[82lsju]

The parts I found interesting, average net-effective tuition for undergrads was less than $24k, and nearly 90% of undergrads graduated with no student debt.  2026-27 list price tuition is $67.7k so the average tuition discount from list price was ~63%.  It would be interesting to know the median net-effective tuition.  As with last year those with family income <$150k pay no tuition and those with family income <$100k pay no tuition, room or board (room and board is $23k)

"Today, Stanford University announced a 31.7% investment return in its Merged Pool for the year ending June 30, 2026, bringing its 5- and 10-year annualized return to 10.3% and 12.5%, respectively. These returns are net of all internal and external costs, but do not reflect federal excise taxes, which rise to 8.0% this academic year for Stanford and a very small number of other universities.

Stanford’s performance surpassed the 15.5% median return for U.S. college and university endowments last year, as preliminarily reported by Cambridge Associates. Over 5 and 10 years, the median college and university endowment returned 7.2% and 9.9% per year, respectively. Over the same 1-, 5-, and 10-year periods, a typical “70/30” passive portfolio of global stocks and high-quality U.S. bonds returned an annualized 17.8%, 7.4%, and 9.3%, respectively.
...
In fiscal year 2027, beginning Sept. 1, 2026, the Merged Pool will disburse more than $2.2 billion to the university, representing roughly one-fifth of Stanford’s operating budget. Distributions from the Merged Pool support Stanford’s teaching and research, and help make the university accessible and affordable.

Total financial aid and other student support from Stanford resources will reach a record $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2027, with endowment distributions contributing nearly half. With these dedicated resources, Stanford announced that it [did not increase undergraduate tuition] for the 2026-27 academic year and that families of undergraduates with annual incomes below $100,000 pay no tuition, room, or board, while those with [incomes below $150,000 pay no tuition]. Last year, 60% of undergraduate students were awarded financial aid, average net-effective tuition for all undergraduates was less than $24,000, and nearly 90% of students graduated with no student debt.[font=system-ui, -apple-system, 'system-ui', '.SFNSText-Regular', sans-serif]dent debt."[/font]

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/0...LPls821lJw

[82lsju]

The parts I found interesting, average net-effective tuition for undergrads was less than $24k, and nearly 90% of undergrads graduated with no student debt.  2026-27 list price tuition is $67.7k so the average tuition discount from list price was ~63%.  It would be interesting to know the median net-effective tuition.  As with last year those with family income <$150k pay no tuition and those with family income <$100k pay no tuition, room or board (room and board is $23k)

"Today, Stanford University announced a 31.7% investment return in its Merged Pool for the year ending June 30, 2026, bringing its 5- and 10-year annualized return to 10.3% and 12.5%, respectively. These returns are net of all internal and external costs, but do not reflect federal excise taxes, which rise to 8.0% this academic year for Stanford and a very small number of other universities.

Stanford’s performance surpassed the 15.5% median return for U.S. college and university endowments last year, as preliminarily reported by Cambridge Associates. Over 5 and 10 years, the median college and university endowment returned 7.2% and 9.9% per year, respectively. Over the same 1-, 5-, and 10-year periods, a typical “70/30” passive portfolio of global stocks and high-quality U.S. bonds returned an annualized 17.8%, 7.4%, and 9.3%, respectively.
...
In fiscal year 2027, beginning Sept. 1, 2026, the Merged Pool will disburse more than $2.2 billion to the university, representing roughly one-fifth of Stanford’s operating budget. Distributions from the Merged Pool support Stanford’s teaching and research, and help make the university accessible and affordable.

Total financial aid and other student support from Stanford resources will reach a record $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2027, with endowment distributions contributing nearly half. With these dedicated resources, Stanford announced that it [did not increase undergraduate tuition] for the 2026-27 academic year and that families of undergraduates with annual incomes below $100,000 pay no tuition, room, or board, while those with [incomes below $150,000 pay no tuition]. Last year, 60% of undergraduate students were awarded financial aid, average net-effective tuition for all undergraduates was less than $24,000, and nearly 90% of students graduated with no student debt.[font=system-ui, -apple-system, 'system-ui', '.SFNSText-Regular', sans-serif]dent debt."[/font]

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/0...LPls821lJw

[paloalto]

Thanks.  In the article it states;

"The value of the Merged Pool on June 30, 2026, was $61.5 billion. A portion of the endowment consisting of commercial real estate near campus is not part of the Merged Pool. The value of the endowment in aggregate as of August 31, 2026, the university’s fiscal year-end, will be published in Stanford’s financial statements in the coming months."

