(11-05-2018, 11:53 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote: The SEC has no motivation to change. With 4 OOC games, Alabama's marquee non-conference opponent, Louisville, is currently ranked #108 on the composite ranking--it goes down from there. However, the talking heads on all of the sports networks agree that if Georgia upsets Bama in the conference championship, that automatically means that the SEC gets two teams, because Bama can't be left out. In the same conversation, WSU is dismissed as a possibility because their 3-game OOC schedule is weak. At this point, the SEC could switch to a 6-game non-conference schedule, with all home games vs. cupcakes, and get anywhere from 2 to 4 teams in the playoff.
Somehow, I don't think the SEC gets two teams this year. There are only two teams left in the SEC that have fewer than two losses: Georgia and Bama; and for the first time since the 2015 season, Georgia and Alabama meet during the regular season (last game). So scenario one is that Georgia wins and gives Bama it's first loss, and both are sitting at 11-1. Then they meet again in the SEC championship game; and if Georgia wins again, Bama has two losses to the same team. No way they make the CFP. If Bama wins that game, then Georgia has two losses and is eliminated. Scenario two is that Georgia loses during the regular season, plays Bama in the championship game and loses there. That's three losses for Georgia and no CFP. If they beat Bama in the championship game, then there might be a case for accepting a two loss SEC champion (Georgia) and the one-loss runner-up (Bama), because Georgia would have beaten the #1 team in the country. But my expectation is that Bama wins both games; and Georgia, with three losses, will not get a bid to the CFP.
I also don't think Wazzu would stand a chance against either of these teams. The Cougs just don't have the line strength; and some of those bruiser defensive units from the SEC would devastate the Cougar O-line in a way we could not. And Clemson's big, bad orange marauders would turn Minshew into a helmet with a moustache stuck to it. If the following teams can hold serve down the stretch, I see Bama, Clemson, ND and Michigan squaring up in the CFP. If Harbaugh falters, then Oklahoma has a shot. Only if Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State and West Virginia all get a second loss AND Wazzu rolls into and wins the Pac 12 championship in impressive fashion will there be a representative from the Pac 12 in this year's CFP. And if so, I still don't think it will end well for Wazzu.