[M T]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F. If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total. But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points. If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53. In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25. If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total.

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball. In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

[M T]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F. If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total. But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points. If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53. In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25. If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total.

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball. In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

[M T]

Ironically the sport likely most affected by the strict covid regime was women's basketball, so that reasoning may not wash.

No, we can safely say that WVB was more impacted. 

COVID & the requisite protocols caused the loss of practice time, affected practice (on grass or tennis courts), matches (12 matches cancelled, only 10 played), and some players (9 players played in 3 matches; only 8 players for the other 7 matches, where 6 are on the court at once).  The pre-season ranking for WVB was #3 nationally, but they only won 2 matches.

In contrast, WBB moved to different venues and was able to practice together and to play almost all their games.  IIRC, the WBB team did have 2 players out for 2(?) of their 33 games, but they often played about 12 players where only 5 are on the court at once.

Furthermore, WVB is a fall sport, with practice starting normally about September 1.  Remember the fires?  While the team wasn't officially practicing, the fires did affect the players' individual development.

It is impossible to say how practice conditions may have affected injuries.

One article about Meghan McClure describes some of the issues, including being quarantined.

[M T]

Ironically the sport likely most affected by the strict covid regime was women's basketball, so that reasoning may not wash.

No, we can safely say that WVB was more impacted. 

COVID & the requisite protocols caused the loss of practice time, affected practice (on grass or tennis courts), matches (12 matches cancelled, only 10 played), and some players (9 players played in 3 matches; only 8 players for the other 7 matches, where 6 are on the court at once).  The pre-season ranking for WVB was #3 nationally, but they only won 2 matches.

In contrast, WBB moved to different venues and was able to practice together and to play almost all their games.  IIRC, the WBB team did have 2 players out for 2(?) of their 33 games, but they often played about 12 players where only 5 are on the court at once.

Furthermore, WVB is a fall sport, with practice starting normally about September 1.  Remember the fires?  While the team wasn't officially practicing, the fires did affect the players' individual development.

It is impossible to say how practice conditions may have affected injuries.

One article about Meghan McClure describes some of the issues, including being quarantined.

[Farm93]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F.  If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total.  But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points.  If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53.  In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25.  If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total. 

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball.  In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

Your additional analysis is where I imagined the focus should be at this stage.

North Carolina is simply not a power in T&F, so their ability to get lots of points is limited.

Florida, however, is a VERY different story.   T&F team rankings often do not have to align with NCAA final team standings.   Florida COULD have one or two good sprinters.   For the NCAAs those star sprinters could finally run, and win, in multiple events.   With 2 or 3 sprinters having a great weekend a school can finish in the top 5 even if their pre-meet "team" ranking was outside of the top 20.

A key insight into Florida's potential ability to collect points in MTF & WTF in a large meet format was the SEC Championship meet.    It just doesn't look like they have the stars to get a large collection of points.   FWIW - IMHO Stanford WTF has some potential to do a lot better than the team rankings imply because Stanford has some distance runners that could get a lot of points if the race tactics go their way.

Hopefully it all works out.

[Farm93]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F.  If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total.  But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points.  If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53.  In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25.  If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total. 

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball.  In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

Your additional analysis is where I imagined the focus should be at this stage.

North Carolina is simply not a power in T&F, so their ability to get lots of points is limited.

Florida, however, is a VERY different story.   T&F team rankings often do not have to align with NCAA final team standings.   Florida COULD have one or two good sprinters.   For the NCAAs those star sprinters could finally run, and win, in multiple events.   With 2 or 3 sprinters having a great weekend a school can finish in the top 5 even if their pre-meet "team" ranking was outside of the top 20.

A key insight into Florida's potential ability to collect points in MTF & WTF in a large meet format was the SEC Championship meet.    It just doesn't look like they have the stars to get a large collection of points.   FWIW - IMHO Stanford WTF has some potential to do a lot better than the team rankings imply because Stanford has some distance runners that could get a lot of points if the race tactics go their way.

