[BostonCard]

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/Vo...ack-quack/

Interesting angle from Wilner (how often do you say that); H-award winners are rarely the folks everyone expects at the beginning of the season, so who are the candidates who could emerge?  Wilner is calling Oregon's Herbert the favorite, which in some ways is reasonable, though he will have to do it with a new head coach.  He has ROnald Jones and Myles Gaskin second and third (though one or both may go pro), but his fourth pick is ridiculous.  He has KJ Costello next:

No program in the west, including USC, has done a better job recently of producing H-man candidates than Stanford — five runner-up finishes in nine years — and in four instances (Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck I, McCaffrey and Love), it was a dark-horse campaign.

Costello gained the requisite experience over the second half of the season, and produced enough big plays, to lay the foundation for a legitimate campaign.

Yes, he’d have to escape Love’s shadow. But as we saw with McCaffrey in ’16, repeat campaigns can be easily derailed.

It's ridiculous because let's face it, he will finish second in the voting.

BC

[BostonCard]

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/Vo...ack-quack/

Interesting angle from Wilner (how often do you say that); H-award winners are rarely the folks everyone expects at the beginning of the season, so who are the candidates who could emerge?  Wilner is calling Oregon's Herbert the favorite, which in some ways is reasonable, though he will have to do it with a new head coach.  He has ROnald Jones and Myles Gaskin second and third (though one or both may go pro), but his fourth pick is ridiculous.  He has KJ Costello next:

No program in the west, including USC, has done a better job recently of producing H-man candidates than Stanford — five runner-up finishes in nine years — and in four instances (Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck I, McCaffrey and Love), it was a dark-horse campaign.

Costello gained the requisite experience over the second half of the season, and produced enough big plays, to lay the foundation for a legitimate campaign.

Yes, he’d have to escape Love’s shadow. But as we saw with McCaffrey in ’16, repeat campaigns can be easily derailed.

It's ridiculous because let's face it, he will finish second in the voting.

BC

[JJJ]

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/  -trophy-the-pac-12-favorite-for-2018-isnt-who-you-think-wink-wink-err-quack-quack/

Interesting angle from Wilner (how often do you say that); H-award winners are rarely the folks everyone expects at the beginning of the season, so who are the candidates who could emerge?  Wilner is calling Oregon's Herbert the favorite, which in some ways is reasonable, though he will have to do it with a new head coach.  He has ROnald Jones and Myles Gaskin second and third (though one or both may go pro), but his fourth pick is ridiculous.  He has KJ Costello next:

No program in the west, including U$C, has done a better job recently of producing H-man candidates than Stanford — five runner-up finishes in nine years — and in four instances (Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck I, McCaffrey and Love), it was a dark-horse campaign.

Costello gained the requisite experience over the second half of the season, and produced enough big plays, to lay the foundation for a legitimate campaign.

Yes, he’d have to escape Love’s shadow. But as we saw with McCaffrey in ’16, repeat campaigns can be easily derailed.

It's ridiculous because let's face it, he will finish second in the voting.

BC

8) :'(

[JJJ]

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/  -trophy-the-pac-12-favorite-for-2018-isnt-who-you-think-wink-wink-err-quack-quack/

Interesting angle from Wilner (how often do you say that); H-award winners are rarely the folks everyone expects at the beginning of the season, so who are the candidates who could emerge?  Wilner is calling Oregon's Herbert the favorite, which in some ways is reasonable, though he will have to do it with a new head coach.  He has ROnald Jones and Myles Gaskin second and third (though one or both may go pro), but his fourth pick is ridiculous.  He has KJ Costello next:

No program in the west, including U$C, has done a better job recently of producing H-man candidates than Stanford — five runner-up finishes in nine years — and in four instances (Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck I, McCaffrey and Love), it was a dark-horse campaign.

Costello gained the requisite experience over the second half of the season, and produced enough big plays, to lay the foundation for a legitimate campaign.

Yes, he’d have to escape Love’s shadow. But as we saw with McCaffrey in ’16, repeat campaigns can be easily derailed.

It's ridiculous because let's face it, he will finish second in the voting.

BC

8) :'(

[JohnR34231]

Don't think this has been posted yet. Anyway, good fuel for discussion.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/Vo...ack-quack/

[JohnR34231]

Don't think this has been posted yet. Anyway, good fuel for discussion.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/11/Vo...ack-quack/

[BostonCard]

It may have already been posted...

http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=18357.0

BC

[BostonCard]

It may have already been posted...

http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=18357.0

BC

[martyup]

Pretty amazing to see Costello named on that list, given how last season started.

