[pcgoode]

With a day plus behind us, time to turn to this Saturday's contest.  Does anyone have much insight into our opponent this year?  They are 4 - 0 and have a top 10 ranking, but that may be a hangover from their victory over a Michigan team that has shown itself to be pretty mediorce.  A few things that came up on a quick search I performed are that the Domers basically retooled their entire offensive line before the Syracuse game, they don't have a great running game and they are somewhat thin in their receiving corps talent.  Our defense should be a complete shock to their system if it continues playing the way it has.  I am not clear how good their defense is - they haven't really played anyone yet, so hard to judge based on their body of work.

[pcgoode]

With a day plus behind us, time to turn to this Saturday's contest.  Does anyone have much insight into our opponent this year?  They are 4 - 0 and have a top 10 ranking, but that may be a hangover from their victory over a Michigan team that has shown itself to be pretty mediorce.  A few things that came up on a quick search I performed are that the Domers basically retooled their entire offensive line before the Syracuse game, they don't have a great running game and they are somewhat thin in their receiving corps talent.  Our defense should be a complete shock to their system if it continues playing the way it has.  I am not clear how good their defense is - they haven't really played anyone yet, so hard to judge based on their body of work.

[jaymon]

I was just thinking along the same lines but with a different angle. How often does a higher rated team hosting an opponent at home have the betting line against them? I'm sure it happens with injuries to key positions, but other than that, it seems rather strange. Does this happen more than i realize? <insert ranking system rant here>

[jaymon]

I was just thinking along the same lines but with a different angle. How often does a higher rated team hosting an opponent at home have the betting line against them? I'm sure it happens with injuries to key positions, but other than that, it seems rather strange. Does this happen more than i realize? <insert ranking system rant here>

[Irish Jacky]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

We're both in for a very tough game this Saturday.  I think it will come down to us having the better quarterback.  We win 24-13.

[Irish Jacky]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

We're both in for a very tough game this Saturday.  I think it will come down to us having the better quarterback.  We win 24-13.

[Hulk01]

Someone posted that he assumes Notre Dame's defense is better than Washington's or USC's.

If Notre Dame’s defense even equals Washington’s or USC’s, it is time to believe in miracles.

According to their latest depth chart, their defense returns only two starters.  But it’s even worse than that.  None of the other nine starters were listed on last year’s opening two-deep.  So they return two starters--and none of their backups. 

They lost DLs Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix in this summer's second round; OLB Prince Shembo in the fourth; and CB Bennet Jackson in the sixth.  Last year’s other starting CB, the very good Keivare Russel, and their other projected starting DE, Ishaq Williams, were among the players declared ineligible in the alleged recruiting scandal.  The wipe out was so thorough that I recognized almost none of the names on the Irish defensive two-deep except true freshman Andrew Trumbetti, a second team DE whom we recruited.

Tbey’re allowing only about 11 points a game, but the most prolific offense they’ve faced belongs to Rice.  Honest.  Rice ranks 80th in the nation in scoring. 

The Irish rank 40th in the nation for yards allowed per rush and 61st for yards allowed per pass.  If you are facing offenses that average 92d in the nation, those are the numbers you'd project for a below-average defense

Sheldon Day is their best defensive player, but he’s not Leonard Williams or either of Washington’s defensive linemen.  Their linebackers couldn't crack their two deep last year. 

If Notre Dame looks good defensively against us this Saturday, it won’t be all their doing.

[Hulk01]

Someone posted that he assumes Notre Dame's defense is better than Washington's or USC's.

If Notre Dame’s defense even equals Washington’s or USC’s, it is time to believe in miracles.

According to their latest depth chart, their defense returns only two starters.  But it’s even worse than that.  None of the other nine starters were listed on last year’s opening two-deep.  So they return two starters--and none of their backups. 

They lost DLs Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix in this summer's second round; OLB Prince Shembo in the fourth; and CB Bennet Jackson in the sixth.  Last year’s other starting CB, the very good Keivare Russel, and their other projected starting DE, Ishaq Williams, were among the players declared ineligible in the alleged recruiting scandal.  The wipe out was so thorough that I recognized almost none of the names on the Irish defensive two-deep except true freshman Andrew Trumbetti, a second team DE whom we recruited.

Tbey’re allowing only about 11 points a game, but the most prolific offense they’ve faced belongs to Rice.  Honest.  Rice ranks 80th in the nation in scoring. 