Hopefully it all works out.

[Canalejas]

ASU helps limit the damage by eliminating UNC in the men's golf quarterfinals.

[Canalejas]

ASU helps limit the damage by eliminating UNC in the men's golf quarterfinals.

[fishman]

I still maintain that the Directors Cup should not be awarded this year. Conferences and individual schools were differentially affected by state and local public health rules, such that the playing field (pun intended) was even more unlevel than usual.

Ironically, women's basketball was the most affected by strict covid restrictions, so that argument loses some steam.  Of course Tara and her staff were extraordinarily resourceful and innovative (along with help from Lindy L.) and the team bought into her "flexible" mantra and regime. Quite amazing!

[fishman]

I still maintain that the Directors Cup should not be awarded this year. Conferences and individual schools were differentially affected by state and local public health rules, such that the playing field (pun intended) was even more unlevel than usual.

Ironically, women's basketball was the most affected by strict covid restrictions, so that argument loses some steam.  Of course Tara and her staff were extraordinarily resourceful and innovative (along with help from Lindy L.) and the team bought into her "flexible" mantra and regime. Quite amazing!

[bnarver]

Here are updated totals due to UNC being eliminated from men's golf and OSU getting their rowing points, which I accidently left out.

Stanford      1090.25
UNC             1037.75
Florida          946.5
Ohio St.        817.75
UCLA            738

My views on UNC and Ohio St. don't change.  I think I need to upgrade my prediction on Florida's track and field points.  They may be more like 80ish than 70ish for both men and women, given that the men have finished 1, 2, and 2 over the last 3 tournaments.

The scoring for baseball has changed over the last 2 tournaments, but is not reflected in NACDA's scoring sheet.  It used to be that teams that were eliminated before the regional finals received 25 points.  It didn't matter if a team was 0-2 or 1-2. For the last 2 tournaments, teams that were 0-2 receive 25 points.  Teams that were 1-2 received 37.5 points.

[bnarver]

Here are updated totals due to UNC being eliminated from men's golf and OSU getting their rowing points, which I accidently left out.

Stanford      1090.25
UNC             1037.75
Florida          946.5
Ohio St.        817.75
UCLA            738

My views on UNC and Ohio St. don't change.  I think I need to upgrade my prediction on Florida's track and field points.  They may be more like 80ish than 70ish for both men and women, given that the men have finished 1, 2, and 2 over the last 3 tournaments.

The scoring for baseball has changed over the last 2 tournaments, but is not reflected in NACDA's scoring sheet.  It used to be that teams that were eliminated before the regional finals received 25 points.  It didn't matter if a team was 0-2 or 1-2. For the last 2 tournaments, teams that were 0-2 receive 25 points.  Teams that were 1-2 received 37.5 points.

[BigEasyCard]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

[Jamesy]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

Interesting that Michigan wasn't on our radar in our calculations. 
If we lose the cup this year, the 0 points from FB, WVB and WSOC will be a big factor.

[Jamesy]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

Interesting that Michigan wasn't on our radar in our calculations. 
If we lose the cup this year, the 0 points from FB, WVB and WSOC will be a big factor.

[Canalejas]

So these standings don’t include any of the already completed spring sports?

[Canalejas]

So these standings don’t include any of the already completed spring sports?

[BigEasyCard]

So these standings don’t include any of the already completed spring sports?

No, only through Winter.  We'll need to collectively update these results for Spring if we want visibility before the next release on July 2.

Remaining sports and completion dates are:

Softball, June 9
MW T&F, June 12
Baseball, June 29 or 30

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

So these standings don’t include any of the already completed spring sports?

No, only through Winter.  We'll need to collectively update these results for Spring if we want visibility before the next release on July 2.

Remaining sports and completion dates are:

Softball, June 9
MW T&F, June 12
Baseball, June 29 or 30

Geaux Cardinal!

