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OK, the run-down on scholarships:
Our 2014 roster currently has 12 players listed, and we know Brooks, McPhee and Kaylee Johnson are coming in to take the three remaining scholarships, so we start all even.Â
There is a little room for doubt, though, even there. I think Bri Roberson did not initially have a scholarship, but she and Ruef took the two freed up when Toni and Ally medically retired. Ruef of course is now gone, and it is obvious that Bri is going to be able to keep that scholarship for a second year since it would otherwise be wasted. But I do not know if Tara made a multi-year commitment to Bri or not, or whether she was thought to be a walk-on who would get any extra scholarships that happened to be available. That would be private information between them. So we just don't know if there might be some extra flexibility in the scholarships or not. Â
For 2015 Greenfield, Orrange, Payne, and Bonnie Samuelson complete their eligibility, so that means a minimum of 4 to give to the incoming class of 2015. Jasmine Camp and Alex Green are part of that famous "sixpack" but they each have a medical redshirt so either or both could potentially be back for a fifth year. I have heard Amy say quite emphatically, however, that a fifth year is never guaranteed to any athlete--that the decision to grant someone a year beyond their graduation is based exclusively on the best interests of the team. (So, for example, Michelle Harrison did not get a fifth year, but did receive Tara's help in transferring to Utah for a final year of eligibility there.) So that means we could have up to 6 for 2015--even 7 if the Roberson scholarship is not promised. But given that 2016 looks more promising than 2015, I would not be at all surprised if both Jasmine and Alex got an extra year to save those two scholarship for 2016. Amber will have graduated and having a couple of extra senior guards could not hurt. So assuming that happens and assuming that Bri keeps her scholarship too, that would give us 4 scholarships for 2015, two of which have been committed so far.
For 2016 Camp and Green will be out of eligibility assuming they were given fifth years, and Tess Picknell will graduate, giving us a total of 3 to award, one of which has been committed so far (barring any medical retirements or other unforeseen developments.)
One other thing to keep in mind--the fact that a player has committed does not necessarily mean they are getting a scholarship. Almost always it does, but as with Bri Roberson we know that a walk-on can commit and then be funded as scholarships come available. Our latest recruit, for example, was seriously considering Harvard which offers no athletic scholarships. Would she have come to Stanford for its combination of basketball and academics even without a scholarship, but as a preferred walk-on? Interesting question.
Summary: I expect we have 4 to give in 2015 and 3 to give in 2016. Given KLS's decision I half expect Tara to save one of the 4 (perhaps it goes to a walk-on for a year) and do 3 this year and 4 next. And if the right commits do not break our way between now and letter of intent day, perhaps she will stop with just the two that have committed and give 5 next year. (By the way, I thought at first we just had 3 this year but Bob corrected me--who else but our resident basketball guru! Of course after this it all depends on how those 5th years break.)
More interesting is the distribution of those scholarships to guards vs. bigs. I imagine it will get much harder for guards to get an offer after this year given how many great guards we are attracting and the commitment to Wilson, but the welcome mat for posts will be a mile long.Â