[stupac2]

I think there is an easy way for the Pats to prove innocence here.  Inflate a dozen balls as per their normal protocol, test them to ensure they are at or above 12.5 psi, then store them at 50 degrees for several hours, and retest.  If they come out at 10.5 psi, then we have an explanation that does not involve post facto manipulation of the balls.  If they don't drop, then I would have a hard time conceiving of any explanation that didn't involve somebody letting air out.

...Are you joking here? They did pretty much exactly that:

“So we simulated a game-day situation in terms of the preparation of the footballs and where the balls [were] at various [points] in the day or night, as the case was Sunday. I would say that our preparation process for the footballs is what we do -- I can’t speak for anybody else, it’s what we do -- and that [preparation] process we have found raises the PSI approximately one pound [per square inch]. That process of creating a tackiness, a texture, the right feel, whatever that feel is, a sensation for the quarterback, that process elevates the PSI approximately one pound [per square inch] based on what our study showed, which was multiple footballs, multiple examples in the process as we would do for a game. It’s not one football.

“When the footballs are delivered to the officials’ locker room, the officials were asked to inflate them to 12.5 PSI, what exactly they did, I don’t know. But, for the purposes of our study, that’s what we did. We set them at 12.5 [PSI]. That’s at the discretion of the official regardless of what we ask for, it’s the official’s discretion to put them where he wants. Again, that’s done in a controlled climate. The footballs are prepared in our locker room. They are delivered to the officials’ locker room, which is a controlled environment. It’s whatever we have here, is what we have there.

“When the footballs go out onto the field into game conditions, whatever those conditions are, whether it’s hot and humid, cold and damp, cold and dry, whatever it is, that’s where the footballs are played with and that’s where the measurements would be different -- possibly different -- from what they are in a controlled environment and that’s what we found. We found that once the footballs were on the field over an extended period of time, in other words they were adjusted to the climatic conditions and also the fact that the footballs, which an equilibrium without the rubbing process after that had run its course and the footballs reached an equilibrium, that they were down approximately 1.5 pounds per square inch. When we brought the footballs back in after that process and retested them in a controlled environment as we have here, then those measurements rose approximately 0.5 PSI. So the net of 1.5 [PSI] back down 0.5 [PSI] is approximately 1 PSI.

“Now, we all know that air pressure is a function of the atmospheric conditions, it’s a function of that. So, if there’s activity in the ball relative to the rubbing process, I think that explains why when we gave them to the officials and the officials put it at 12.5 [PSI] if that’s in fact what they did, that once the ball reached its equilibrium state, it probably was closer to 11.5 [PSI]. That’s just our measurements, we can’t speak specifically to what happened because we have no way of touching the footballs other than once the officials have them, we don’t touch them except for when we play with them in the game. But, it’s similar to the concept of when you get into your car and the light comes on and it says low tire pressure because the car has been sitting in the driveway outside overnight and you start it up and you start driving it and the light goes off -- it’s a similar concept to that. So the atmospheric conditions as well as the true equilibrium of the football is critical to the measurement.

It's long, but everything they said fits with what we know. If the Pats pre-game preparation (whatever it is, he didn't detail it) raises the pressure by 1 PSI, then air is let out so it immediately reads 12.5, the actual internal pressure would be 11.5. When you then take it out into the cold, a presumably 20-25-degree drop on this night, it loses another 1 PSI and you get to 10.5. When you then fill those back up (as the officials presumably did, I don't honestly know exactly what they did at halftime) it'll measure within range after the game.

[stupac2]

I think there is an easy way for the Pats to prove innocence here.  Inflate a dozen balls as per their normal protocol, test them to ensure they are at or above 12.5 psi, then store them at 50 degrees for several hours, and retest.  If they come out at 10.5 psi, then we have an explanation that does not involve post facto manipulation of the balls.  If they don't drop, then I would have a hard time conceiving of any explanation that didn't involve somebody letting air out.

...Are you joking here? They did pretty much exactly that:

“So we simulated a game-day situation in terms of the preparation of the footballs and where the balls [were] at various [points] in the day or night, as the case was Sunday. I would say that our preparation process for the footballs is what we do -- I can’t speak for anybody else, it’s what we do -- and that [preparation] process we have found raises the PSI approximately one pound [per square inch]. That process of creating a tackiness, a texture, the right feel, whatever that feel is, a sensation for the quarterback, that process elevates the PSI approximately one pound [per square inch] based on what our study showed, which was multiple footballs, multiple examples in the process as we would do for a game. It’s not one football.

“When the footballs are delivered to the officials’ locker room, the officials were asked to inflate them to 12.5 PSI, what exactly they did, I don’t know. But, for the purposes of our study, that’s what we did. We set them at 12.5 [PSI]. That’s at the discretion of the official regardless of what we ask for, it’s the official’s discretion to put them where he wants. Again, that’s done in a controlled climate. The footballs are prepared in our locker room. They are delivered to the officials’ locker room, which is a controlled environment. It’s whatever we have here, is what we have there.

“When the footballs go out onto the field into game conditions, whatever those conditions are, whether it’s hot and humid, cold and damp, cold and dry, whatever it is, that’s where the footballs are played with and that’s where the measurements would be different -- possibly different -- from what they are in a controlled environment and that’s what we found. We found that once the footballs were on the field over an extended period of time, in other words they were adjusted to the climatic conditions and also the fact that the footballs, which an equilibrium without the rubbing process after that had run its course and the footballs reached an equilibrium, that they were down approximately 1.5 pounds per square inch. When we brought the footballs back in after that process and retested them in a controlled environment as we have here, then those measurements rose approximately 0.5 PSI. So the net of 1.5 [PSI] back down 0.5 [PSI] is approximately 1 PSI.

“Now, we all know that air pressure is a function of the atmospheric conditions, it’s a function of that. So, if there’s activity in the ball relative to the rubbing process, I think that explains why when we gave them to the officials and the officials put it at 12.5 [PSI] if that’s in fact what they did, that once the ball reached its equilibrium state, it probably was closer to 11.5 [PSI]. That’s just our measurements, we can’t speak specifically to what happened because we have no way of touching the footballs other than once the officials have them, we don’t touch them except for when we play with them in the game. But, it’s similar to the concept of when you get into your car and the light comes on and it says low tire pressure because the car has been sitting in the driveway outside overnight and you start it up and you start driving it and the light goes off -- it’s a similar concept to that. So the atmospheric conditions as well as the true equilibrium of the football is critical to the measurement.

It's long, but everything they said fits with what we know. If the Pats pre-game preparation (whatever it is, he didn't detail it) raises the pressure by 1 PSI, then air is let out so it immediately reads 12.5, the actual internal pressure would be 11.5. When you then take it out into the cold, a presumably 20-25-degree drop on this night, it loses another 1 PSI and you get to 10.5. When you then fill those back up (as the officials presumably did, I don't honestly know exactly what they did at halftime) it'll measure within range after the game.