Posts: 2,995
Threads: 30
Joined: Dec 1969
Guys and specifically Griff78 you are not thinking this out. I remain 100% convinced that Shaw who admittedly prepped the team very well blew it in the end game. And its not close.
First of all, you need to recognize that Stanford was in TOTAL CONTROL of the clock. Stanford was guaranteed the ability to attempt a FG as time expired, no matter what OSU did (or did not) do. So, if thats the goal and it obviously was for Shaw then it is only a question of where you want to be (or potentially be) when taking that final FG try.
Shaw opted to let 30+ seconds drain off the clock and attempt a 34 yarder with 3 seconds left. That just wasnt the best play, even assuming a FG was the best strategy (that is a separate issue, but one I wont bother going into right now). As a reminder, here is what happened on last handful of plays:
1st and 10 at OKST 25 Timeout OKLAHOMA STATE, clock 00:52.
1st and 10 at OKST 25 Stepfan Taylor rush for 6 yards to the OKSt 19.
2nd and 4 at OKST 19 Stepfan Taylor rush for 2 yards to the OKSt 17.
3rd and 2 at OKST 17 Timeout STANFORD, clock 00:03.
3rd and 2 at OKST 17 Timeout OKLAHOMA STATE, clock 00:03.
Stanford has first and 10 at 25 yard line and 52 seconds to go (OSU forced to use its second TO due to injury). Stanford runs the ball and gains 6 yards. Second and 4 with 40+ seconds left. Third and 2 with 30+ seconds left.
Question: Why not run the ball again and possibly get a first down? (and more after that?).
Potential Answer 1: we dont want OSU using its final TO to assure that it has 25 seconds and the ball (whether or not Stanford makes the FG). WRONG! To the extent that is a real concern, Stanford can calculate exactly when it snaps the third down try (call a TO with 25 seconds left; or 20 seconds left or fewer if youre really paranoid).
Potential Answer 2: we want the FG try on third down so that if there is a bad snap, then Stanford can recover the ball, call a TO, and try again. WRONG! We waited until there were 3 seconds left to call our TO, so there was no ability to try again clearly this was not a motivating factor.
Potential Answer 3: we were close enough and didnt want to risk another play. WRONG! If that were the case, then why do anything other than take a centered knee on second down? Is a 36 yard FG versus a 34 yard FG really the magic dividing line? Clearly not. For some inexplicable reason, Shaw decided this was good enough.
Thats not a crazy decision, but its not the decision that gives you the best chance to win. I think that is pretty clear, even if you accept the FG parameter.
Here is what Stanford should have done again, assuming you rule out passing for a TD: run the ball with 20-25 seconds left (you dont even need to use a TO to do that). If you dont get a first down, then you take your FG try no different than what you had before. [A risk of OSU responding with a score of its own with 10-12 seconds left is just not that reasonable to merit consideration indeed, only Stanford fans would consider even 30 seconds and no TOs a risk].
But if you DO get a first down, then you burn a TO and run the ball again. And again. Get as close as you can. Then try the game-winner. That is the scenario that gives you the best chance to win (again, even if you accept that a FG as time expired was the smart play). And the way Stanford was playing on that last drive, I think Stanford would have come awfully close to scoring a TD by running 2-3 more times. And I have no doubt that the FG try would have been a true chippy (or at worst, no worse off than what was actually attempted).
That is the debate. No one is saying Shaw didn't prepare the team well. No one is saying Stanford didn't play well. They clearly outplayed OSU in that game. All I'm saying is that Shaw misplayed the end game (it may have had absolutely zero impact on the final result, but I would have liked to have seen it unfold as above).