[BostonCard]

Ignore ties for a moment.  Even if each hole was a 50-50 deal.  She would have only had a 25% chance of winning both holes, and a 12.5% chance of doing that AND winning in extra holes.  Of course, playing the same number of strokes as your opponent at a hole is very common.  Given the Davis merely needed to "halve" either the 17th or 18th.  The probability of a Davis victory after the 16th was probably well in excess of 95%.

Yeah, the probability of halving a hole is fairly high.  In the final round, 34 out of the 84 holes (40.4%) were halved.  Assuming that was the actual probability of halving the hole, and the probability of winning was half of the rest, then Maria's chances of winning three consecutive holes was 2.6% going into the 17th hole*.

(the probability was a little higher because in reality, she only had to win the first two holes; then she could have won or halved any subsequent hole, so her probability of winning overall was 4.4%.  Another interesting aspect was the fact that although overall, 40% of holes were halved, in the Davis/Stackhouse match only 2 holes were halved; a remarkable 17 out of 19 were won by one or the (and, specifically, 9 by Stackhouse and 8 by Davis).

But the numbers only reinforce your point.  After 16 holes, the fat lady was warming up her pipes.

BC

[BostonCard]

Ignore ties for a moment.  Even if each hole was a 50-50 deal.  She would have only had a 25% chance of winning both holes, and a 12.5% chance of doing that AND winning in extra holes.  Of course, playing the same number of strokes as your opponent at a hole is very common.  Given the Davis merely needed to "halve" either the 17th or 18th.  The probability of a Davis victory after the 16th was probably well in excess of 95%.

Yeah, the probability of halving a hole is fairly high.  In the final round, 34 out of the 84 holes (40.4%) were halved.  Assuming that was the actual probability of halving the hole, and the probability of winning was half of the rest, then Maria's chances of winning three consecutive holes was 2.6% going into the 17th hole*.

(the probability was a little higher because in reality, she only had to win the first two holes; then she could have won or halved any subsequent hole, so her probability of winning overall was 4.4%.  Another interesting aspect was the fact that although overall, 40% of holes were halved, in the Davis/Stackhouse match only 2 holes were halved; a remarkable 17 out of 19 were won by one or the (and, specifically, 9 by Stackhouse and 8 by Davis).

But the numbers only reinforce your point.  After 16 holes, the fat lady was warming up her pipes.

BC