[Farm93]

FWIW - It probably will not be the Track & Field meet that will be the key.  The real key might become the CWS.  If UCLA does not make top 4, that would be helpful.  If they are playing in the 3 game championship series, then that would be troubling.

My personal projections get Stanford 1385 or so.  The most important aspirational tally is that men's golf will finish in the top 10.  Given the nature of golf that is a shaky assumption.  However, even a few individual results in track & field would add to the current 1320 level.  That's how the 1,350 - 1,380 range is constructed.  Women's golf, tennis and rowing can add to the total with top 5 finishes, but Stanford already has 10 women's teams with 60+ points.  So the women's side is solid.

UCLA has all kinds of scoring possibilities left, but also has fewer solid scores in reserve.  So early departures hurt them a lot.  If their teams play in the NCAA events at levels consistent with current rankings, UCLA probably finishes in the 1330 - 1360 range with the unpredictable men's track standings creating my variability.  However, UCLA has 4-6 teams with credible NCAA team title aspirations (Baseball, women's golf, softball, women's tennis, men's tennis & men's golf).  If any of those 6 win a team title, and the others finish near their current rankings then UCLA probably finishes above Stanford's total.  A good May for UCLA probably gets UCLA's total to 1420 or so.

For Stanford's cup chances it really is more about UCLA's performances than Stanford's performances now.

[Farm93]

FWIW - It probably will not be the Track & Field meet that will be the key.  The real key might become the CWS.  If UCLA does not make top 4, that would be helpful.  If they are playing in the 3 game championship series, then that would be troubling.

My personal projections get Stanford 1385 or so.  The most important aspirational tally is that men's golf will finish in the top 10.  Given the nature of golf that is a shaky assumption.  However, even a few individual results in track & field would add to the current 1320 level.  That's how the 1,350 - 1,380 range is constructed.  Women's golf, tennis and rowing can add to the total with top 5 finishes, but Stanford already has 10 women's teams with 60+ points.  So the women's side is solid.

UCLA has all kinds of scoring possibilities left, but also has fewer solid scores in reserve.  So early departures hurt them a lot.  If their teams play in the NCAA events at levels consistent with current rankings, UCLA probably finishes in the 1330 - 1360 range with the unpredictable men's track standings creating my variability.  However, UCLA has 4-6 teams with credible NCAA team title aspirations (Baseball, women's golf, softball, women's tennis, men's tennis & men's golf).  If any of those 6 win a team title, and the others finish near their current rankings then UCLA probably finishes above Stanford's total.  A good May for UCLA probably gets UCLA's total to 1420 or so.

For Stanford's cup chances it really is more about UCLA's performances than Stanford's performances now.