The Irish rank 40th in the nation for yards allowed per rush and 61st for yards allowed per pass.  If you are facing offenses that average 92d in the nation, those are the numbers you'd project for a below-average defense

Sheldon Day is their best defensive player, but he’s not Leonard Williams or either of Washington’s defensive linemen.  Their linebackers couldn't crack their two deep last year. 

If Notre Dame looks good defensively against us this Saturday, it won’t be all their doing.

[washingtonismoney]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

Of course, deploying the same logic against you guys makes you look worse. You haven't visited an opponent stadium. You beat lousy Michigan, Syracuse and Purdue. Washington, at 4-0, is better than all of those teams and we beat them on the road.

And, sorry, not impressed by Golson until he does it against a real defense that actually knows how to line up to take away the bubble screen.

[washingtonismoney]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

Of course, deploying the same logic against you guys makes you look worse. You haven't visited an opponent stadium. You beat lousy Michigan, Syracuse and Purdue. Washington, at 4-0, is better than all of those teams and we beat them on the road.

And, sorry, not impressed by Golson until he does it against a real defense that actually knows how to line up to take away the bubble screen.

[FarmBoy]

Of course, deploying the same logic against you guys makes you look worse. You haven't visited an opponent stadium. You beat lousy Michigan, Syracuse and Purdue. Washington, at 4-0, is better than all of those teams and we beat them on the road.

My sarcasm meter may be off, but I think that IJ is responding to the OP's comment about Michigan not being a quality win.

This should be a nice yard stick for both teams. ND will get to prove if its offense is at all good going against one of the best D's in the nation. Stanford will be able to show if the OLine is going to gel at all this year and if a RB can learn how to NOT chop block on key passing situations.

[FarmBoy]

Of course, deploying the same logic against you guys makes you look worse. You haven't visited an opponent stadium. You beat lousy Michigan, Syracuse and Purdue. Washington, at 4-0, is better than all of those teams and we beat them on the road.

My sarcasm meter may be off, but I think that IJ is responding to the OP's comment about Michigan not being a quality win.

This should be a nice yard stick for both teams. ND will get to prove if its offense is at all good going against one of the best D's in the nation. Stanford will be able to show if the OLine is going to gel at all this year and if a RB can learn how to NOT chop block on key passing situations.

[OutsiderFan]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

We're both in for a very tough game this Saturday.  I think it will come down to us having the better quarterback.  We win 24-13.

The thing is Stanford's defense has the ability to make QBs play very poorly.  Golson may be better, but he has to play Stanford's defense.  Hogan gets to play the worst defense of the two.  Makes for an intriguing matchup for sure.  But honestly, last time Stanford played at the home of the Irish and their seven best friends, Stanford had by far and away the worst QB in Josh Nunes, and ND probably had the better defense.  Hogan is not awesome but much better than Nunes.

[OutsiderFan]

Of course, you really beat up on UC Davis-----UC Davis!!!----and Army.  You should be so proud.  Washington?  Piffle.

We're both in for a very tough game this Saturday.  I think it will come down to us having the better quarterback.  We win 24-13.

The thing is Stanford's defense has the ability to make QBs play very poorly.  Golson may be better, but he has to play Stanford's defense.  Hogan gets to play the worst defense of the two.  Makes for an intriguing matchup for sure.  But honestly, last time Stanford played at the home of the Irish and their seven best friends, Stanford had by far and away the worst QB in Josh Nunes, and ND probably had the better defense.  Hogan is not awesome but much better than Nunes.

[Hulk01]

Some folks remember that as we were landing our stellar 2012 class--including our entire current OL--Notre Dame had a good class.  (Scout ranked our class #7, and Notre Dame’s 16th

But most of the elite recruits from that class are gone.
5* CB Tee Shepard transferred before his first spring practice at ND, and was attending JC at last report.
5* QB Gunner Kiel transferred to Cincinnati in 2013.
4* WR Justin Ferguson transferred to Western Michigan.
4* WR Devonte Neal transferred back home to Arizona in 2013.
4* RB William Mahone was arrested in June and kicked off the team (and school, I think)
4* CB Keivare Russell was declared ineligible this fall.

That has left them with just three four or five star player plus eight other recruits from that class, assuming all those lower-rated players still are on the tea,  And their 2011 class lost elite DE Aaron Lynch and 4 star OL Jordan Prestwood to Arizona Western Community College.  And they lost Eddie Vanderdoes, the 5* star DE in the following class, to a transfer to UCLA.

They recruit well, to be sure.  But how you can keep those kids down on the campus, after they've seen South Bend? 

