(02-01-2012, 05:38 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:Recruiting services are not exactly inaccurate. 5 star athletes as a group do better than 4 stars, 4 stars do more than 3 stars, etc.
These services probably systematically undervalue Stanford for several reasons.
1)Â Stanford will not have NCAA academic casualties
2)Â Stanford will have fewer transfers
3)Â These services do not really factor in an athletes intelligence, willingness or ability to study
The third one is big. Smart and hard working kids might not add much individually, but if that ability is common to the entire team then collectively they can do more with schemes, plays, reads, and game day adjustments.
I wonder if in 2014 or 2015 we will realize that once again the services underestimated the collective power of a Stanford recruiting class.
Agreed.
That said, the Wall Street Journal published a story today "The Currency of Signing Day" in which they looked at how well the Rival star rating system actually predicted future professional success. here is what they found:
5 star athletes were drafted 46% of the time
4 star athletes were drafted 19% of the time
3 star athletes were drafted 9% of the time
I think those stats have something for everyone. On the one hand, there is a definite statistical correlation between the star rating system and eventual professional success. But at the same time, more than half of 5 star athletes were never taken by the NFL.
I think this supports your point to a degree. One way of thinking about it is that the raw talent an athlete possesses coming our of high school may account for less than half of their chance of professional success--and presumably their general athletic success in college too. More than half of their chance of success must be accounted for by other things--many of which you just listed in your insightful post.
By the way, to add to your list, I have often thought that Stanford athletes possess a different, sociological advantage. They know they will graduate with a prestigious college degree, and this knowledge tends to reduce self-destructive behavior. Athletes at universities who have self-doubt about ever graduating, or who question whether their degree will actually open any doors for them once their athletic days are over, may be more willing to throw their lives away once they realize they will not be professional athletes. Drugs, crime, domestic violence tend to be symptoms of hopelessness. With graduation rates at 90% and optimistic futures ahead, Stanford athletes have a lot of reasons to take care of themselves.Â