[BostonCard]

I take it Michigan isn't expected to score much in the spring?

BC

[BostonCard]

I take it Michigan isn't expected to score much in the spring?

BC

[Farm93]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

Interesting that Michigan wasn't on our radar in our calculations. 
If we lose the cup this year, the 0 points from FB, WVB and WSOC will be a big factor.

Michigan is not a big player in Spring sports.   In most years the better BigTen schools get few points after April and several Pac-12 and SEC schools zip to the top.

Florida remains the challenger to watch IMHO,

Football getting zero is really not right.  The NACDA should have altered that scoring to capture the idea that a number of bowls were cancelled and a number of teams opted out of bowl consideration.   They probably should have given the bowl participation type points to any team at or above .500.

[Farm93]

Stanford leads Michigan by half a point:

Division I Learfield IMG College Directors’ Cup Standings - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Fall standings here:

June3Overall DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Final Winter standings here:

June3Overall Winter DI (PDF) - National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (nacda.com)

Geaux Cardinal!

Interesting that Michigan wasn't on our radar in our calculations. 
If we lose the cup this year, the 0 points from FB, WVB and WSOC will be a big factor.

Michigan is not a big player in Spring sports.   In most years the better BigTen schools get few points after April and several Pac-12 and SEC schools zip to the top.

Florida remains the challenger to watch IMHO,

Football getting zero is really not right.  The NACDA should have altered that scoring to capture the idea that a number of bowls were cancelled and a number of teams opted out of bowl consideration.   They probably should have given the bowl participation type points to any team at or above .500.

[fullmetal]

Michigan did finish 4th or 5th in women's rowing, fwiw.  I'm sure that's just noise.  Is the consensus that Florida and UNC are still major threats?

[fullmetal]

Michigan did finish 4th or 5th in women's rowing, fwiw.  I'm sure that's just noise.  Is the consensus that Florida and UNC are still major threats?

[bnarver]

Florida lost their 1st game at their baseball regional.

[bnarver]

Florida lost their 1st game at their baseball regional.

[BigEasyCard]

Florida lost their 1st game at their baseball regional.

As did Michigan.  However, UNC won to stay even with Stanford in the tournament.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Florida lost their 1st game at their baseball regional.

As did Michigan.  However, UNC won to stay even with Stanford in the tournament.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BobK]

Michigan lost first two and gone
Florida in a rain delay late in the game down 19-1

[BobK]

Michigan lost first two and gone
Florida in a rain delay late in the game down 19-1

[BigEasyCard]

Scoring updates from Baseball and Softball.

Baseball
Michigan finishes in 33rd place for 25 points
Florida finishes in 33rd place for 25 points
UNC and UCLA meet in an elimination game in Lubbock today.

Softball
Michigan finishes in 17th place for 50 points
UCLA finishes in third place for 83 points
Stanford finishes in 17th place for 50 points
Florida finishes in 9th place for 64 points

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Scoring updates from Baseball and Softball.

Baseball
Michigan finishes in 33rd place for 25 points
Florida finishes in 33rd place for 25 points
UNC and UCLA meet in an elimination game in Lubbock today.

Softball
Michigan finishes in 17th place for 50 points
UCLA finishes in third place for 83 points
Stanford finishes in 17th place for 50 points
Florida finishes in 9th place for 64 points

Geaux Cardinal!

[BobK]

Ucla 3rd? 4 teams are still playing

That’s said love your posts.

[BobK]

Ucla 3rd? 4 teams are still playing

That’s said love your posts.

[BigEasyCard]

Ucla 3rd?  4 teams are still playing

That’s said love your posts.

Bob, you are correct about UCLA softball.  They finish fifth for 70 points (I think).  I guess my coffee hadn't kicked in yet.

Thanks for the compliment.  The feeling is mutual.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Ucla 3rd?  4 teams are still playing

That’s said love your posts.