[Hulk01]

Some folks remember that as we were landing our stellar 2012 class--including our entire current OL--Notre Dame had a good class.  (Scout ranked our class #7, and Notre Dame’s 16th

But most of the elite recruits from that class are gone.
5* CB Tee Shepard transferred before his first spring practice at ND, and was attending JC at last report.
5* QB Gunner Kiel transferred to Cincinnati in 2013.
4* WR Justin Ferguson transferred to Western Michigan.
4* WR Devonte Neal transferred back home to Arizona in 2013.
4* RB William Mahone was arrested in June and kicked off the team (and school, I think)
4* CB Keivare Russell was declared ineligible this fall.

That has left them with just three four or five star player plus eight other recruits from that class, assuming all those lower-rated players still are on the tea,  And their 2011 class lost elite DE Aaron Lynch and 4 star OL Jordan Prestwood to Arizona Western Community College.  And they lost Eddie Vanderdoes, the 5* star DE in the following class, to a transfer to UCLA.

They recruit well, to be sure.  But how you can keep those kids down on the campus, after they've seen South Bend? 

[needle]

The Irish rank 40th in the nation for yards allowed per rush and 61st for yards allowed per pass. 

Notre Dame is giving up 3.30 yards per rush, while Washington is giving up 3.25 yards per carry. USC is giving up a whopping 5.45 yards per rush.

As far as yards allowed per pass, Notre Dame is giving up 6.93 yards per attempt. USC is only giving up 5.41 yards per attempt, while Washington is giving up 7.51 yards per attempt.

We'll have a better idea after Saturday, but I think it's certainly quite possible ND's defense as a unit is better than Washington or USC.

[needle]

The Irish rank 40th in the nation for yards allowed per rush and 61st for yards allowed per pass. 

Notre Dame is giving up 3.30 yards per rush, while Washington is giving up 3.25 yards per carry. USC is giving up a whopping 5.45 yards per rush.

As far as yards allowed per pass, Notre Dame is giving up 6.93 yards per attempt. USC is only giving up 5.41 yards per attempt, while Washington is giving up 7.51 yards per attempt.

We'll have a better idea after Saturday, but I think it's certainly quite possible ND's defense as a unit is better than Washington or USC.

[needle]

Also, ND has faced four opponents.

Out of that group, three out of the four have their lowest point totals of the season against ND.

The other, Rice, scored 17 against ND and only 10 against Texas A&M.

So, I kind of think ND has a better than average defense. But it's still pretty early to know for sure.

[needle]

Also, ND has faced four opponents.

Out of that group, three out of the four have their lowest point totals of the season against ND.

The other, Rice, scored 17 against ND and only 10 against Texas A&M.

So, I kind of think ND has a better than average defense. But it's still pretty early to know for sure.

[Hulk01]

The average offense Notre Dame has faced ranks 91st in the country; the best offense they have played, as mentioned in an earlier post, belongs to the Rice Owls

Notre Dame's key defensive numbers actually are slightly worse than you would project facing offenses that far below average. 

They start five true sophomores on their defense.  Seven of their second team defenders are true freshmen. 

[Hulk01]

The average offense Notre Dame has faced ranks 91st in the country; the best offense they have played, as mentioned in an earlier post, belongs to the Rice Owls

Notre Dame's key defensive numbers actually are slightly worse than you would project facing offenses that far below average. 

They start five true sophomores on their defense.  Seven of their second team defenders are true freshmen. 

[Spiny_Norman]

It is possible that ND may get Russell (and the other suspended players) back this week.  From Kelly's presser after Syracuse:

Q. The last one from me is the timetable that you laid out for us last week with the five players, is that still in play? Any new information given to you on that that you can share?
COACH KELLY: Yeah, it appears from all that I've heard over the last 72 hours since we've talked that everything has been consistent in what we talked about, that there should be some resolution here by the end of the week.

http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-...14aah.html

Let's pay attention to what he says during the pre-Stanford presser.  Some writer is sure to ask him again about these guys.

[Spiny_Norman]

It is possible that ND may get Russell (and the other suspended players) back this week.  From Kelly's presser after Syracuse:

Q. The last one from me is the timetable that you laid out for us last week with the five players, is that still in play? Any new information given to you on that that you can share?
COACH KELLY: Yeah, it appears from all that I've heard over the last 72 hours since we've talked that everything has been consistent in what we talked about, that there should be some resolution here by the end of the week.

http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-...14aah.html

Let's pay attention to what he says during the pre-Stanford presser.  Some writer is sure to ask him again about these guys.

