(03-13-2013, 05:55 PM)garvin link Wrote:Keeping him around next year will be a disaster that will keep rippling through the program for years. There are at least four scholarships at the end of next season: Aaron Bright, Josh Huestis, Dwight Powell, and John Gage. If Andy Brown leaves, make that five; if Robbie Lemons has been converted from a walk-on to a scholarship player sometime along the way (I don't know), make that six.
Dawkins will have trouble filling that class if he's having a poor season and there's a widespread expectation that he'll be gone at the end of the season. And to the extent that he can recruit a good class, how many of those guys will ask out of their LOIs if he gets fired? Yeah, we can be hard-asses and say a deal's a deal, but that will essentially make the next coach a prison warden, presiding over a bunch of guys who don't want to be here.
Muir should fire Dawkins now and give the new coach a chance to make something of the huuge next class. But I don't think it will happen.
garvin knows how much it hurts me to say this, but he gets a +1 and an "absolutely correct" from me for this post.Â
The way I figure it, if we get a new [and good, of course] coach for next season, we will get the "fresh air" bounce [for lack of a better term] that often comes when a group of reasonably talented players that has underperformed in an increasingly oppressive/downbeat environment finally gets to try something new. So next year is a pleasant surprise, despite the fact that we know it's a "one-and-done" scenario given all of the graduations. The following year [2014-15] is almost certainly worse, just because there is virtually no way for a brand new coach to get great people in the fall signing period of his first year [especially when he has to fill up as many spots as we will have to fill]. However, on the basis of the predicted reasonably successful 2013-14 season, he may very well be able to line up some good recruits for the following season, so we pick up again starting in 2015-16 and the future looks good. Sure it's speculation, but it's not crazy.
The alternative? Just as garvin says, we once again tank next year; everyone good doesn't want to sign with us in the early period because they're pretty sure we're going to tank again and they KNOW that means Dawkins will go. Then, assuming Dawkins is finally gone, we get a new coach [probably not as good as we could get this year, since he knows he will not have all of next year's seniors] who will have the world's thinnest roster in 2014-15. At best, he does as badly as predicted in the previous scenario AND he's a year behind in recruiting already. So, without those recruits, there goes 2015-16. If he somehow manages to turn things around, we may get some decent recruits and there's a chance that 2016-17 begins to look up. More likely though, we're not looking at reasonable success until 2017-2018.
No way I'm paying for seat licenses [excuse me, hitting the necessary $$$ Buck Club level] the next few years to see that happen...