[martyup]

Pretty amazing to see Costello named on that list, given how last season started.

[JeffInCorvallis]

With all due respect to Herbert and Costello, who may end up above-average Pac-12 QBs if their progression continues, I'll be quite surprised if either one wins the H-award. Or are even finalists.

[JeffInCorvallis]

With all due respect to Herbert and Costello, who may end up above-average Pac-12 QBs if their progression continues, I'll be quite surprised if either one wins the H-award. Or are even finalists.

[CTcard]

With all due respect to Herbert and Costello, who may end up above-average Pac-12 QBs if their progression continues, I'll be quite surprised if either one wins the H-award. Or are even finalists.

Any one particular player winning the Voldemort is surprising, the odds are long against any particular individual.
By definition, that is much more true for a dark horse candidate.

However, neither are crazy picks for "someone who might emerge as a candidate".

Costello is young, seems to have the basic ingredients for success, and will be on a team that ought to be quite good next year.


Herbert is already a well above-average Pac 12 QB. This year his PER rating is 174.7. That would be first in the Pac 12  and third in the country (well ahead of poster-boys Rosen and Darnold) if he had played enough games to qualify. In the past decade, the only Pac 12 QBs with a higher rating over a season were: Vernon Adams 2015 (the year Oregon was great with him, terrible without) and Marcus Mariotta 2014 (Heistman winner). That's it.

Now that is a little skewed by the fact that Herbert missed some of the better defenses Oregon faced, but Herbert has been remarkably good for a season and a half now, since taking over the job as a true frosh. Pretty amazing for a guy who basically wasn't recruited out of high school. (He was from Eugene, thus the UO offer. Otherwise his offers were Northern Arizona, Portland State, Montana State.)

I don't know enough about Oregon or Cristobal (hey - I don't have a crystal ball on Cristobal) to have a good feeling for their chances of being a top team next year, but outside of Khalil Tate and draft eligible guys who might come back, I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

[CTcard]

With all due respect to Herbert and Costello, who may end up above-average Pac-12 QBs if their progression continues, I'll be quite surprised if either one wins the H-award. Or are even finalists.

Any one particular player winning the Voldemort is surprising, the odds are long against any particular individual.
By definition, that is much more true for a dark horse candidate.

However, neither are crazy picks for "someone who might emerge as a candidate".

Costello is young, seems to have the basic ingredients for success, and will be on a team that ought to be quite good next year.


Herbert is already a well above-average Pac 12 QB. This year his PER rating is 174.7. That would be first in the Pac 12  and third in the country (well ahead of poster-boys Rosen and Darnold) if he had played enough games to qualify. In the past decade, the only Pac 12 QBs with a higher rating over a season were: Vernon Adams 2015 (the year Oregon was great with him, terrible without) and Marcus Mariotta 2014 (Heistman winner). That's it.

Now that is a little skewed by the fact that Herbert missed some of the better defenses Oregon faced, but Herbert has been remarkably good for a season and a half now, since taking over the job as a true frosh. Pretty amazing for a guy who basically wasn't recruited out of high school. (He was from Eugene, thus the UO offer. Otherwise his offers were Northern Arizona, Portland State, Montana State.)

I don't know enough about Oregon or Cristobal (hey - I don't have a crystal ball on Cristobal) to have a good feeling for their chances of being a top team next year, but outside of Khalil Tate and draft eligible guys who might come back, I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

[DC 86]

[I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

Unless Sam Darnold returns, which is a non-zero probability (and maybe even 50/50).

[DC 86]

[I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

Unless Sam Darnold returns, which is a non-zero probability (and maybe even 50/50).

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18357.msg218300#msg218300 date=1513363834]
[I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

Unless Sam Darnold returns, which is a non-zero probability (and maybe even 50/50).
[/quote]

Which is why the full quotation from me was,

but outside of Khalil Tate and draft eligible guys who might come back, I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18357.msg218300#msg218300 date=1513363834]
[I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.

Unless Sam Darnold returns, which is a non-zero probability (and maybe even 50/50).
[/quote]

Which is why the full quotation from me was,

but outside of Khalil Tate and draft eligible guys who might come back, I'd say Herbert is the next most likely Pac 12 Heistman contender.