Bob, you are correct about UCLA softball.  They finish fifth for 70 points (I think).  I guess my coffee hadn't kicked in yet.

Thanks for the compliment.  The feeling is mutual.

Geaux Cardinal!

[bnarver]

Assuming I'm more accurate than my previous posts, here are the numbers I have for Spring and the total accumulated points

Sport                                       Stanford                 UCLA                  Florida              N. Carolina                Ohio St.
                                          Place     Points      Place     Points      Place     Points       Place     Points         Place     Points
                                                                                                                                                               
Baseball                                                          17           50           49           25         33           37.5                       
Beach volleyball                     7            25          2            90                                                                                          
Women's golf                        5            72.75     15           60           25           47.5                                                       
Men's golf                           37            34.5                                    22           52          5            72.75                    
Women's lacrosse                17            25                                        5            70          3            83                          
Men's lacrosse                                                                                                           3            83                          
Rowing                               2              90                                                                                               6              72
Softball                             17              50          5            78            9            64                                                          
Women's tennis                 17              50          5            73           17           50           3            83           9              64
Men's tennis                      17              50         33           25            1           100          9            64           9              64
Women's outdoor T&F                                                                                                                                                 
Men's outdoor T&F                                                                                                                                                        
Men's volleyball                                                                                                                                                              
Women's water polo            3              55          2            90                                                                                          
 
Fall + Winter                                   770                       413.75                   563                         696.5                     652.5
Total                                             1087.75                  879.75                   971.5                     1119.75                   852.5

Only 19 sports count, so Stanford must drop the points for women's lacrosse, men's golf, and 1 of the 50 pointers (softball, women's tennis, or men's tennis).  NACDA's scoring for this year has changed in some of the bracket sports, and my numbers may disagree in the end.  UCLA does get 78 points for softball according to their scoring chart for baseball and softball. North Carolina has now reached the 15 optional sports limit, so any additional sports must exceed the 26 points they received for men's swimming.  Their next lowest score was 48 points for women's cross country.

---

Sorry for the alignment of the numbers.  They looked good before I posted it.

[bnarver]

Assuming I'm more accurate than my previous posts, here are the numbers I have for Spring and the total accumulated points

Sport                                       Stanford                 UCLA                  Florida              N. Carolina                Ohio St.
                                          Place     Points      Place     Points      Place     Points       Place     Points         Place     Points
                                                                                                                                                               
Baseball                                                          17           50           49           25         33           37.5                       
Beach volleyball                     7            25          2            90                                                                                          
Women's golf                        5            72.75     15           60           25           47.5                                                       
Men's golf                           37            34.5                                    22           52          5            72.75                    
Women's lacrosse                17            25                                        5            70          3            83                          
Men's lacrosse                                                                                                           3            83                          
Rowing                               2              90                                                                                               6              72
Softball                             17              50          5            78            9            64                                                          
Women's tennis                 17              50          5            73           17           50           3            83           9              64
Men's tennis                      17              50         33           25            1           100          9            64           9              64
Women's outdoor T&F                                                                                                                                                 
Men's outdoor T&F                                                                                                                                                        
Men's volleyball                                                                                                                                                              
Women's water polo            3              55          2            90                                                                                          
 
Fall + Winter                                   770                       413.75                   563                         696.5                     652.5
Total                                             1087.75                  879.75                   971.5                     1119.75                   852.5

Only 19 sports count, so Stanford must drop the points for women's lacrosse, men's golf, and 1 of the 50 pointers (softball, women's tennis, or men's tennis).  NACDA's scoring for this year has changed in some of the bracket sports, and my numbers may disagree in the end.  UCLA does get 78 points for softball according to their scoring chart for baseball and softball. North Carolina has now reached the 15 optional sports limit, so any additional sports must exceed the 26 points they received for men's swimming.  Their next lowest score was 48 points for women's cross country.

---

Sorry for the alignment of the numbers.  They looked good before I posted it.