that if Kaden Smith was healthy enough go at some point in the season that he would play and that, if not, it was possible that Scooter Harrington would see some snaps; neither came true.
2016 Frosh No Longer on Roster
- Matthew Gutwald, preferred walk-on OG from Dublin (CA); well recruited (offers from Zona, Oregon, OSU, WSU); mystery as to his reasons for retiring, as it seems he would have contributed in his time at Stanford
- Brent Peus, preferred walk-on QB from Santa Barbara; he did play in the Spring game, so unsure of reasons for retiring, but definitely far down on depth chart
- Paxton Segina, scholarship WR from Texas, lightly-recruited, flipped from Rice; retired due to injuries he did suffer a concussion in HS
- Clark Yarbrough, scholarship OT from NJ; very highly recruited (offers from Tennessee, Penn State, Michigan, LSU, Oklahoma, Miami, Florida, Clemson, Auburn, and a few other Pac-12 schools); retired due to injury concerns
Thats it for now; would love to hear your thoughts on last years burnt shirts. Ill post next on this years redshirts, maybe tomorrow or the next day.
-m.
