04-11-2015, 12:02 AM
I'd like to see Muir challenged on the idea that college basketball has materially changed because of the one-and-done rule, especially outside of the top 5 teams or so. If anyone has access to the data, it would be very instructive to find out whether the game really has changed or not. The NBA changed its draft rules in 2005 (starting in the 2006 draft), which was the first to disallow students to go straight from high school to the NBA. But there were never that many players (between 2001 and the change in the rules, only 28 players, or about 6 a year, went straight from high school to the NBA). It is hard for me to believe that having an additional 6 or so players in college who would have been in the NBA would make that dramatic of an impact, beyond the Kentucky's and Duke's of the world being that much better than everyone else. But, for example, Utah and Oregon made it to the NCAA tournament this year; do either of them have a one-and-done? (I assume Arizona does, does UCLA)
So, here is the analysis I'd love to see. First off, since 2000 (capturing both before and after the rule change), how many freshmen have declared for the NBA draft each year? How many in the Pac-10/12. Secondly, since 2000, what proportion of Pac-10/Pac-12 teams had at least one freshman declare for the NBA draft each year? Finally, what proportion of NCAA tournament teams had a freshman declare for the NCAA draft each year? My guess is that the numbers have no changed dramatically, and that the "one-and-done" while probably relevant in the final four (though again, Wisconsin would be an exception, no?), is probably not relevant to teams expected to be seeded 4 - 10, which is I think is what we can reasonably expect for the team most years.
A decade ago, when the administration was adamant that admissions standards had not changed for athletes at Stanford, a few enterprising individuals looked at the data and proved that admissions requirements had, in fact, gone up during the Mamlet era. That brought about important change that made our recent success in football possible. This may be a similar case, where we are tolerating mediocrity because we lack the data to see otherwise.
BC
So, here is the analysis I'd love to see. First off, since 2000 (capturing both before and after the rule change), how many freshmen have declared for the NBA draft each year? How many in the Pac-10/12. Secondly, since 2000, what proportion of Pac-10/Pac-12 teams had at least one freshman declare for the NBA draft each year? Finally, what proportion of NCAA tournament teams had a freshman declare for the NCAA draft each year? My guess is that the numbers have no changed dramatically, and that the "one-and-done" while probably relevant in the final four (though again, Wisconsin would be an exception, no?), is probably not relevant to teams expected to be seeded 4 - 10, which is I think is what we can reasonably expect for the team most years.
A decade ago, when the administration was adamant that admissions standards had not changed for athletes at Stanford, a few enterprising individuals looked at the data and proved that admissions requirements had, in fact, gone up during the Mamlet era. That brought about important change that made our recent success in football possible. This may be a similar case, where we are tolerating mediocrity because we lack the data to see otherwise.
BC