[Mick]

Penalties may decide this one.  My guess is 17-7, Stanford.

[Mick]

Penalties may decide this one.  My guess is 17-7, Stanford.

[martyup]

expect a loss

Hang in their Ferrari.  Don't lose faith now.  Don't give into the dark side of fear and despair. Every great team has obstacles to overcome on its journey to glory.  We are heading into the meat of our season with the #1 ranked D in the nation.  If our O can catch a break or two and continue to gel, we'll be fine.  If we lose, we'll help each other survive it right here on theCardBoard.

[martyup]

expect a loss

Hang in their Ferrari.  Don't lose faith now.  Don't give into the dark side of fear and despair. Every great team has obstacles to overcome on its journey to glory.  We are heading into the meat of our season with the #1 ranked D in the nation.  If our O can catch a break or two and continue to gel, we'll be fine.  If we lose, we'll help each other survive it right here on theCardBoard.

[thunder_chik]

I for one am looking forward to a very close game (sorry, it probably will be another nailbiter!).  Teams are well matched. N*D's Golson is more dynamic than Hogan, but our D is stouter.  N*D team is reportedly unsatisfied with its performance against Syracuse (turned the ball over 5 times=3 fumbles, 2 interceptions including a pick-6).  They had an "ugly win", as did we.  N*D hasn't really been tested in its first four games; we've played two ranked teams, lost one.  They've scored 140 points to our 110; they've held opponents to 46 points to our 23.  Five of their players who were suspended for alleged "academic fraud" August 15 may be back on the field Saturday (4 of the 5 are defensive players).  We are for the most part still apparently healthy (correct me if I'm wrong).  As of this writing, we are a 1.5 point favorite.  Haven't been able to find out who the officiating crew will be (Pac 12 again?), but let's assume we could be subject to some less-than-accurate penalties, e.g., whistles blown too soon or too late, missed or bogus PI calls.
I'm sensing it could be a one-point game, 21-20.  Hoping Stanford comes out on top.  Team with fewer mistakes (turnovers, penalties) wins.  Go Cardinal!

[thunder_chik]

I for one am looking forward to a very close game (sorry, it probably will be another nailbiter!).  Teams are well matched. N*D's Golson is more dynamic than Hogan, but our D is stouter.  N*D team is reportedly unsatisfied with its performance against Syracuse (turned the ball over 5 times=3 fumbles, 2 interceptions including a pick-6).  They had an "ugly win", as did we.  N*D hasn't really been tested in its first four games; we've played two ranked teams, lost one.  They've scored 140 points to our 110; they've held opponents to 46 points to our 23.  Five of their players who were suspended for alleged "academic fraud" August 15 may be back on the field Saturday (4 of the 5 are defensive players).  We are for the most part still apparently healthy (correct me if I'm wrong).  As of this writing, we are a 1.5 point favorite.  Haven't been able to find out who the officiating crew will be (Pac 12 again?), but let's assume we could be subject to some less-than-accurate penalties, e.g., whistles blown too soon or too late, missed or bogus PI calls.
I'm sensing it could be a one-point game, 21-20.  Hoping Stanford comes out on top.  Team with fewer mistakes (turnovers, penalties) wins.  Go Cardinal!

[StanFan88]

I for one am looking forward to a very close game

+1

[StanFan88]

I for one am looking forward to a very close game

+1

[thunder_chik]

Ahem, and in mentioning "fewer mistakes", I should include missed field goals.

[thunder_chik]

Ahem, and in mentioning "fewer mistakes", I should include missed field goals.

[Hulk01]

What makes Golston "dynamic"?  He's had three runs of over ten yards this season.  He gets sacked just as often.  He's averaging 2.67 yards per carry and 18 inches more per carry on non-sacks than Hogan.  His passer rating is not distinguishable from Hogan's, and he hasn't faced a pass defense as good as USC's or Washington's.

Maybe he looks like he should be dynamic.  Nothing other than his photos hint at that, and every metric you can use say that he's isn't--unless, of course, our definition of it covers Hogan, too.

[Hulk01]

What makes Golston "dynamic"?  He's had three runs of over ten yards this season.  He gets sacked just as often.  He's averaging 2.67 yards per carry and 18 inches more per carry on non-sacks than Hogan.  His passer rating is not distinguishable from Hogan's, and he hasn't faced a pass defense as good as USC's or Washington's.

Maybe he looks like he should be dynamic.  Nothing other than his photos hint at that, and every metric you can use say that he's isn't--unless, of course, our definition of it covers Hogan, too.

