Preview:
We start a difficult gauntlet on Sunday, with North Carolina at Maples, followed by a road trip to Notre Dave and Louisville. We will not be favored to win any of them, although Louisville is not the juggernaut that once knocked us out of the NCAA tourney. The team really--almost desperately--needs to win a game like one of these to instill confidence and optimism, not to mention giving us a chance to make a post season tourney. But I would be a fool to predict a win in any of the next three.
North Carolina is nationally ranked #15, and Massey's computer has them at 16. They are 19-4 on the strength of an elite defense--#6 in the country (again according to Massey.) Their offense is rated #45. For comparison, Stanford's defense is rated 26 and our offense 17. Those are not terrible numbers, and since BOTH teams have significantly better defenses than the opposing team's offense--I think what we could hope for is a bruising defensive battle (as with Pitt) in which the season stats get thrown away and we somehow eek out a win. Stranger things have happened.
Indya Nivar is the North Carolina point guard, meaning we will see our former player for more minutes than we ever saw her play when she was at Stanford. Nivar's stats are not terribly impressive. She has started all 20 games she has played in and averages 23 minutes. She averages 8 ppg and has an assist/turnover ratio of almost exactly 1:1. She shoots the three at only 24% and free throws at only 48%. And yet--she is a starter. I presume her defense is terrific. She does lead her team in steals with 43.
North Carolina's most prolific scorer is Alyssa Ustby at about 11 ppg, but all 5 starters score in the 8-11 point range, so there really is no one in particular to focus the defense on. Ustby is a 6'1" grad student who has played her whole career at North Carolina. She has made a few treys but is primarily an inside presence. She also leads them in rebounds--9.4.
Maria Gakdeng is their big 6'3" center, a senior who last year was on the Lisa Leslie watch list. She makes 63% of her shots, so I presume they are mostly layups. She is who we want Kennedy Umeh to become, and I suspect that Umeh will get a chance to guard this player who has several years more experience than she does.
Lexi Donarsky (did she have to have that first name?) is North Carolina's best three point shooter at 41%, and has made 54 so far this year. That accounts for about 2/3 of her made baskets, so she seems to prefer the perimeter. She is a 6'0" grad student guard who transferred in a year ago from Iowa State.
The final starter is Reniya Kelly, a 5'7" sophomore guard. She hits about 40% of her treys but takes 3/4 of her shots from inside the arc. She is very quick.
Several of these players were ACC all-academic last year, for whatever that is worth. Maybe it means North Carolina no longer gives out "A"s for the asking to any player who will sign up for a "directed reading" course with the right professor. No, that corruption must belong to the Sylvia Hatchell days. (https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/22/us/unc-re...index.html)
On Thursday North Carolina took down Cal 65-52, holding Cal to 19 baskets on 37% shooting. Cal had 16 turnovers--this wasn't Duke--nor can I find a gross rebounding advantage. It seems North Carolina just forced Cal to take a lot of awkward and hasty shots, lowering its percentage to well under its season average. And Cal had very few offensive rebounds--after missing a lot, they were one-and-done.
North Carolina only made 3 treys in the game, so Cal must have defended the perimeter well enough. North Carolina's smallest player--Reniya Kelly--led them with 16 points, none of them from three point range.
We start a difficult gauntlet on Sunday, with North Carolina at Maples, followed by a road trip to Notre Dave and Louisville. We will not be favored to win any of them, although Louisville is not the juggernaut that once knocked us out of the NCAA tourney. The team really--almost desperately--needs to win a game like one of these to instill confidence and optimism, not to mention giving us a chance to make a post season tourney. But I would be a fool to predict a win in any of the next three.
North Carolina is nationally ranked #15, and Massey's computer has them at 16. They are 19-4 on the strength of an elite defense--#6 in the country (again according to Massey.) Their offense is rated #45. For comparison, Stanford's defense is rated 26 and our offense 17. Those are not terrible numbers, and since BOTH teams have significantly better defenses than the opposing team's offense--I think what we could hope for is a bruising defensive battle (as with Pitt) in which the season stats get thrown away and we somehow eek out a win. Stranger things have happened.
Indya Nivar is the North Carolina point guard, meaning we will see our former player for more minutes than we ever saw her play when she was at Stanford. Nivar's stats are not terribly impressive. She has started all 20 games she has played in and averages 23 minutes. She averages 8 ppg and has an assist/turnover ratio of almost exactly 1:1. She shoots the three at only 24% and free throws at only 48%. And yet--she is a starter. I presume her defense is terrific. She does lead her team in steals with 43.
North Carolina's most prolific scorer is Alyssa Ustby at about 11 ppg, but all 5 starters score in the 8-11 point range, so there really is no one in particular to focus the defense on. Ustby is a 6'1" grad student who has played her whole career at North Carolina. She has made a few treys but is primarily an inside presence. She also leads them in rebounds--9.4.
Maria Gakdeng is their big 6'3" center, a senior who last year was on the Lisa Leslie watch list. She makes 63% of her shots, so I presume they are mostly layups. She is who we want Kennedy Umeh to become, and I suspect that Umeh will get a chance to guard this player who has several years more experience than she does.
Lexi Donarsky (did she have to have that first name?) is North Carolina's best three point shooter at 41%, and has made 54 so far this year. That accounts for about 2/3 of her made baskets, so she seems to prefer the perimeter. She is a 6'0" grad student guard who transferred in a year ago from Iowa State.
The final starter is Reniya Kelly, a 5'7" sophomore guard. She hits about 40% of her treys but takes 3/4 of her shots from inside the arc. She is very quick.
Several of these players were ACC all-academic last year, for whatever that is worth. Maybe it means North Carolina no longer gives out "A"s for the asking to any player who will sign up for a "directed reading" course with the right professor. No, that corruption must belong to the Sylvia Hatchell days. (https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/22/us/unc-re...index.html)
On Thursday North Carolina took down Cal 65-52, holding Cal to 19 baskets on 37% shooting. Cal had 16 turnovers--this wasn't Duke--nor can I find a gross rebounding advantage. It seems North Carolina just forced Cal to take a lot of awkward and hasty shots, lowering its percentage to well under its season average. And Cal had very few offensive rebounds--after missing a lot, they were one-and-done.
North Carolina only made 3 treys in the game, so Cal must have defended the perimeter well enough. North Carolina's smallest player--Reniya Kelly--led them with 16 points, none of them from three point range.