The actual endowment will be less, not more, than $61.5 billion, right?  I don't understand this.  It just seems like $61.5 billion is too high based on the endowment's track record over the years.

[paloalto]

Thanks.  In the article it states;

"The value of the Merged Pool on June 30, 2026, was $61.5 billion. A portion of the endowment consisting of commercial real estate near campus is not part of the Merged Pool. The value of the endowment in aggregate as of August 31, 2026, the university’s fiscal year-end, will be published in Stanford’s financial statements in the coming months."

The actual endowment will be less, not more, than $61.5 billion, right?  I don't understand this.  It just seems like $61.5 billion is too high based on the endowment's track record over the years.

[82lsju]

Thanks.  In the article it states;

"The value of the Merged Pool on June 30, 2026, was $61.5 billion. A portion of the endowment consisting of commercial real estate near campus is not part of the Merged Pool. The value of the endowment in aggregate as of August 31, 2026, the university’s fiscal year-end, will be published in Stanford’s financial statements in the coming months."

The actual endowment will be less, not more, than $61.5 billion, right?  I don't understand this.  It just seems like $61.5 billion is too high based on the endowment's track record over the years.

SMC manages the $61.5 billion Merged Pool, which represents the substantial majority of Stanford’s investable assets. Endowment funds constitute three-quarters of the Merged Pool. Other investment assets include non-endowment gifts, reserves, and funds relating to Stanford Hospital and the Stanford Medicine Children’s Health.

and

Investment returns generated from Endowment funds support the University’s mission. For example, the Endowment will disburse more than $2.2 billion in Fiscal Year 2027 

https://smc.stanford.edu/our-mission/

75% of $61.5b is ~$46b, cross-checking if the $2.2b disbursement is ~5% of the endowment then the endowment would be ~$44b, so I'd SWAG the endowment at $45b and rest of the merged pool ~$16.5b.

[82lsju]

Thanks.  In the article it states;

"The value of the Merged Pool on June 30, 2026, was $61.5 billion. A portion of the endowment consisting of commercial real estate near campus is not part of the Merged Pool. The value of the endowment in aggregate as of August 31, 2026, the university’s fiscal year-end, will be published in Stanford’s financial statements in the coming months."

The actual endowment will be less, not more, than $61.5 billion, right?  I don't understand this.  It just seems like $61.5 billion is too high based on the endowment's track record over the years.

SMC manages the $61.5 billion Merged Pool, which represents the substantial majority of Stanford’s investable assets. Endowment funds constitute three-quarters of the Merged Pool. Other investment assets include non-endowment gifts, reserves, and funds relating to Stanford Hospital and the Stanford Medicine Children’s Health.

and

Investment returns generated from Endowment funds support the University’s mission. For example, the Endowment will disburse more than $2.2 billion in Fiscal Year 2027 

https://smc.stanford.edu/our-mission/

75% of $61.5b is ~$46b, cross-checking if the $2.2b disbursement is ~5% of the endowment then the endowment would be ~$44b, so I'd SWAG the endowment at $45b and rest of the merged pool ~$16.5b.

[Mick]

Stanford will be in fine financial shape, this century and next, I suspect. Same with other elite American private universities, large research universities and public universities. Smaller, less prominent private universities are substantially at risk over the next generation. 

Right now, there are 2,488 four-year colleges and universities in America. 25 years ago, the NCES counted 2,450 four-year degree-granting institutions in 2000–01: 622 public and 1,828 private. 

So the number hasn't changed much, though the makeup has. Today, 716 are public, 1,488 are private/non-profit, and 284 are private/for profit. I suspect that in another 25 years, we'll be down to 2,000 colleges and universities, more or less. We'll lose 500, mostly from the private/nonprofit sector.

There are five issues, I think:

1. The demographic cliff has arrived. WICHE projects the number of American HS students will decline about 13% between the 2025 peak and 2041, primarily because fewer children were born after the Great Recession. WICHE
2. The pricing model is showing significant stress. At private nonprofit colleges, the average institutional tuition discount for first-time, full-time undergraduates is now about 57% for 2025–26. In other words, colleges are effectively giving back more than half of their published tuition price through institutional grants in order to attract students. NACUBO So, roughly 90% of first-year students at the private institutions participating in NACUBO's study receive institutional grant aid. 
3. College is expensive, but tuition itself hasn't simply risen relentlessly in real terms recently. NCES data show average public four-year in-state tuition of about $9,000 in 2024–25, and after adjusting for inflation that figure was actually below its level a decade earlier. The bigger affordability problem includes housing, food, fees and other living costs—not merely tuition. National Center for Education Statistics
4. The financial pain will be highly unequal. A Harvard, Stanford or Princeton can draw nationally and internationally and has enormous financial resources. A small regional college with 1,500 students, modest endowment, limited pricing power and heavy reliance on tuition has much less room to maneuver. NACUBO explicitly warns that escalating tuition discounts can create greater financial stress for tuition-dependent private institutions.
5. Small endowments. Personally, I think a $1 billion+ endowment will help stave off financial ruin. Only 89 schools have $1 billion endowments or more, ranging from Harvard down to SCU ($1.67 bils.) and Fordham ($1.05 billion).