[BostonCard]

Name Team Yr Pos G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating Att/G Yards/G
25 Everett Golson Notre Dame SR QB 4 135 94 69.6 1142 8.5 11 2 164.62 33.8 285.5
57 Kevin Hogan Stanford SR QB 4 100 71 71.0 883 8.8 8 2 167.57 25.0 220.8

Hogan completes a touch larger percent of his passes, gets slightly more yards per attempt, has fewer touchdowns, the same number of interceptions, and has a slightly higher rating.  From where I sit, they look comparable, except that Golson has attempted 35% more passes than Hogan (and of course the defenses that each faced).

Looking at ESPN's QBR:

PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
Everett Golson, ND 28.2 5.3 -4.4 1.1 30.2 190 82.5 80.2
Kevin Hogan, STAN 18.1 -6.2 -3.7 -0.6 7.6 142 53.3 53.4

Here Golson comes across looking a lot better in both run and pass (though not in sacks).  ESPN is very opaque about the QBR; it says what factors go into it, but not the exact statistics that are are used:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...e-football

I generally like the idea, but worry a bit that the methodology is way too cumbersome, and that it "overthinks" the statistics.  But I offer it anyways as one assessment that Golson may be the better QB, even when adjusting for the opposition (Total QBR supposedly adjusts for the opponent).

BC

[BostonCard]

Name Team Yr Pos G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating Att/G Yards/G
25 Everett Golson Notre Dame SR QB 4 135 94 69.6 1142 8.5 11 2 164.62 33.8 285.5
57 Kevin Hogan Stanford SR QB 4 100 71 71.0 883 8.8 8 2 167.57 25.0 220.8

Hogan completes a touch larger percent of his passes, gets slightly more yards per attempt, has fewer touchdowns, the same number of interceptions, and has a slightly higher rating.  From where I sit, they look comparable, except that Golson has attempted 35% more passes than Hogan (and of course the defenses that each faced).

Looking at ESPN's QBR:

PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
Everett Golson, ND 28.2 5.3 -4.4 1.1 30.2 190 82.5 80.2
Kevin Hogan, STAN 18.1 -6.2 -3.7 -0.6 7.6 142 53.3 53.4

Here Golson comes across looking a lot better in both run and pass (though not in sacks).  ESPN is very opaque about the QBR; it says what factors go into it, but not the exact statistics that are are used:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...e-football

I generally like the idea, but worry a bit that the methodology is way too cumbersome, and that it "overthinks" the statistics.  But I offer it anyways as one assessment that Golson may be the better QB, even when adjusting for the opposition (Total QBR supposedly adjusts for the opponent).

BC

[thunder_chik]

Thanks, Boston Card, for sharing the ESPN stats.  I've just been looking at the same numbers after reading Hulk01's comment.  When you compare the two QBs over the SEASON'S four games, they look pretty similar in terms of percentage completed, interceptions, ratings, etc.  Yes, they've both made some dumb/comparable mistakes (fumbles and interceptions).  However, I have a hard time imagining Hogan completing 25 or 26 consecutive passes (the exact number for Golson is in dispute, but at the very least he set a ND record and came within one of the FBS record).  Not bad for a guy who sat out a year.  Golson's rating for the Syracuse game=183.6 and a few comments that he could be in the Voldemort mix; Hogan's rating for the Washington game=127.9.  For the season as a whole, their respective ratings are 164.6 and 167.8.
Perhaps labeling Golson "dynamic" was an overstatement, but at least he was more fun to watch in the Syracuse game than Hogan was in the Washington game.  Must be the Catholic in me, mea culpa...

[thunder_chik]

Thanks, Boston Card, for sharing the ESPN stats.  I've just been looking at the same numbers after reading Hulk01's comment.  When you compare the two QBs over the SEASON'S four games, they look pretty similar in terms of percentage completed, interceptions, ratings, etc.  Yes, they've both made some dumb/comparable mistakes (fumbles and interceptions).  However, I have a hard time imagining Hogan completing 25 or 26 consecutive passes (the exact number for Golson is in dispute, but at the very least he set a ND record and came within one of the FBS record).  Not bad for a guy who sat out a year.  Golson's rating for the Syracuse game=183.6 and a few comments that he could be in the Voldemort mix; Hogan's rating for the Washington game=127.9.  For the season as a whole, their respective ratings are 164.6 and 167.8.
Perhaps labeling Golson "dynamic" was an overstatement, but at least he was more fun to watch in the Syracuse game than Hogan was in the Washington game.  Must be the Catholic in me, mea culpa...