[washingtonismoney]

Here's why Muir's one-and-done argument is so dumb. It effectively argues that the talent disparity raised by one-and-done is so great that Stanford can't keep up. But Muir ignores that we're dealing with a dynamic situation -- that is, even if the number of one-and-dones increases, that can be counterbalanced by changes in the talent of upperclassmen.

Here's the total conference talent drafted by the NBA between 2005-2008, excepting Stanford:

2008:
OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Russell Westbrook (4th)
Kevin Love (5th)
Jerryd Bayless (11th)
Ryan Anderson (21st)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37th)
Kyle Weaver (38th)
Malik Hairston (48th)
Devon Hardin (50th)
Maarty Leunen (54th)
(9 picks)

2007:
Spencer Hawes (10th)
Nick Young (15th)
Aaron Brooks (26th)
Arron Afflalo (27th)
Gabe Pruitt (32nd)
Marcus Williams (33rd)
(6 picks)

2006:
Brandon Roy (6th)
Jordan Farmar (26th)
Bobby Jones (37th)
Leon Powe (49th)
Ryan Hollins (50th)
Hassan Adams (54th)
(6 picks)

2005:
Channing Frye (8th)
Ike Diogu (9th)
Nate Robinson (21st)
Salim Stoudamire (31st)
Dijon Thompson (54th)
(5 picks)

An average of 6.5 picks per year, in other words.

From 2009-2014:
2009: Harden (3rd); Hill (8th); DeRozan (9th); Holiday (17th); Collison (21st); Gibson (26th); Pendergraph (31st); Brockman (38th); Budinger (44th) = 8 picks
2010: Quincy Pondexter (26th) = 1 pick
2011: Derrick Williams (2nd); Klay Thompson (11th); Alec Burks (12th); Nikola Vucevic (16th); Tyler Honeycutt (35th); Malcolm Lee (43rd); Isaiah Thomas (60th) = 7 picks
2012: Terrence Ross (8th); Jared Cunningham (24th) = 2 picks
2013: Muhammad (14th); Solomon Hill (23rd); Andre Roberson (26th); Crabbe (31st); Felix (33rd); Jerrett (40th); Kazemi (54th) = 7 picks
2014: Gordon (4th); LaVine (13th); Adams (22nd); Wilcox (28th); Anderson (30th): Johnson (42nd); = 6 picks
----
5.2 picks per year.

But wait, that difference still understates the superior talent in the pre-Dawkins era. Keep in mind that the conference expanded and the 5.2 picks per year are spread out over a greater number of teams during the Dawkins era. And keep in mind that a greater proportion of one-and-dones these days are drafted for potential rather than college production. (See Jerrett, LaVine and Muhammad.) And keep in mind that (in my subjective belief), being drafted in, say, 2008 is more impressive than some of the weaker drafts in the Dawkins sample.

In other words, any suggestion that Dawkins is facing greater talent than before is incorrect. If there's a greater talent disparity now than before, the wound is self-inflicted. If Muir truly believes this argument, he is not all that sharp.

[washingtonismoney]

Here's why Muir's one-and-done argument is so dumb. It effectively argues that the talent disparity raised by one-and-done is so great that Stanford can't keep up. But Muir ignores that we're dealing with a dynamic situation -- that is, even if the number of one-and-dones increases, that can be counterbalanced by changes in the talent of upperclassmen.

Here's the total conference talent drafted by the NBA between 2005-2008, excepting Stanford:

2008:
OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Russell Westbrook (4th)
Kevin Love (5th)
Jerryd Bayless (11th)
Ryan Anderson (21st)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37th)
Kyle Weaver (38th)
Malik Hairston (48th)
Devon Hardin (50th)
Maarty Leunen (54th)
(9 picks)

2007:
Spencer Hawes (10th)
Nick Young (15th)
Aaron Brooks (26th)
Arron Afflalo (27th)
Gabe Pruitt (32nd)
Marcus Williams (33rd)
(6 picks)

2006:
Brandon Roy (6th)
Jordan Farmar (26th)
Bobby Jones (37th)
Leon Powe (49th)
Ryan Hollins (50th)
Hassan Adams (54th)
(6 picks)

2005:
Channing Frye (8th)
Ike Diogu (9th)
Nate Robinson (21st)
Salim Stoudamire (31st)
Dijon Thompson (54th)
(5 picks)

An average of 6.5 picks per year, in other words.

From 2009-2014:
2009: Harden (3rd); Hill (8th); DeRozan (9th); Holiday (17th); Collison (21st); Gibson (26th); Pendergraph (31st); Brockman (38th); Budinger (44th) = 8 picks
2010: Quincy Pondexter (26th) = 1 pick
2011: Derrick Williams (2nd); Klay Thompson (11th); Alec Burks (12th); Nikola Vucevic (16th); Tyler Honeycutt (35th); Malcolm Lee (43rd); Isaiah Thomas (60th) = 7 picks
2012: Terrence Ross (8th); Jared Cunningham (24th) = 2 picks
2013: Muhammad (14th); Solomon Hill (23rd); Andre Roberson (26th); Crabbe (31st); Felix (33rd); Jerrett (40th); Kazemi (54th) = 7 picks
2014: Gordon (4th); LaVine (13th); Adams (22nd); Wilcox (28th); Anderson (30th): Johnson (42nd); = 6 picks
----
5.2 picks per year.

But wait, that difference still understates the superior talent in the pre-Dawkins era. Keep in mind that the conference expanded and the 5.2 picks per year are spread out over a greater number of teams during the Dawkins era. And keep in mind that a greater proportion of one-and-dones these days are drafted for potential rather than college production. (See Jerrett, LaVine and Muhammad.) And keep in mind that (in my subjective belief), being drafted in, say, 2008 is more impressive than some of the weaker drafts in the Dawkins sample.

In other words, any suggestion that Dawkins is facing greater talent than before is incorrect. If there's a greater talent disparity now than before, the wound is self-inflicted. If Muir truly believes this argument, he is not all that sharp.