12-15-2013, 07:13 PM
In addition to being the 100th edition, this Rose Bowl could be the last that is played between the Big Ten and Pac-12 champions for several years. In the college football playoff system, there are two ways in which the champion of each conference could meet in the Granddaddy:
1) The Rose Bowl is not a playoff semi-final (two out of every three years), and neither the Pac-12 champion nor the Big Ten champion is in the top four of the final standings.
2) The Rose Bowl is a semi-final (one out of every three years), and the Big Ten and Pac-12 Champion are ranked #1 and #4 OR #2 and #3. Also, because the selection committee does not want to give the higher ranked team a road environment, the Pac-12 team would in all likelihood need to be the #1 or #2 seed.
If one conference champion is in the top four and the other is not, they would not play each other in any circumstance.
Using the final BCS standings as a proxy for the committees selection process, you can see that the traditional matchup will not be as common as it was in the BCS era:
1998: one in, one out (one champion is in the top 4 and the other is not no chance of meeting)
1999: both out (traditional Rose Bowl if it is a non-playoff year for the Rose Bowl)
2000: one in, one out
2001: one in, one out
2002: #2 and #4 would not meet in semi-final
2003: #3 and #4 would not meet in semi-final
2004: one in, one out
2005: #1 and #4 USC vs. Ohio State (traditional Rose Bowl if it IS a playoff year for the bowl)
2006: one in, one out
2007: one in, one out
2008: Both out
2009: both out
2010: one in, one out
2011: one in, one out
2012: both out (because Ohio State was ineligible)
2013: one in, one out
In this 16-year snapshot, both conference champions would have missed the playoff in four of those years, and they were seeded #1 and #4 in one year (2005). On average (depending upon which years the Rose Bowl was a semi-final), the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions would have met 3 times, or 18.75% of the time.
Obviously this is a small sample size, but it is clear to me that the traditional Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion matchup will become much more of a rarity. That is too bad, but it does make this Rose Bowl all the more special.
1) The Rose Bowl is not a playoff semi-final (two out of every three years), and neither the Pac-12 champion nor the Big Ten champion is in the top four of the final standings.
2) The Rose Bowl is a semi-final (one out of every three years), and the Big Ten and Pac-12 Champion are ranked #1 and #4 OR #2 and #3. Also, because the selection committee does not want to give the higher ranked team a road environment, the Pac-12 team would in all likelihood need to be the #1 or #2 seed.
If one conference champion is in the top four and the other is not, they would not play each other in any circumstance.
Using the final BCS standings as a proxy for the committees selection process, you can see that the traditional matchup will not be as common as it was in the BCS era:
1998: one in, one out (one champion is in the top 4 and the other is not no chance of meeting)
1999: both out (traditional Rose Bowl if it is a non-playoff year for the Rose Bowl)
2000: one in, one out
2001: one in, one out
2002: #2 and #4 would not meet in semi-final
2003: #3 and #4 would not meet in semi-final
2004: one in, one out
2005: #1 and #4 USC vs. Ohio State (traditional Rose Bowl if it IS a playoff year for the bowl)
2006: one in, one out
2007: one in, one out
2008: Both out
2009: both out
2010: one in, one out
2011: one in, one out
2012: both out (because Ohio State was ineligible)
2013: one in, one out
In this 16-year snapshot, both conference champions would have missed the playoff in four of those years, and they were seeded #1 and #4 in one year (2005). On average (depending upon which years the Rose Bowl was a semi-final), the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions would have met 3 times, or 18.75% of the time.
Obviously this is a small sample size, but it is clear to me that the traditional Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion matchup will become much more of a rarity. That is too bad, but it does make this Rose Bowl all the more special.