Lastly, I think state schools will fall under pressure, particularly as the states have to accommodate aging populations. Here's California's percentage of the budget dedicated to post-high school education compared with retirement payments:

Fiscal year                        Higher education                  Retirement*

1985-86                                ~15.0%                            ~3.6%
1995-96                                ~11.7%                            ~3.9%
2005-06                                ~11.4%                            ~4.1%
2015-16                                ~12.3%                            ~6.0%
2025-26                                ~10.0%                            ~6.1%

* Doesn't include city, county or other non-state based retiree payments

Other California costs rising most quickly as a percentage of the overall budget:

1. Health care / Medi-Cal, double the percentage (from 10.5% to 20% of General fund spending in that time).
2. K-12 education grew from about 20% to 36%. Thanks to Prop 98 (1988), which materially changed the structure of the budget.
3. Public employee pensions and health benefits.
4. Corrections and prisons.
5. Health and human services beyond Medi-Cal.

[Mick]

Stanford will be in fine financial shape, this century and next, I suspect. Same with other elite American private universities, large research universities and public universities. Smaller, less prominent private universities are substantially at risk over the next generation. 

Right now, there are 2,488 four-year colleges and universities in America. 25 years ago, the NCES counted 2,450 four-year degree-granting institutions in 2000–01: 622 public and 1,828 private. 

So the number hasn't changed much, though the makeup has. Today, 716 are public, 1,488 are private/non-profit, and 284 are private/for profit. I suspect that in another 25 years, we'll be down to 2,000 colleges and universities, more or less. We'll lose 500, mostly from the private/nonprofit sector.

There are five issues, I think:

1. The demographic cliff has arrived. WICHE projects the number of American HS students will decline about 13% between the 2025 peak and 2041, primarily because fewer children were born after the Great Recession. WICHE
2. The pricing model is showing significant stress. At private nonprofit colleges, the average institutional tuition discount for first-time, full-time undergraduates is now about 57% for 2025–26. In other words, colleges are effectively giving back more than half of their published tuition price through institutional grants in order to attract students. NACUBO So, roughly 90% of first-year students at the private institutions participating in NACUBO's study receive institutional grant aid. 
3. College is expensive, but tuition itself hasn't simply risen relentlessly in real terms recently. NCES data show average public four-year in-state tuition of about $9,000 in 2024–25, and after adjusting for inflation that figure was actually below its level a decade earlier. The bigger affordability problem includes housing, food, fees and other living costs—not merely tuition. National Center for Education Statistics
4. The financial pain will be highly unequal. A Harvard, Stanford or Princeton can draw nationally and internationally and has enormous financial resources. A small regional college with 1,500 students, modest endowment, limited pricing power and heavy reliance on tuition has much less room to maneuver. NACUBO explicitly warns that escalating tuition discounts can create greater financial stress for tuition-dependent private institutions.
5. Small endowments. Personally, I think a $1 billion+ endowment will help stave off financial ruin. Only 89 schools have $1 billion endowments or more, ranging from Harvard down to SCU ($1.67 bils.) and Fordham ($1.05 billion).

Lastly, I think state schools will fall under pressure, particularly as the states have to accommodate aging populations. Here's California's percentage of the budget dedicated to post-high school education compared with retirement payments:

Fiscal year                        Higher education                  Retirement*

1985-86                                ~15.0%                            ~3.6%
1995-96                                ~11.7%                            ~3.9%
2005-06                                ~11.4%                            ~4.1%
2015-16                                ~12.3%                            ~6.0%
2025-26                                ~10.0%                            ~6.1%

* Doesn't include city, county or other non-state based retiree payments

Other California costs rising most quickly as a percentage of the overall budget:

1. Health care / Medi-Cal, double the percentage (from 10.5% to 20% of General fund spending in that time).
2. K-12 education grew from about 20% to 36%. Thanks to Prop 98 (1988), which materially changed the structure of the budget.
3. Public employee pensions and health benefits.
4. Corrections and prisons.
5. Health and human services beyond Medi-Cal.