[CTcard]

The two Football Outsiders projections have weighed in -- and they look pretty solid for us: Bill Connelly's S&P puts us at #11, and FEI puts us at #13.

It is a little odd to run a projection of an after-the-fact descriptive performance stat. But, at least Connelly qualitatively tells us what he is doing - as far as I can tell Fremeau does not.

From Connelly there are a couple of interesting bits.

His two most important categories are the weighted performance over the past 5 years and "the likely changes associated with each team's returning starter figures". Since the latter is apparently not just number of returning starters, but changes from past performance, it is at least partially the same thing as the 5 year weighted past performance criterion.

I was rather amused at this juxtaposition:
"recruiting rankings are relatively solid predictive stats"
followed by,
"I blend them together based on what has produced the best results in the past. That means ... recruiting carrying the least [weight]."
That's not quite a contradiction, but close.
[url=http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/5/5382140/recruiting-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right?_ga=1.134040525.234824359.1405719794][/url]

[CTcard]

The two Football Outsiders projections have weighed in -- and they look pretty solid for us: Bill Connelly's S&P puts us at #11, and FEI puts us at #13.

It is a little odd to run a projection of an after-the-fact descriptive performance stat. But, at least Connelly qualitatively tells us what he is doing - as far as I can tell Fremeau does not.

From Connelly there are a couple of interesting bits.

His two most important categories are the weighted performance over the past 5 years and "the likely changes associated with each team's returning starter figures". Since the latter is apparently not just number of returning starters, but changes from past performance, it is at least partially the same thing as the 5 year weighted past performance criterion.

I was rather amused at this juxtaposition:
"recruiting rankings are relatively solid predictive stats"
followed by,
"I blend them together based on what has produced the best results in the past. That means ... recruiting carrying the least [weight]."
That's not quite a contradiction, but close.
[url=http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/5/5382140/recruiting-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right?_ga=1.134040525.234824359.1405719794][/url]