[BostonCard]

Ctcard, it is entirely possible for a 1 seed to exceed expected wins.  For one thing, there are four one seeds, while you might say they are expected to make the final four, only one of them can win 6 games.  Secondly, and more importantly, the expected number of wins is not a whole number, and is not based on the better seed always expected to beat a lower seed; it is probabilistic.  Thus 8 and 9 seeds, which historically have been even in the first round, and occasionally beat a 1 seed in the second, have an expected number of wins of just over 0.5.  One seeds, which often get upset on the road to the final four, aren't necessarily expected to win 4 games.  So, a 1 seed that makes it to the final four can still outperform the expected number of wins.

Here are the expected number of wins



In case you are wondering about SRS:

SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-Division I games are excluded from the ratings. My colleague Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method.

BC

[BostonCard]

Ctcard, it is entirely possible for a 1 seed to exceed expected wins.  For one thing, there are four one seeds, while you might say they are expected to make the final four, only one of them can win 6 games.  Secondly, and more importantly, the expected number of wins is not a whole number, and is not based on the better seed always expected to beat a lower seed; it is probabilistic.  Thus 8 and 9 seeds, which historically have been even in the first round, and occasionally beat a 1 seed in the second, have an expected number of wins of just over 0.5.  One seeds, which often get upset on the road to the final four, aren't necessarily expected to win 4 games.  So, a 1 seed that makes it to the final four can still outperform the expected number of wins.

Here are the expected number of wins



In case you are wondering about SRS:

SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-Division I games are excluded from the ratings. My colleague Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method.

BC